I just saw this review and I think it may be a book I want to read.
I have been thinking on similar lines that Americans have for some time been exhibiting a high degree of anti-scientism. To me it appears that there are two reasons for this.
First, pre-college education in the country has split in two directions with the top students getting an excellent grounding in science, while the rest of the students are "managed" and passed along and out of the system without any great learning. As a consequence, they lack the critical thinking skills necessary to evaluate risks - or even to recognize that there is a risk that is necessary to evaluate. Lacking the critical thinking skills, they are easy prey to superstition and suggestion. To them, then, stories about past incidents of scientific error loom over all current claims for scientific knowledge and create mistrust.
Second, science has in no small part become the property of big business. The pharmaceutical industry is a good example. No longer do universities do most of the research in this area of medicine. And, even if they do some, it is usually sponsored by (paid for by) a large pharmaceutical company. And big business has lost the trust of the public. A generation of movies where big corporations are the center of evil has seen to that, even if it were not for a parade of deceptions and failures to control quality that have numbed the consuming public.
As a result of both of these factors, a large segment of Americans are deeply afraid and lack the intellectual tools to dispel the fear.
-- Francis A. Miniter
Oscuramente libros, laminas, llaves siguen mi suerte.
> I just saw this review and I think it may be a book I want to read.
> I have been thinking on similar lines that Americans have for some time > been exhibiting a high degree of anti-scientism. To me it appears that > there are two reasons for this.
> First, pre-college education in the country has split in two directions > with the top students getting an excellent grounding in science, while > the rest of the students are "managed" and passed along and out of the > system without any great learning. As a consequence, they lack the > critical thinking skills necessary to evaluate risks - or even to > recognize that there is a risk that is necessary to evaluate. Lacking > the critical thinking skills, they are easy prey to superstition and > suggestion. To them, then, stories about past incidents of scientific > error loom over all current claims for scientific knowledge and create > mistrust.
> Second, science has in no small part become the property of big > business. The pharmaceutical industry is a good example. No longer do > universities do most of the research in this area of medicine. And, > even if they do some, it is usually sponsored by (paid for by) a large > pharmaceutical company. And big business has lost the trust of the > public. A generation of movies where big corporations are the center of > evil has seen to that, even if it were not for a parade of deceptions > and failures to control quality that have numbed the consuming public.
> As a result of both of these factors, a large segment of Americans are > deeply afraid and lack the intellectual tools to dispel the fear.
Oh, I don't know. This idea of pure science went out with the Victorian Gentleman Scientist. If it existed at all. Someone always has to pay the bills. Whether its Kew, pharmaceutical houses, universities, pater's trust fund or what have you, people still gotta eat. Including scientists.
As to the number of people who do not believe science, well, that's always been true. No news there. So what's the author's point? That he just woke up? The Matrix has slipped from his eyes? Sheesh. Rather late to the party.
Speaking of which a better book to read may be 'The Windup Girl' by Paolo Bacialupe. Science Fiction but worth it.
>I just saw this review and I think it may be a book I want >to read.
>I have been thinking on similar lines that Americans have >for some time been exhibiting a high degree of >anti-scientism. To me it appears that there are two reasons >for this.
>First, pre-college education in the country has split in two >directions with the top students getting an excellent >grounding in science, while the rest of the students are >"managed" and passed along and out of the system without any >great learning. As a consequence, they lack the critical >thinking skills necessary to evaluate risks - or even to >recognize that there is a risk that is necessary to >evaluate. Lacking the critical thinking skills, they are >easy prey to superstition and suggestion. To them, then, >stories about past incidents of scientific error loom over >all current claims for scientific knowledge and create mistrust.
>Second, science has in no small part become the property of >big business. The pharmaceutical industry is a good >example. No longer do universities do most of the research >in this area of medicine. And, even if they do some, it is >usually sponsored by (paid for by) a large pharmaceutical >company. And big business has lost the trust of the public. > A generation of movies where big corporations are the >center of evil has seen to that, even if it were not for a >parade of deceptions and failures to control quality that >have numbed the consuming public.
>As a result of both of these factors, a large segment of >Americans are deeply afraid and lack the intellectual tools >to dispel the fear.
You missed one factor, though it is more blatant recently - and that is science has become more politicised, and it corresponds with the rise of political religious fundamentalism. (not that it hasn't been down through the ages, but it seems more so in this country recently) --
Wes Struebing I pledge allegiance to the Constitution of the United States of America, and to the republic which it established, one nation from many peoples, promising liberty and justice for all. Homepage: www.carpedementem.org linkedin profile: http://www.linkedin.com/in/wesstruebing
Mike Burke wrote: >> You missed one factor, though it is more blatant recently - and that >> is science has become more politicised, and it corresponds with the >> rise of political religious fundamentalism. (not that it hasn't been >> down through the ages, but it seems more so in this country recently) >> -- > And here too - in the process jeopardising whatever tenuous claims its > practitioners might have had to respect.
Once Upon a Midnight Dreary, While Francis A. Miniter Pondered, Weak and Weary, Over Many a Quaint and Curious Forgotten Post, s/he wrote: --------------------------------------------------------------
>I just saw this review and I think it may be a book I want >to read.
>I have been thinking on similar lines that Americans have >for some time been exhibiting a high degree of >anti-scientism. To me it appears that there are two reasons >for this.
A small, sort of topical anecdote.
I was at an event the other night in Harrisburg (Concert for Darwin) in which biologist Ken Miller (who was an expert witness at the Dover trial in 2005) spoke to the audience with a little powerpoint presentation. He flashed up this graph on the screen:
As you can see from the graph, only Turkey, of the 34 countries, is dumber than the US, by population. Or to be less pejorative, slightly less anti-science than Turkey.
Miller told the story that when he was looking at this graph on his computer, one of his grad students walked by, who happened to be from Turkey. He called him in to show him the graph and an accompanying article. After reading the article and the graph, he hung his head and started moaning: "I can't believe it! This is terrible!" to which Miller asked "What?".
He replied " I'm so ashamed for my country. We can't even beat the United States!"
Jr@Ease wrote: > Once Upon a Midnight Dreary, While Francis A. Miniter Pondered, Weak > and Weary, Over Many a Quaint and Curious Forgotten Post, s/he wrote: > -------------------------------------------------------------- >> http://us.penguingroup.com/nf/Book/BookDisplay/0,,9781594202308,00.ht...
>> I just saw this review and I think it may be a book I want >> to read.
>> I have been thinking on similar lines that Americans have >> for some time been exhibiting a high degree of >> anti-scientism. To me it appears that there are two reasons >> for this.
> A small, sort of topical anecdote.
> I was at an event the other night in Harrisburg (Concert for Darwin) > in which biologist Ken Miller (who was an expert witness at the Dover > trial in 2005) spoke to the audience with a little powerpoint > presentation. He flashed up this graph on the screen:
> As you can see from the graph, only Turkey, of the 34 countries, is > dumber than the US, by population. Or to be less pejorative, slightly > less anti-science than Turkey.
> Miller told the story that when he was looking at this graph on his > computer, one of his grad students walked by, who happened to be from > Turkey. He called him in to show him the graph and an accompanying > article. After reading the article and the graph, he hung his head and > started moaning: "I can't believe it! This is terrible!" to which > Miller asked "What?".
> He replied " I'm so ashamed for my country. We can't even beat the > United States!"
> John P
That chart is truly humiliating. We need a solution to this situation. Education must be part of it, but is it enough?
-- Francis A. Miniter
Oscuramente libros, laminas, llaves siguen mi suerte.
Once Upon a Midnight Dreary, While Francis A. Miniter Pondered, Weak and Weary, Over Many a Quaint and Curious Forgotten Post, s/he wrote: --------------------------------------------------------------
>> I was at an event the other night in Harrisburg (Concert for Darwin) >> in which biologist Ken Miller (who was an expert witness at the Dover >> trial in 2005) spoke to the audience with a little powerpoint >> presentation. He flashed up this graph on the screen:
>> As you can see from the graph, only Turkey, of the 34 countries, is >> dumber than the US, by population. Or to be less pejorative, slightly >> less anti-science than Turkey.
>> Miller told the story that when he was looking at this graph on his >> computer, one of his grad students walked by, who happened to be from >> Turkey. He called him in to show him the graph and an accompanying >> article. After reading the article and the graph, he hung his head and >> started moaning: "I can't believe it! This is terrible!" to which >> Miller asked "What?".
>> He replied " I'm so ashamed for my country. We can't even beat the >> United States!"
>> John P
>That chart is truly humiliating. We need a solution to this >situation. Education must be part of it, but is it enough?
Outlaw the Discovery Institute? They actually have a budget to spread disinformation about science to the world, including Turkey.
Mike Burke wrote: > On Tue, 10 Nov 2009 09:19:44 +1100, Mike Burke <mbu...@pcug.org.au> > wrote:
>> On Mon, 09 Nov 2009 08:06:20 -0600, barbara fister >> <bfis...@hickorytech.net> wrote:
>>> Mike Burke wrote:
>>>>> You missed one factor, though it is more blatant recently - and that >>>>> is science has become more politicised, and it corresponds with the >>>>> rise of political religious fundamentalism. (not that it hasn't been >>>>> down through the ages, but it seems more so in this country recently) >>>>> -- >>>> And here too - in the process jeopardising whatever tenuous claims its >>>> practitioners might have had to respect. >>> For example? Just curious.
>> For example? How's life been on the dark side of the moon, Barbara?
> Further to the above. Says it better than I can.
I have been trying hard to understand what you are saying in these last few posts. I am having trouble. Are you saying that there is a general wrong impression that science is just another belief system, or are you saying that science is just another belief system, or are you saying something else altogether?
-- Francis A. Miniter
Oscuramente libros, laminas, llaves siguen mi suerte.
Francis A. Miniter wrote: > Jr@Ease wrote: >> Once Upon a Midnight Dreary, While Francis A. Miniter Pondered, Weak >> and Weary, Over Many a Quaint and Curious Forgotten Post, s/he wrote: >> -------------------------------------------------------------- >>> http://us.penguingroup.com/nf/Book/BookDisplay/0,,9781594202308,00.ht...
>>> I just saw this review and I think it may be a book I want to read.
>>> I have been thinking on similar lines that Americans have for some >>> time been exhibiting a high degree of anti-scientism. To me it >>> appears that there are two reasons for this.
>> A small, sort of topical anecdote.
>> I was at an event the other night in Harrisburg (Concert for Darwin) >> in which biologist Ken Miller (who was an expert witness at the Dover >> trial in 2005) spoke to the audience with a little powerpoint >> presentation. He flashed up this graph on the screen:
>> As you can see from the graph, only Turkey, of the 34 countries, is >> dumber than the US, by population. Or to be less pejorative, slightly >> less anti-science than Turkey. >> Miller told the story that when he was looking at this graph on his >> computer, one of his grad students walked by, who happened to be from >> Turkey. He called him in to show him the graph and an accompanying >> article. After reading the article and the graph, he hung his head and >> started moaning: "I can't believe it! This is terrible!" to which >> Miller asked "What?". >> He replied " I'm so ashamed for my country. We can't even beat the >> United States!"
>> John P
> That chart is truly humiliating. We need a solution to this situation. > Education must be part of it, but is it enough?
No its not enough. You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink.
Mike Burke wrote: > On Mon, 09 Nov 2009 21:08:41 -0500, "Francis A. Miniter" > <famini...@comcast.net> wrote:
>> Mike Burke wrote: >>> On Tue, 10 Nov 2009 09:19:44 +1100, Mike Burke <mbu...@pcug.org.au> >>> wrote:
>>>> On Mon, 09 Nov 2009 08:06:20 -0600, barbara fister >>>> <bfis...@hickorytech.net> wrote:
>>>>> Mike Burke wrote:
>>>>>>> You missed one factor, though it is more blatant recently - and that >>>>>>> is science has become more politicised, and it corresponds with the >>>>>>> rise of political religious fundamentalism. (not that it hasn't been >>>>>>> down through the ages, but it seems more so in this country recently) >>>>>>> -- >>>>>> And here too - in the process jeopardising whatever tenuous claims its >>>>>> practitioners might have had to respect. >>>>> For example? Just curious.
>>>> For example? How's life been on the dark side of the moon, Barbara?
>>> Further to the above. Says it better than I can.
>> I have been trying hard to understand what you are saying in >> these last few posts. I am having trouble. Are you saying >> that there is a general wrong impression that science is >> just another belief system, or are you saying that science >> is just another belief system, or are you saying something >> else altogether?
> Neither of the above. I was simply supporting Wes's view (above) " > that is science has become more politicised, and it corresponds with > the rise of political religious fundamentalism".
> There are stacks of examples where scientists have sold their souls > (birthright, if you will) for a mess of pottage. For example, the > second-hand tobacco hysteria is one famous recent example. The > various global cooling/warming panics are another.
As to global climate change, thousands of climate scientists have endorsed the view that we have already entered a period of global warming and that it has been caused in part, at least, by much increased human consumption of energy. Now, science operates best when it looks backward and accounts for facts that have already happened. Modeling for future events requires the specification of certain assumptions. The question is always whether the modeling has picked up all the relevant factors and excluded all irrelevant factors.
> Whether we agree or not with any particular view, it's undeniable that > scientist have become more political than before and that scientific > funding is directed to the "politically correct" in preference to the > skeptics. Stay in line or perish is the message.
I have not seen this. What I have seen that is do not like at all are the publication of "research" conducted by scientists in the pay of big business. All too often the results so obtained favor the political position of the business which paid for the research. This was highly noticeable during the Bush II presidency, when conservative based think tanks published reports that there was no global warming at all (please don't look at the places where glaciers used to exist in Alaska and B.C., or the former ice shelf in Antarctica and especially do not look at the navigable Arctic Ocean).
> This is why I say that scientists (and inevitably science itself) must > be accountable politically for their errors as they are are rewarded > for their successess. When they trade in the GIGO marketplace, as > they have been doing, they lose any credibility they might once have > had.
The problem is that I see no way of getting big business out of research. And to be fair, big business does do a lot of good research. Drug testing in America these days is highly structured to produce honest results. Drug companies have many a time conducted safety clinical trials followed by efficacy trials only to learn after a couple years of these trials that the drug does not work. Now at least, they have to report that result to the FDA as well.
> One interesting conclusion drawn by pollsters from surveys in this > country was that those who were global warming skeptics were > predominantly older people, aged 50+ if I remember correctly. The > conclusion was that as we were older, we were likely to be less well > educated, even stupider, than the younger generations who > overwhelmingly believed in the current dominant paradigm.
> It seemed never occurred to these mental that we auld phartz have seen > all this before, many times, and have a healthy skepticism borne of > bitter experience.
Uh, Mique, how old are you that you have seen a cycle of global warming before? 24,000 years or so?
-- Francis A. Miniter
Oscuramente libros, laminas, llaves siguen mi suerte.
On 2009-11-09 20:43:04 -0800, Mike Burke <mbu...@pcug.org.au> said:
> That is why I have always insisted that we need to get a tighter hold > on our "experts" in case they stampede our politicians into even > sillier and even more dangerous stunts like the coming Copenhagen > circle jerk promises to be.
I personally am looking forward to some scientist explaining how our dependence on fossil fuels has been influencing the current global warming trend....on Mars.
Yes, that's right. Our neighbor one planet out is currently in a warming cycle. Perhaps it's the sun we share. Ya think?
Lynn Allen wrote: > On 2009-11-09 20:43:04 -0800, Mike Burke <mbu...@pcug.org.au> said:
>> That is why I have always insisted that we need to get a tighter hold >> on our "experts" in case they stampede our politicians into even >> sillier and even more dangerous stunts like the coming Copenhagen >> circle jerk promises to be.
> I personally am looking forward to some scientist explaining how our > dependence on fossil fuels has been influencing the current global > warming trend....on Mars.
> Yes, that's right. Our neighbor one planet out is currently in a warming > cycle. Perhaps it's the sun we share. Ya think?
----------------------- The Sun is presently behaving unexpectedly in a number of ways.[117][118]
* It is in the midst of an unusual sunspot minimum, lasting far longer and with a higher percentage of spotless days than normal; since May 2008, predictions of an imminent rise in activity have been regularly made and as regularly confuted. * It is measurably dimming; its output has dropped 0.02% at visible wavelengths and 6% at EUV wavelengths in comparison with the levels at the last solar minimum.[119] * Over the last two decades, the solar wind's speed has dropped 3%, its temperature 13%, and its density 20%. * Its magnetic field is at less than half strength compared to the minimum of 22 years ago. The entire heliosphere, which fills the Solar System, has shrunk as a result, resulting in an increase in the level of cosmic radiation striking the Earth and its atmosphere. ------------------------
-- Francis A. Miniter
Oscuramente libros, laminas, llaves siguen mi suerte.
Mike Burke wrote: > On Mon, 09 Nov 2009 22:01:27 -0500, "Francis A. Miniter" > <famini...@comcast.net> wrote:
>> Mike Burke wrote: >>> On Mon, 09 Nov 2009 21:08:41 -0500, "Francis A. Miniter" >>> <famini...@comcast.net> wrote:
>>>> Mike Burke wrote: >>>>> On Tue, 10 Nov 2009 09:19:44 +1100, Mike Burke <mbu...@pcug.org.au> >>>>> wrote:
>>>>>> On Mon, 09 Nov 2009 08:06:20 -0600, barbara fister >>>>>> <bfis...@hickorytech.net> wrote:
>>>>>>> Mike Burke wrote:
>>>>>>>>> You missed one factor, though it is more blatant recently - and that >>>>>>>>> is science has become more politicised, and it corresponds with the >>>>>>>>> rise of political religious fundamentalism. (not that it hasn't been >>>>>>>>> down through the ages, but it seems more so in this country recently) >>>>>>>>> -- >>>>>>>> And here too - in the process jeopardising whatever tenuous claims its >>>>>>>> practitioners might have had to respect. >>>>>>> For example? Just curious.
>>>>>> For example? How's life been on the dark side of the moon, Barbara?
>>>>> Further to the above. Says it better than I can.
>>>> I have been trying hard to understand what you are saying in >>>> these last few posts. I am having trouble. Are you saying >>>> that there is a general wrong impression that science is >>>> just another belief system, or are you saying that science >>>> is just another belief system, or are you saying something >>>> else altogether? >>> Neither of the above. I was simply supporting Wes's view (above) " >>> that is science has become more politicised, and it corresponds with >>> the rise of political religious fundamentalism".
>>> There are stacks of examples where scientists have sold their souls >>> (birthright, if you will) for a mess of pottage. For example, the >>> second-hand tobacco hysteria is one famous recent example. The >>> various global cooling/warming panics are another. >> I did not think there was any dispute on the subject of >> second-hand smoke: >> http://www.cancer.gov/cancertopics/factsheet/Tobacco/ETS
> No, there's lots of dispute on the subject. Not so much on the > adverse effects of smoking on smokers, although religious zealotry has > trumped reason even there. But there are heaps of contrary opinions > on second hand smoke the alleged dangers of which were trumpetted as > justification for official persecution and prosecution of smokers > throughout the English-speaking world.
> I've detailed here before my own personal experience with official > medical professional advice to RAAF policy makers that the dangers of > second hand smoke were insignificant except _possibly_ in the case of > pregnant women in the first trimester when the risk was in the order > of something slightly less than 2 percent, ie well within the > statistical ground clutter and, thus also statistically insignificant. > Jane has researched the subject in detail and has concluded that there > are _no_ credible studies in support of the proposition. If I > remember her argument, she found that all such studies are exercises > in assuming the conclusion - situating the appreciation as we used to > call it in the military.
> A very forthright article on the process is here:
> http://www.spiked-online.com/index.php/site/article/7626/ >> As to global climate change, thousands of climate scientists >> have endorsed the view that we have already entered a period >> of global warming and that it has been caused in part, at >> least, by much increased human consumption of energy. Now, >> science operates best when it looks backward and accounts >> for facts that have already happened. Modeling for future >> events requires the specification of certain assumptions. >> The question is always whether the modeling has picked up >> all the relevant factors and excluded all irrelevant >> factors.
> No. Thousands of climate scientists have done no such thing, Francis. > It's been shown conclusively by the leading skeptics that these > "thousands" are really only a relatively tiny clique whose work has > been criticised by equally prominent "experts" - mostly retired, and > therefore "fireproof" scientists - as highly suspect. The IPCC > "Report" was the work of fewer than 50 people, most of whom were not > scientists at all, who actively suppressed data and conclusions > contrary to their political view.
> The classic is the destruction of the credibility of the Mann Hockey > Stick - on which the whole anthropogenic global warming scare is > largely based - by Steve McIntyre and Ross McKittrick. If you really > want to see the depths to which the so-called Hockey Team is prepared > to stoop, go to www.climateaudit.org and do some extensive reading. > Not only did McIntyre and McKittrick destroy the Hockey stick by > demonstrating that Mann et ors had misused and abused statistical > methodology to produce the stick effect - and showed that their > methodology and algorythms would produce a hockey stick virtually out > of any data fed into it, even random numbers, but also they have since > shown that the core data used was unsuitable for the purpose.
>>> Whether we agree or not with any particular view, it's undeniable that >>> scientist have become more political than before and that scientific >>> funding is directed to the "politically correct" in preference to the >>> skeptics. Stay in line or perish is the message. >> I have not seen this. What I have seen that is do not like >> at all are the publication of "research" conducted by >> scientists in the pay of big business. All too often the >> results so obtained favor the political position of the >> business which paid for the research. This was highly >> noticeable during the Bush II presidency, when conservative >> based think tanks published reports that there was no global >> warming at all (please don't look at the places where >> glaciers used to exist in Alaska and B.C., or the former ice >> shelf in Antarctica and especially do not look at the >> navigable Arctic Ocean).
> Really? And yet there is still no evidence that any of this is > anthropogenic and it is simply nonsense to claim that there is.
And if there is evidence, you will deny it anyways. Have you read the IPCC Fourth Assessment Reports (2007)? It came in three parts.
> The
> glaciers have been melting for centuries.
Rate of melt has drastically changed. And as my brother-in-law David Holland (who hold the title (among others) of Director of CAOS) has been finding, in Greenland, the glaciers are now melting from below as well as from above. See http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.com/2008/10/david-holland-et-...
> The Arctic Ocean has been > navigable at various times in the recent past.
> Crops used to be grown > in the Faeroes and on Greenland. Al Gore aside, nobody is seriously > claiming that the "former" ice shelf in Antarctica is even > significant.
> than there has been in the recent past. On the rest of Antarctica the > ice mass has increased significantly. >>> This is why I say that scientists (and inevitably science itself) must >>> be accountable politically for their errors as they are are rewarded >>> for their successess. When they trade in the GIGO marketplace, as >>> they have been doing, they lose any credibility they might once have >>> had. >> The problem is that I see no way of getting big business out >> of research. And to be fair, big business does do a lot of >> good research. Drug testing in America these days is highly >> structured to produce honest results. Drug companies have >> many a time conducted safety clinical trials followed by >> efficacy trials only to learn after a couple years of these >> trials that the drug does not work. Now at least, they have >> to report that result to the FDA as well.
> It's nice of you to concede that big business does a lot of good > research. In fact it's probably true that the overwhelming majority > of good research is done by or on behalf of big business and that the > rogues represent a small minority. The only instances of good > research initiated and conducted by government authorities (outside > the Warsaw Pact) were those instigated organisations like the old > Australian CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industial Organisation), > which did good stuff for the wool and textile industries, and with > other agricultural research. Another was the Australian Serum > Laboratories, also a government instrumentality, which did much > pioneering work in anti-venoms. A third is a military scientific > research organisation here which has often been at the forefront of > weapons research but consistently constrained by successive Oz > governments from marketing their technological breakthroughs. >>> One interesting conclusion drawn by pollsters from surveys in this >>> country was that those who were global warming skeptics were >>> predominantly older people, aged 50+ if I remember correctly. The >>> conclusion was that as we were older, we were likely to be less well >>> educated, even stupider, than the younger generations who >>> overwhelmingly believed in the current dominant paradigm.
>>> It seemed never occurred to these mental that we auld phartz have seen >>> all this before, many times, and have a healthy skepticism borne of >>> bitter experience.
>> Uh, Mique, how old are you that you have seen a
<famini...@comcast.net> wrote: >Lynn Allen wrote: >> On 2009-11-09 20:43:04 -0800, Mike Burke <mbu...@pcug.org.au> said:
>>> That is why I have always insisted that we need to get a tighter hold >>> on our "experts" in case they stampede our politicians into even >>> sillier and even more dangerous stunts like the coming Copenhagen >>> circle jerk promises to be.
>> I personally am looking forward to some scientist explaining how our >> dependence on fossil fuels has been influencing the current global >> warming trend....on Mars.
>> Yes, that's right. Our neighbor one planet out is currently in a warming >> cycle. Perhaps it's the sun we share. Ya think?
>----------------------- >The Sun is presently behaving unexpectedly in a number of >ways.[117][118]
> * It is in the midst of an unusual sunspot minimum, >lasting far longer and with a higher percentage of spotless >days than normal; since May 2008, predictions of an imminent >rise in activity have been regularly made and as regularly >confuted. > * It is measurably dimming; its output has dropped >0.02% at visible wavelengths and 6% at EUV wavelengths in >comparison with the levels at the last solar minimum.[119] > * Over the last two decades, the solar wind's speed has >dropped 3%, its temperature 13%, and its density 20%. > * Its magnetic field is at less than half strength >compared to the minimum of 22 years ago. The entire >heliosphere, which fills the Solar System, has shrunk as a >result, resulting in an increase in the level of cosmic >radiation striking the Earth and its atmosphere. >------------------------
Not sure that wiki in this case is accurate, Francis. Check out some of @BadAstronomer's columns in "Discovery" onlne. One of his recent columns addresses the sunspot issue, at least, and the reputed warming up of the sun, as well.
Problem with the crap (on all sides of this debate) that one reads on line and in the press is that almost every article has some blatant political agenda. The anthropomorphic global warmers (of which I currently buy into, since their evidence seems more compelling to me) seem to end their articles with, "so there! You neocon knuckle-dragging philistines!"" And the deniers seem to end their articles with "Take that! Neener,neener! You wingnut liberal idiotic tree-huggers!"
Hard to have serious opinion when both sides engage in character assassination, or to find the forest due to the political trees. --
Wes Struebing I pledge allegiance to the Constitution of the United States of America, and to the republic which it established, one nation from many peoples, promising liberty and justice for all. Homepage: www.carpedementem.org linkedin profile: http://www.linkedin.com/in/wesstruebing
Wes Struebing wrote: > On Tue, 10 Nov 2009 12:30:33 -0500, "Francis A. Miniter" > <famini...@comcast.net> wrote:
>> Lynn Allen wrote: >>> On 2009-11-09 20:43:04 -0800, Mike Burke <mbu...@pcug.org.au> said:
>>>> That is why I have always insisted that we need to get a tighter hold >>>> on our "experts" in case they stampede our politicians into even >>>> sillier and even more dangerous stunts like the coming Copenhagen >>>> circle jerk promises to be. >>> I personally am looking forward to some scientist explaining how our >>> dependence on fossil fuels has been influencing the current global >>> warming trend....on Mars.
>>> Yes, that's right. Our neighbor one planet out is currently in a warming >>> cycle. Perhaps it's the sun we share. Ya think?
>> Not if the following from Wikipedia is accurate:
>> ----------------------- >> The Sun is presently behaving unexpectedly in a number of >> ways.[117][118]
>> * It is in the midst of an unusual sunspot minimum, >> lasting far longer and with a higher percentage of spotless >> days than normal; since May 2008, predictions of an imminent >> rise in activity have been regularly made and as regularly >> confuted. >> * It is measurably dimming; its output has dropped >> 0.02% at visible wavelengths and 6% at EUV wavelengths in >> comparison with the levels at the last solar minimum.[119] >> * Over the last two decades, the solar wind's speed has >> dropped 3%, its temperature 13%, and its density 20%. >> * Its magnetic field is at less than half strength >> compared to the minimum of 22 years ago. The entire >> heliosphere, which fills the Solar System, has shrunk as a >> result, resulting in an increase in the level of cosmic >> radiation striking the Earth and its atmosphere. >> ------------------------
> Not sure that wiki in this case is accurate, Francis. Check out some > of @BadAstronomer's columns in "Discovery" onlne. One of his recent > columns addresses the sunspot issue, at least, and the reputed warming > up of the sun, as well.
I found the Bad Astronomer, but not what he says about sunspots. On the other hand, he has an excellent article on the new Hubble image of the center of the Milky Way. The NASA Hubble site has good wallpaper of the image, which is now the background on my computer.
I did find this site which gives a good chart of sunspot activity: http://spaceweather.com/java/sunspot.html It does look like we are in quite a minimum, but one that started about 2001 or 2002.
While I have found measurements of the sun's temperature (ranging from 5780 to 5840 degrees Kelvin), I have not found anything about changes in the sun's temperature.
> Problem with the crap (on all sides of this debate) that one reads on > line and in the press is that almost every article has some blatant > political agenda. The anthropomorphic global warmers (of which I > currently buy into, since their evidence seems more compelling to me) > seem to end their articles with, "so there! You neocon > knuckle-dragging philistines!"" And the deniers seem to end their > articles with "Take that! Neener,neener! You wingnut liberal idiotic > tree-huggers!"
> Hard to have serious opinion when both sides engage in character > assassination, or to find the forest due to the political trees. > --
> Wes Struebing
-- Francis A. Miniter
Oscuramente libros, laminas, llaves siguen mi suerte.
Mike Burke wrote: > On Tue, 10 Nov 2009 19:05:28 -0500, "Francis A. Miniter" > <famini...@comcast.net> wrote:
>> Mike Burke wrote: >>> On Mon, 09 Nov 2009 22:01:27 -0500, "Francis A. Miniter" >>> <famini...@comcast.net> wrote:
>>>> Mike Burke wrote: >>>>> On Mon, 09 Nov 2009 21:08:41 -0500, "Francis A. Miniter" >>>>> <famini...@comcast.net> wrote:
>>>>>> Mike Burke wrote: >>>>>>> On Tue, 10 Nov 2009 09:19:44 +1100, Mike Burke <mbu...@pcug.org.au> >>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>>> On Mon, 09 Nov 2009 08:06:20 -0600, barbara fister >>>>>>>> <bfis...@hickorytech.net> wrote:
>>>>>>>>> Mike Burke wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>> You missed one factor, though it is more blatant recently - and that >>>>>>>>>>> is science has become more politicised, and it corresponds with the >>>>>>>>>>> rise of political religious fundamentalism. (not that it hasn't been >>>>>>>>>>> down through the ages, but it seems more so in this country recently) >>>>>>>>>>> -- >>>>>>>>>> And here too - in the process jeopardising whatever tenuous claims its >>>>>>>>>> practitioners might have had to respect. >>>>>>>>> For example? Just curious.
>>>>>>>> For example? How's life been on the dark side of the moon, Barbara?
>>>>>>> Further to the above. Says it better than I can.
>>>>>> I have been trying hard to understand what you are saying in >>>>>> these last few posts. I am having trouble. Are you saying >>>>>> that there is a general wrong impression that science is >>>>>> just another belief system, or are you saying that science >>>>>> is just another belief system, or are you saying something >>>>>> else altogether? >>>>> Neither of the above. I was simply supporting Wes's view (above) " >>>>> that is science has become more politicised, and it corresponds with >>>>> the rise of political religious fundamentalism".
>>>>> There are stacks of examples where scientists have sold their souls >>>>> (birthright, if you will) for a mess of pottage. For example, the >>>>> second-hand tobacco hysteria is one famous recent example. The >>>>> various global cooling/warming panics are another. >>>> I did not think there was any dispute on the subject of >>>> second-hand smoke: >>>> http://www.cancer.gov/cancertopics/factsheet/Tobacco/ETS >>> No, there's lots of dispute on the subject. Not so much on the >>> adverse effects of smoking on smokers, although religious zealotry has >>> trumped reason even there. But there are heaps of contrary opinions >>> on second hand smoke the alleged dangers of which were trumpetted as >>> justification for official persecution and prosecution of smokers >>> throughout the English-speaking world.
>>> I've detailed here before my own personal experience with official >>> medical professional advice to RAAF policy makers that the dangers of >>> second hand smoke were insignificant except _possibly_ in the case of >>> pregnant women in the first trimester when the risk was in the order >>> of something slightly less than 2 percent, ie well within the >>> statistical ground clutter and, thus also statistically insignificant. >>> Jane has researched the subject in detail and has concluded that there >>> are _no_ credible studies in support of the proposition. If I >>> remember her argument, she found that all such studies are exercises >>> in assuming the conclusion - situating the appreciation as we used to >>> call it in the military.
>>> A very forthright article on the process is here:
>>> http://www.spiked-online.com/index.php/site/article/7626/ >>>> As to global climate change, thousands of climate scientists >>>> have endorsed the view that we have already entered a period >>>> of global warming and that it has been caused in part, at >>>> least, by much increased human consumption of energy. Now, >>>> science operates best when it looks backward and accounts >>>> for facts that have already happened. Modeling for future >>>> events requires the specification of certain assumptions. >>>> The question is always whether the modeling has picked up >>>> all the relevant factors and excluded all irrelevant >>>> factors.
>>> No. Thousands of climate scientists have done no such thing, Francis. >>> It's been shown conclusively by the leading skeptics that these >>> "thousands" are really only a relatively tiny clique whose work has >>> been criticised by equally prominent "experts" - mostly retired, and >>> therefore "fireproof" scientists - as highly suspect. The IPCC >>> "Report" was the work of fewer than 50 people, most of whom were not >>> scientists at all, who actively suppressed data and conclusions >>> contrary to their political view.
>>> The classic is the destruction of the credibility of the Mann Hockey >>> Stick - on which the whole anthropogenic global warming scare is >>> largely based - by Steve McIntyre and Ross McKittrick. If you really >>> want to see the depths to which the so-called Hockey Team is prepared >>> to stoop, go to www.climateaudit.org and do some extensive reading. >>> Not only did McIntyre and McKittrick destroy the Hockey stick by >>> demonstrating that Mann et ors had misused and abused statistical >>> methodology to produce the stick effect - and showed that their >>> methodology and algorythms would produce a hockey stick virtually out >>> of any data fed into it, even random numbers, but also they have since >>> shown that the core data used was unsuitable for the purpose.
>>>>> Whether we agree or not with any particular view, it's undeniable that >>>>> scientist have become more political than before and that scientific >>>>> funding is directed to the "politically correct" in preference to the >>>>> skeptics. Stay in line or perish is the message. >>>> I have not seen this. What I have seen that is do not like >>>> at all are the publication of "research" conducted by >>>> scientists in the pay of big business. All too often the >>>> results so obtained favor the political position of the >>>> business which paid for the research. This was highly >>>> noticeable during the Bush II presidency, when conservative >>>> based think tanks published reports that there was no global >>>> warming at all (please don't look at the places where >>>> glaciers used to exist in Alaska and B.C., or the former ice >>>> shelf in Antarctica and especially do not look at the >>>> navigable Arctic Ocean). >>> Really? And yet there is still no evidence that any of this is >>> anthropogenic and it is simply nonsense to claim that there is. >> And if there is evidence, you will deny it anyways. Have >> you read the IPCC Fourth Assessment Reports (2007)? It came >> in three parts.
> Yes, Francis, and Reports two and three before that.
> Now I know you haven't even glanced at Climate Audit, because if you > had you'd understand why the IPPC's love affair with the Hockey Stick > destroyed any tiny vestige of credibility it might have had.
I did. The article to which you directed me was about homogeneous populations.
> And no, I don't deny evidence. I deny speculation. I misspoke above. > There is evidence of some anthropogenic warming, but nobody knows how > much is caused by human action, or which agent, eg CO2 or whatever. > It's also not clear whether the rise in CO2 causes global warming or > whether it is, itself, caused by global warming. IE, correlation > isn't causation. If it were CO2, its constant increase would be > reflected in constant temperature rise. Yet, so far, according to > authorities every bit as eminent as Mann and Co, despite the ceaseless > ad hominem sliming they receive in the media and from so-called > scientists, there is insufficient evidence to justify any sort of > drastic action let alone the sorts of actions proposed that will > bankrupt nations and impoverish whole generations of people to satisfy > the political ambitions of left wing extremists - which is what this > is all about. It's certainly not about science. >> > The >>> glaciers have been melting for centuries. >> Rate of melt has drastically changed. And as my >> brother-in-law David Holland (who hold the title (among >> others) of Director of CAOS) has been finding, in Greenland, >> the glaciers are now melting from below as well as from >> above. See >> http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.com/2008/10/david-holland-et-...
> So what? Once again, show us your evidence that any of this is caused > by human activity. It's only in the last 20,000 years that there has > been any ice on earth at all.
Dead wrong. The first ice age, known as the Huronian, goes back to about 2.5 billion years ago. There have been periodic ice ages since then. The Cryogenian (630 million years ago) was a major one. Then there was the Andean-Saharan of 430 million years ago. The Quarternary started only 2.6 million years ago - that is the current ice age in which we still live. Since then, periods of glaciation come and go about every 40,000 to 100,000 years. A lot of information has been derived from the drawing of deep ice cores. Of course, in a few decades such research may become impossible evermore.
>>> The Arctic Ocean has been >>> navigable at various times in the recent past. >> Oh? Care to be specific? >> Or will you concede this: >> http://eng.mediaport.ua/news/eworld/4890
> No, I won't concede that, because that particular expedition has been > a laughing stock, and not merely from the right. It had to be rescued
The main question, which you evaded, was can you be specific as to periods in recent history when the Arctic Ocean has been navigable by humans.
Mike Burke wrote: > On Tue, 10 Nov 2009 19:05:28 -0500, "Francis A. Miniter" > <famini...@comcast.net> wrote: [snip]
>> Denialism personified.
> And your attitude is? What? Blind faith in a totally corrupt UN > organisation? Confidence in "experts" who have failed to maintain a > professional detachment but who have allowed themselves be corrupted > by the easy money being poured into their pockets by self-interested > politicians and hucksters like Al Gore who is, not incidentally, > making billions putting his mouth where his money is?
> All I can hear from the average "warmist" is "BAAAAAAAAAA".
> Gimme a break.
> Mique
Mique, you are doing a yeoman's work standing up for the first scientific principle: reproduction of results. Results should always be scrutinized, and often are not. It was interesting to see the Einstein's Theory of Relativity discussed in light of new evidence taken from space telescopes. What was interesting (to me at least) was the fact that people still question results, even someone like Einstein. In my world, taxonomists categorize species interrelationships based on DNA sequencing, before any consensus on the technique has been obtained. Yet the work goes forward, and often gets taken back resulting in confusion. Perhaps I'm naively undergraduate in thinking that science can ever obtain a consensus. But the more you know the more you realize that everything is 'opinion'.
K Barrett wrote: > Mike Burke wrote: >> On Tue, 10 Nov 2009 19:05:28 -0500, "Francis A. Miniter" >> <famini...@comcast.net> wrote: > [snip]
>>> Denialism personified.
>> And your attitude is? What? Blind faith in a totally corrupt UN >> organisation? Confidence in "experts" who have failed to maintain a >> professional detachment but who have allowed themselves be corrupted >> by the easy money being poured into their pockets by self-interested >> politicians and hucksters like Al Gore who is, not incidentally, >> making billions putting his mouth where his money is? >> All I can hear from the average "warmist" is "BAAAAAAAAAA". >> Gimme a break. >> Mique
> Mique, you are doing a yeoman's work standing up for the first > scientific principle: reproduction of results. Results should always be > scrutinized, and often are not. It was interesting to see the > Einstein's Theory of Relativity discussed in light of new evidence taken > from space telescopes. What was interesting (to me at least) was the > fact that people still question results, even someone like Einstein. > In my world, taxonomists categorize species interrelationships based on > DNA sequencing, before any consensus on the technique has been obtained. > Yet the work goes forward, and often gets taken back resulting in > confusion. Perhaps I'm naively undergraduate in thinking that science > can ever obtain a consensus. But the more you know the more you realize > that everything is 'opinion'.
> Question authority
> K Barrett
In principle, that is very nice. But reality imposes a lot of limitations. For instance, how many expeditions are going to get funded to send teams of people to Greenland to measure the rate of melt along various parts of the glaciers for a five year period? Or, how many expeditions to Antarctica are going to be funded so that temperatures under an ice shelf (in the frigid waters) can be measured along with speed of flow of the water down there?
Measurements like these are difficult and costly, not to mention dangerous, to obtain. When performed by scientists whose methods are known and carefully described, the data so received is accepted as accurate. Even if an environmental study could be done the following year, it cannot exactly replicate the study data from the previous year. Conditions have changed.
How does one question measurements on one-time astronomical events? For instance, a star is perceived as going supernova by the sudden and brief increase in elementary particles observed going through an underground body of heavy water. That observation is incapable of reproduction. Do you just throw away those results because they are forever incapable of reproduction?
Mike is not standing up for reproduction of results. He is maintaining that almost all scientific inquiry is marred by association with political interests. His is a position of extreme denial of evidence. The IPCC reports, which he rejects, came to their conclusions on the basis of thousands of results obtained by scientists around the world. Reproduced and/or consistent findings. Does Mique accept that? He proclaimed in this thread that he did not. What then could convince Mique if the examination of so many tests is not enough? Nothing, I think. He has made up his mind, evidence or no evidence, and that is that. The earth is not warming; secondhand smoke will not hurt you. Evidence to the contrary has to be wrong.
-- Francis A. Miniter
Oscuramente libros, laminas, llaves siguen mi suerte.
Francis A. Miniter wrote: > Mike is not standing up for reproduction of results. He is maintaining > that almost all scientific inquiry is marred by association with > political interests. His is a position of extreme denial of evidence. > The IPCC reports, which he rejects, came to their conclusions on the > basis of thousands of results obtained by scientists around the world. > Reproduced and/or consistent findings. Does Mique accept that? He > proclaimed in this thread that he did not. What then could convince > Mique if the examination of so many tests is not enough? Nothing, I > think. He has made up his mind, evidence or no evidence, and that is > that. The earth is not warming; secondhand smoke will not hurt you. > Evidence to the contrary has to be wrong.
It was my impression that "global warming" was accepted now by those who discredited it earlier. The question is what is causing it, and can anything humans do make a change. Is it being caused by human activity, or is it a natural phenomenon? -- Joanne stitches @ singerlady.reno.nv.us.earth.milky-way.com http://members.tripod.com/~bernardschopen/
Francis A. Miniter wrote: > K Barrett wrote: >> Mike Burke wrote: >>> On Tue, 10 Nov 2009 19:05:28 -0500, "Francis A. Miniter" >>> <famini...@comcast.net> wrote: >> [snip]
>>>> Denialism personified.
>>> And your attitude is? What? Blind faith in a totally corrupt UN >>> organisation? Confidence in "experts" who have failed to maintain a >>> professional detachment but who have allowed themselves be corrupted >>> by the easy money being poured into their pockets by self-interested >>> politicians and hucksters like Al Gore who is, not incidentally, >>> making billions putting his mouth where his money is? All I can hear >>> from the average "warmist" is "BAAAAAAAAAA". Gimme a break. Mique
>> Mique, you are doing a yeoman's work standing up for the first >> scientific principle: reproduction of results. Results should always >> be scrutinized, and often are not. It was interesting to see the >> Einstein's Theory of Relativity discussed in light of new evidence >> taken from space telescopes. What was interesting (to me at least) >> was the fact that people still question results, even someone like >> Einstein. >> In my world, taxonomists categorize species interrelationships based >> on DNA sequencing, before any consensus on the technique has been >> obtained. Yet the work goes forward, and often gets taken back >> resulting in confusion. Perhaps I'm naively undergraduate in thinking >> that science can ever obtain a consensus. But the more you know the >> more you realize that everything is 'opinion'.
>> Question authority
>> K Barrett
> In principle, that is very nice. But reality imposes a lot of > limitations. For instance, how many expeditions are going to get funded > to send teams of people to Greenland to measure the rate of melt along > various parts of the glaciers for a five year period? Or, how many > expeditions to Antarctica are going to be funded so that temperatures > under an ice shelf (in the frigid waters) can be measured along with > speed of flow of the water down there?
> Measurements like these are difficult and costly, not to mention > dangerous, to obtain. When performed by scientists whose methods are > known and carefully described, the data so received is accepted as > accurate. Even if an environmental study could be done the following > year, it cannot exactly replicate the study data from the previous year. > Conditions have changed.
> How does one question measurements on one-time astronomical events? For > instance, a star is perceived as going supernova by the sudden and brief > increase in elementary particles observed going through an underground > body of heavy water. That observation is incapable of reproduction. Do > you just throw away those results because they are forever incapable of > reproduction?
> Mike is not standing up for reproduction of results. He is maintaining > that almost all scientific inquiry is marred by association with > political interests. His is a position of extreme denial of evidence. > The IPCC reports, which he rejects, came to their conclusions on the > basis of thousands of results obtained by scientists around the world. > Reproduced and/or consistent findings. Does Mique accept that? He > proclaimed in this thread that he did not. What then could convince > Mique if the examination of so many tests is not enough? Nothing, I > think. He has made up his mind, evidence or no evidence, and that is > that. The earth is not warming; secondhand smoke will not hurt you. > Evidence to the contrary has to be wrong.
Well, in principle this is very nice. But if a confirmatory expeditions to Antarctica can't be funded because the people doling out the money have already made up their minds then that's a political decision. And as to being unswayed by evidence to the contrary, I don't see you budging either, LOL!
You missed one factor, though it is more blatant recently - and that is science has become more politicised, and it corresponds with the rise of political religious fundamentalism. (not that it hasn't been down through the ages, but it seems more so in this country recently)
And here too - in the process jeopardising whatever tenuous claims its practitioners might have had to respect. <<For example? Just curious. barfly>>
I'm not sure if you meant here, or Oz, but here it's disgraceful. Stem cell research, global warming, abortion/birth control education and research.
Anti-scientific appointees to scientific research panels, and the rejection of any findings that challnge or frighten the religious right, of G. Bush's and friends' oil interests.
<<That chart is truly humiliating. We need a solution to this situation. Education must be part of it, but is it enough? -- Francis A. Miniter>>
No, not when you have significant numbers of parents who home- school their children so they won't be exposed to science. Or other evil influences, like "Heather Has two Mommies,," and normal kids.
<<The Sun is presently behaving unexpectedly in a number of ways.[117][118] * It is in the midst of an unusual sunspot minimum, lasting far longer and with a higher percentage of spotless days than normal; since May 2008, predictions of an imminent rise in activity have been regularly made and as regularly confuted.>>
ell...@webtv.net wrote: > <<The Sun is presently behaving unexpectedly in a number of > ways.[117][118] > * It is in the midst of an unusual sunspot > minimum, lasting far longer and with a higher percentage of spotless > days than normal; since May 2008, predictions of an imminent rise in > activity have been regularly made and as regularly confuted.>>
> Hellppp! We're doomed! We're all going to die!
> Or not.
> Ellen
Yep. In 3 Billion years the sun becomes a Red Giant and toasts us.
-- Francis A. Miniter
Oscuramente libros, laminas, llaves siguen mi suerte.