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WI: General Secretary Reagan? Part 4
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Douglas Muir  
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 More options May 5 2000, 5:00 pm
Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if
From: Douglas Muir <douglas.m...@yale.edu>
Date: 2000/05/05
Subject: Re: WI: General Secretary Reagan? Part 4

Nich Hills wrote:

I love it.  Particularly:

>  Reagan vas  chusd zis guy, you know?"

and

> Not you Al.  Someone with a brain.  Jeanne."

and

> The Soviet Union is now, officially, the Great Satan.
> Ruhollah Khomeini public downgrades George H Bush to
> 'Lesser Spotted Satan.'  Behind the scenes, there are
> also efforts to downsize Saddam Hussein's Satan rating;
> the better to prosecute the war with the new Great
> Satan.

Excellent.

Doug M.


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Nich Hills  
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 More options May 6 2000, 5:00 pm
Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if
From: Nich Hills <nhi...@ActOnline.com.au>
Date: 2000/05/06
Subject: WI: General Secretary Reagan? Part 4
G'day,

[Disclaimer: The following is a work of fiction, set in an
alternative universe.  Any resemblance to any persons,
living or dead, is purely coincidental.]

President Bush excused himself from the meeting of the
'Kitchen Cabinet'.  He had a state banquet for the visiting
Japanese PM that night and his stomach was feeling a little
queasy, so he was going to rest and try to settle it.

No sooner had he left the room than the Secretary of State
jumped to his feet and yelled "I'm in charge!"

"Al, shut up and sit down!" growled Vice-President Kemp.  He
turned to the Defence Secretary "What's the situation, Cap?"

Weinberger looked glum.  "It's only a small force: Moskva,
Kiev, a few cruisers and a dozen destroyers.  Our Fifth
Fleet could brush them aside easily but ..."  his voice
trailed off.

"What's the problem?" Kemp asked.

"It's a legitimate blockade, Jack.  The Soviet Union has
declared a state of war on both Iran and Pakistan.  They are
entitled to set up an exclusion zone."

"Over the entire <gerund> Gulf!?" exclaimed General Haig.

"Al, I'm warning you.  One more time and you're out."  Kemp
turned to the Attorney-General.  "Isn't waging aggressive
war a crime under the UN Charter?"

"Ah, yes Mr Vice-President" the A-G squirmed uncomfortably
in a chair that was too small for his considerable bulk.
"But this isn't actually an aggressive war.  We gave the
Soviets a casus belli against Pakistan and Iran when we
allowed them to be used as a base of operations for
insurgents against the USSR's ally, the government of
Afghanistan.  If we move against the blockading force it
would be we who were committing an Act of War."

"But this is crazy" the Veep thought out loud.  "We can't
directly help the Iranians; the American public still thinks
the Ayatollah is a Shi'ite Head.  But don't we have an
alliance with Pakistan?  SEATO, CENTO, something like that"

The Secretary of State looked miserable.  Kemp sighed.  "You
may speak, Al."

"We *did* have an alliance with Pakistan under SEATO."  The
General looked accusingly at the honorary visitor to the
Kitchen Cabinet sitting on his right.

"Vell, ven the South Viednamese Goffenment fell; there
didn'd seem much poind in keeping the Dready going" the
Secretary of State Emeritus explained.  "Ve knew all thad
Domino Theory sduff vas chusd so much Shiessen.  Ve thoughd
Brezhnev vas going to liff forever.  Back then, Reagan vas
chusd zis guy, you know?"

Haig thought bitterly to himself: "If foreign-born Americans
were allowed to run for President; he'd've lost that accent
ten years ago."

Kemp summarised "So there's nothing we can do to lift the
blockade of the Persian Gulf in the short term, short of war
with the USSR.  If we do nothing, what's going to happen in
the longer term?"

Colby, the CIA director spoke: "The Iranians will hang
tough.  They're crazy sons-of-bitches.  A daily bombing
of Teheran by Badgers is only going to make them mad."

"But Pakistan?"

"Sir, the Generals there'll fold like a napkin.  I'm
already pulling out all the assets I can that we've got
in the country.  I'm reckoning that in 48 hours the
government in Islamabad will be handing over everyone
from the Mujahadeen camps into the waiting arms of the
Operation Firebird processing centres across the
border."

The Vice-President took this in.  "OK.  Here's what we
do.  Cap.  Put our forces on a higher state of alert."

"Def Con 4, sir?"

"Whatever.  And get an extra carrier or something into
the Indian Ocean.  Show that we mean business."  Kemp
turned to Haig.  "We need to make a speech at the UN.
Not you Al.  Someone with a brain.  Jeanne."

****

The Persian Gulf is a war zone.  The Soviets are
stopping every vessel, searching each for contraband
and seizing any they found.  Supertankers are subject
to the most meticulous searches.

Well, not *every* vessel.  Iraqi-flagged vessels are
subject to only a perfunctory search, if at all.  For
all other tankers the Gulf has become a giant seaborne
traffic jam.  Only a trickle of non-Iraqi oil is
leaving the Gulf and most of that comes from destroyed
Iranian oil platforms.

But the Iraqi oil is keeping Japan and Western Europe
going.  Very little of the Iraqi oil reaches the United
States.

At this time the US still produces 20% of the world's
oil.  But she consumes 33%.  Rationing is introduced.
Filling is restricted by license plate, with odd and
even days.  There are public service messages urging
people to use public transport.  (Although these
adverts are not aired in cities like Denver and
Phoenix, for the obvious reasons.)

Normally with a fuel crisis like this, some of the
military oil reserves would be siphoned of and given to
a petrol-thirsty public.  But with the US at Def Con 4,
them oil reserves are staying right where they are,
buster.

****

The Soviet Union is now, officially, the Great Satan.
Ruhollah Khomeini public downgrades George H Bush to
'Lesser Spotted Satan.'  Behind the scenes, there are
also efforts to downsize Saddam Hussein's Satan rating;
the better to prosecute the war with the new Great
Satan.

In due course a peace deal is hammered out between Iran
and Iraq.  Iraq gains control of the entire Shatt al
Arab estuary.  A ten year peace and cooperation treaty
is signed.  Iranian forces move north to the Afghan and
Soviet borders; Iraqi forces move east.

****

After cursory fighting, Kuwait is absorbed as the 13th
province of Iraq.  The Emir's niece, living in New York
City, tells of her experiences as a nursing assistant
in Kuwait City.  In her parallel life, she says, Iraqi
soldiers looted in-use incubators from her hospital.
The American public are disinclined to believe her,
noting instead that the former Kuwaiti supertankers are
now flying Iraqi flags, moving freely into and out of
the Gulf and that the oil crisis is over!  The
celebrations are unrestrained to the dismay of the US
Government.

****

Mikhail Gorbachev makes a Sunday visit to the GenSec's
dacha.  He has been confirmed as the new Foreign
Minister following Andropov's burial and Reagan would
like to discuss the choice of his deputy.

[To be continued]

Cheers,

Nich

--
-----------------------------------------------------------
Nich Hills  Email: nhi...@ActOnline.com.au
-----------------------------------------------------------


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Nich Hills  
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 More options May 6 2000, 5:00 pm
Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if
From: Nich Hills <nhi...@ActOnline.com.au>
Date: 2000/05/06
Subject: Re: WI: General Secretary Reagan? Part 4

Douglas Muir wrote:
> Nich Hills wrote:

> I love it.

Thank you.

> Particularly:

> >  Reagan vas  chusd zis guy, you know?"

BTW it's _fetid_ dingo's kidneys.  HTH.

ObRadioSeries: The BBC's The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy

Cheers,

Nich

--
-----------------------------------------------------------
Nich Hills  Email: nhi...@ActOnline.com.au
-----------------------------------------------------------


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Greg Rea  
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 More options May 6 2000, 5:00 pm
Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if
From: Greg Rea <f...@hal-pc.org>
Date: 2000/05/06
Subject: Re: WI: General Secretary Reagan? Part 4
Delightful. Especially your SecState Emeritus. I would quibble
with your take on Haig however. He's a blowhard, sure, but he's
a polysyllabic blowhard. DoS vets still speak fondly of his
penchant to use too many syllables in place of simple sentences,
a process known as a Haigism. He was a take charge kinda guy,
but that One Incident notwithstanding, not a take over kinda guy.

Believe or not, he official had the phrase "paratrooper deployment"
changed to "nocturnal vertical insertion of personnel". Last time
_I_ did a "nocturnal vertical insertion"... oh never mind.

Did you remove part 3? I can't find it. If you did, can you repost?


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Discussion subject changed to "WI: General Secretary Reagan? Part 3 (Was WI: General Secretary Reagan? Part 4)" by Nich Hills
Nich Hills  
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 More options May 6 2000, 5:00 pm
Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if
From: Nich Hills <nhi...@ActOnline.com.au>
Date: 2000/05/06
Subject: [Repost] WI: General Secretary Reagan? Part 3 (Was WI: General Secretary Reagan? Part 4)

Greg Rea wrote:
> Delightful. Especially your SecState Emeritus. I would quibble
> with your take on Haig however. He's a blowhard, sure, but he's
> a polysyllabic blowhard.

Sure.  He was explaining a DoS White Paper on El Salvador that was
apparently more of a work of fiction and was asked if he'd be
withdrawing other DoS White Papers on the region.  He allegedly said:
"Negative.  There will be no interdiction of communiques which imapct on
our strategy in the Latin American sector.  We're not going to abort the
whole shooting match over one rotten apple.  Until we've
damaged-assessed our position, though, we'll be red-lighting current
U.S. containment of local leftist elements in Costa Rica, Guatamala and
Colombia."

A reporter then asked: "What about France?"

"That's already been cancelled.  We feel the situation in Paris has
stabalised."

Of course, the source of that report was Garry Trudeau, so I've been
disinclined to believe it.  But with your confirmation, I'll introduce a
more prolix Haig with collateral impact on communication,
understanding-wise.

You do realise, of course, that if Something Awful happens to Bush, my
guess is that Kemp will probably replace him.  :-(

> DoS vets still speak fondly of his
> penchant to use too many syllables in place of simple sentences,
> a process known as a Haigism. He was a take charge kinda guy,
> but that One Incident notwithstanding, not a take over kinda guy.

> Believe or not, he official had the phrase "paratrooper deployment"
> changed to "nocturnal vertical insertion of personnel". Last time
> _I_ did a "nocturnal vertical insertion"... oh never mind.

_Pre-dawn_ vertical insertion IIRC.

Funny you should mention this ...

> Did you remove part 3? I can't find it. If you did, can you repost?

Nope.  Here it is reposted for your reading pleasure:

WI: General Secretary Reagan? Part 3

G'day,

[Disclaimer: The following is a work of fiction, set in an
alternative universe.  Any resemblance to any persons,
living or dead, is purely coincidental.  Objects in the
mirror are closer than they appear.  Your mileage may vary.
Have a nice day.]

The Soviet Union of 1980 was moribund with a leadership able
only to focus on one thing at a time.  Waging war in
Afghanistan *and* engineering an anti-Solidarity military
coup in Poland at the same time took as much intense
concentration on the part of the politburo as Gerald Ford is
forced the expend masticating the Wrigley's Juicy Fruit on
his daily constitutional.

The Soviet Union of 1982 is a different kettle of
bouillabaisse.  The Afghan tarpit does not prevent the USSR
meddling in Indo-china, Kashmir, the Persian Gulf, Africa
and Europe.  Only Australasia is considered unworthy of the
Kremlin's attention.  (And you can see their point-of-view.)

What is the reason for this bustle of activity?  Is it the
foreign-born Reagan and his 'Californian' advisers providing
leaven to the stodge of a Politburo dominated by the
Russian-born?  Or is it just that the new General Secretary
has the attention span of a six-week-old puppy?  You the
reader must judge.

One example of this meddling is Grenada, in the USA's own
back-yard.  A coup by extremist elements is thwarted by
airdropped Speznatz special forces with able assistance from
Cuban combat engineers who were fortuitously on hand.  The
more moderate dictator Maurice Bishop is restored to power.

Margaret Thatcher claims to be concerned at this action.
Her Majesty, Queen Elizabeth the Second and President George
Bush are totally outraged.

That most under-utilised arm of the Soviet bureaucracy, the
Ministry of Justice, is called upon to give a rationale for
what is, seemingly undeniably, the invasion of a sovereign
state.  The Ministry calls upon the services of some
Canadian fifth columnists.  They explain that Queen
Elizabeth the Second is not, in fact, the Head of State of
Grenada.  It is her appointed viceroy, Governor-General Sir
Paul Scoon.  In the absence of the original ruling junta, it
is Sir Paul who is constitutionally able to make decisions
for defence and good order; such as calling for Soviet
assistance.  The pre-dawn vertical insertion of the Speznatz
is no more an invasion than when the Soviet Army provided
fraternal assistance to Afghanistan at the request of
Hafizullah Amin who so unfortunately passed away the
following day.

Bush is not placated.  He speaks of a violation of the
Monroe Doctrine, which places severe restrictions on the
identity of nations that can use military force in American
states.  [Editor's note: Read "American states" not
"'Merican states".  Colombia is an American state, Georgia
is not.]

An emergency meeting of the Central Committee is called.  A
pallid-looking Andropov, obviously unwell, calls for
restrain and speaks of 'spheres of influence'.

Gorbachev, the deputy foreign minister, distances himself
from his boss.  "It's all very well for the Imperialists to
speak of the sanctity of their so-called Monroe Doctrine.
Do they respect our Brezhnev Doctrine, our spheres of
influence?  No.  The Muslim-loving USA supplies weapons to
the Mujahadeen to use against our soldiers and the trade-
union-loving Yankees fund Solidarity in our own backyard."

A candidate member of the Politburo pipes up: "We must do
whatever we have to; to spend what we must spend; to kill
whomever we must kill.  We must do anything to win what is,
in actuality, a struggle for humanity against the forces of
greed and death!"

Reagan strides beside the young Mongolian emigre and pats
him on the shoulder as the four 'Californians' present break
into a barber-shop quartet rendition of L'Internationale.
"Son, I'm not sure I'd go that far but gee!  That speech.
Castro himself couldn't've said finer..."

bgadam sits down blushing as the GenSec thinks to himself
"... or shorter."

****

Anatolei Dobrinyen leaves Foggy Bottom.  All in all it went
pretty well.  General Haig threw a towering tantrum, as
expected but the Soviet Ambassador kept repeating his
message from the Kremlin.

Not the *precise* message from the Kremlin, which was: "Tell
Imperialists: 'Tough luck!'"  Dobrinyen was, after all, a
professional diplomat.  The message was expanded and
softened but its meaning was left unchanged.

The General OTOH had used the most undiplomatic language:
"gone too far" "damned Russkies" "consider our options" and
"massive retaliation".

It was the phrase "only two days' drive from Miami" that
threw the ambassador.  He couldn't quite make sense of it;
putting it down to deficiencies in the teaching of geography
in US schools.

What we need to do now, Dobrinyen thought, is set up a phone
call from the General Secretary to the US President.  Not
even Bush should be able to withstand the famous Reagan
charm.  Within a week the President, famed for the extent
and politeness of his written correspondence, would probably
be sending Reagan a thank-you note.

****

Of course, Grenada is not that strategically important.  The
GenSec has other fish to fry.

Two weeks later, Gorbachev visits Andropov in hospital.
"How did it go?" the older man asks, breathlessly.

"He's still obsessed with Israel, Yuri.  He's calling it
'the homeland of our Revolution'."

"Well, Karl Marx' parents were Jewish" wheezes the Foreign
Minister.  "And the great liberators of myth, Moses and
Christ, have links with Israel."

Gorbachev winces at the ease with which the names of
religious figures roll off the older man's tongue.  "Anyway,
he wants to mend fences.  Doesn't care at all for what it
does to our relations in the Arab world."

Andropov may be critically ill but he still has all his
mental faculties.  "Do the Arabs matter?"

The Deputy Foreign Minister is stunned "Why would they not
matter?"

"My dear Mikhail, since Camp David, Egypt is firmly aligned
with the USA.  Saudi Arabia has always been pro-US.  Iraq is
irrelevant while they persist in their war with Iraq.  That
leaves only Syria as our ally in the region."

"What of the PLO?"

"The PLO!?"  Andropov would spit if the tube down his throat
did not prevent him.  "We've been funding them for twenty
years now and they are no closer to forging a United Front
of working class Arabs, Palestinians and Jews than they were
when they started!"

Gorbachev isn't sure this was the founding purpose of the
Palestinian Liberation Organisation but a nurse motions to
him not to upset her patient.

The Foreign Minister continues: "We know the Israelis have
been pushing Washington for months now for a green light to
secure their borders with Lebanon.  Bush is to much of a
sissy-man to grant this.  If *we* were to promise Tel Aviv
there would be no Soviet backing of Syria ...".  The words
are cut off by a coughing episode.  Gorbachev is bustled out
and nurses draw curtains around Andropov's bed.  Gorbachev
leaves as doctors rush in.

****

Operation Peace in Galilee started so well, and went so
wrong.  Initially just a a border raid, Hezbollah put up
such a resistance, backed by some units of the fractured
Lebanese Army, that the IDF was forced to drive all the way
to Beirut, linking up with the detachment of Soviet Marines
that had initially secured the city.

Alas, the Marines were conscripts, raw, and untrained in
securing urban areas.  There was some rock-throwing at the
Shatila and Sabra refugee camps and the Soviets lost the
plot.  Hundreds of refugees were gunned down, many women and
children.

This was on top of an earlier accidental Israeli bombardment
of a refugee camp near Sidon.  There is world-wide
condemnation, which is not assuage by the imprisonment in
the Soviet Union of the implicated enlisted men and the
scapegoat execution of a few junior officers.

In Washington, the Young Republicans organise a protest
march from the Soviet to the Israeli Embassies.  Organisers
put numbers at around 100,000 although the police estimate
is closer to 15,000.  (Typical!)

It is a peaceful march, with the crowd chanting "Rea-gan!
Beg-in!  Twins in
...

read more »


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