FW: THE UBIQUITOUS RATIONALE OF GROWTHISM - [NATIONAL NEWS 8793 - 2009, 29 JUNE] - Neighbourhood That Works

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Subject: FW: THE UBIQUITOUS RATIONALE OF GROWTHISM - [NATIONAL NEWS 8793 -
 2009, 29 JUNE]
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I got this from Garry Mallard. It outlines a catch-all case for population =
control - (by restricting immigration.)

=20

From what I can see it justifies itself by saying that "existing residents=
=2C be they of a city=2C or a nation=2C have a moral right to set limits" -=
 (presumably a right you get when you colonise=2C and a power to enforce li=
mits which you only gain by setting up an alliance with a nuclear power) ..=
.. in order=2C as the article says=2C to maintain a certain standard of liv=
ing and 'liveability'.

=20

Surely there is a moral argument for sharing the earth and redistributing i=
ts wealth through immigration/ refugees=2C but we end up with have strange =
bedfellows in the property lobby.The article identifies the self interest o=
f developers and property investors in increasing demand through immigratio=
n.

=20

Chris =20


=20


From: national.n...@thenexus.org.au
To: national.n...@thenexus.org.au
Subject: THE UBIQUITOUS RATIONALE OF GROWTHISM - [NATIONAL NEWS 8793 - 2009=
=2C 29 JUNE]
Date: Mon=2C 29 Jun 2009 10:54:01 +1000




TSN NATIONAL NEWS








PLEASE NOTE: THIS EMAIL IS DELIVERED BCC TO MULTIPLE RECIPIENTS]
=20






































THE UBIQUITOUS RATIONALE OF GROWTHISM
Monday=2C 29 June=2C 2009
By Time Murray
Online Opinion
=20
It=92s uncanny. Two cities on two continents=2C but =93growthists=94 in Van=
couver and Melbourne seem to be reading from the same playbook.
=20
Lance Berelowitz=2C an urban planner who chaired Vancouver=92s planning com=
mission=2C praised the Mayor=92s so-called =93Eco-Density=94 initiative as =
the answer to the city=92s ever-increasing house prices. Given that between=
 800=2C000 to one million new residents are expected to come to Greater Van=
couver in the next 25 years=2C it can be assumed that developmental pressur=
es on the city=92s limited land base will steeply drive up land costs. It f=
ollows then=2C that =93housing prices in Vancouver will keep going up=2C un=
less we substantially increase the housing supply to match the ageing deman=
d.=94
=20
For Berelowitz it is unconscionable that Vancouver=2C currently representin=
g about 27 per cent of the metro area=92s 2.2 million citizens=2C continues=
 to throw up a kind of cordon sanitaire around its perimeter and not =93sho=
ulder its load=94 by accepting its share of growth. To do this he offers se=
veral European solutions to shove more innovative housing units into the ar=
ea. But what is interesting about his plan is that he failed to mention Van=
couver=92s housing surplus. Between 1991 and 2006 Vancouver grew by 126=2C0=
00 people who required 15=2C000 new dwellings to house them. But developers=
 built 69=2C000 units. According to activist Randy Chatterton=2C judging fr=
om BC Hydro statistics=2C 18=2C000 units are unoccupied=2C and MLS listings=
 are up 26 per cent while sales are down 10 per cent. Now there are seven u=
noccupied apartments for every homeless person in Vancouver.
=20
=93Accepting our share of growth=94 is a standard line of urban planners an=
d politicians. What they never reveal is their role in not only accommodati=
ng growth but promoting it. Developers build houses on spec. They are built=
 on the expectation that compliant governments will continue to provide int=
ernational clientele (migrants) and the monetary and tax policy necessary t=
o lubricate investment in real estate. It is a case study of Say=92s Law - =
supply creates its own demand. Berelowitz never once thought to question th=
e necessity for Vancouver to grow by 45 per cent in the next quarter centur=
y. He never thought to consult Dr Michael Healey=92s landmark 1997 study of=
 the Fraser Basin ecosystem that recommended a halt to immigration and a Po=
pulation Plan to defend the region and others like it from runaway populati=
on growth. That=92s because the ideology of urban planning is not growth-co=
ntrol but =93growth management=94.
=20
Former real estate developer and media mouthpiece Bob Ransford recently =93=
despaired=94 of those in Vancouver with=2C are you ready for this old chest=
nut=2C a =93drawbridge mentality=94=2C that is=2C =93who think we can resis=
t the global flow of population and somehow sustain our lifestyle=94. One w=
onders what kind of lifestyle Ransford imagines for the Vancouverites force=
d to live like sardines in a sardine can just so more migrants can move in =
and buy the bachelor suite closets that his developer friends would obligin=
gly sell them. It seems logical that the law of physics would place a limit=
 on the process of densification that Berelowitz=2C Ransford and the Mayor =
would set in motion=2C but so far they have shown no apprehension of it. An=
d the law of =93livability=94 would surely fall well short of that physical=
 limit.
=20
One wonders how Ransford would behave if he were the last of ten passengers=
 on an elevator that safety regulations set at ten. Would he hold open the =
door for more people in the lobby who wanted in because he feared being acc=
used of =93Nimbyism=94 or having a =93drawbridge mentality=94? Would he suf=
fer an urban planner who insisted that the elevator could hold 12 or 15 peo=
ple=2C or a real estate developer who sold tickets to more people than coul=
d safely ride on the contraption? Would he listen to a human rights advocat=
e who said that every person of colour from another country had a right to =
jam on board regardless of the elevator=92s carrying capacity because it wa=
s a matter of social justice? If it was a matter of profit=2C one suspects =
he would. Growthists can=92t grasp the concept that existing passengers=2C =
existing residents=2C be they of a city=2C or a nation=2C have a moral righ=
t to set limits.
=20
Ransford ices his argument with more tired clich=E9s. Clich=E9 number one: =
=93Our kids will not be able to afford to live in a city where no new housi=
ng is built.=94 Trouble is =93our kids=94 aren=92t buying that new housing.=
 In Greater Vancouver 85 per cent of new housing is occupied by immigrants=
=2C while 70 per cent of new housing in other Canadian urban centres is occ=
upied by =93new=94 Canadians.
=20
Clich=E9 number two: =93If we halted growth we will have a real labour shor=
tage with our rapidly ageing population.=94 Fact: the C.D. Howe Institute d=
emonstrated that it would take an unsustainable immigration rate 28 times h=
igher than its present rate for the next 50 years for Canada to maintain it=
s present age structure. Postponed retirements and higher productivity will=
 greatly lessen the impact of this over-hyped bogeyman.
=20
Lastly=2C Ransford recruited the words of retired planner Peter Oberlander =
who said that compact settlement patterns were an inevitable feature of urb=
an growth especially where we were committed to preserving agricultural lan=
d. =93The city is humanity=92s supreme achievement=94=2C he maintained=2C i=
n dismissing fears about continued growth. Apparently Oberlander never hear=
d of the failure of =93smart growth=94 in America or the compromise of Brit=
ish greenbelts by developers or he might be less confident in his =93compac=
t settlement patterns.=94 And when it is recalled that a Greek polis was id=
eally imagined to consist of 5=2C000 citizens=2C one shudders to think that=
 today a city of five million is considered a =93supreme achievement=94.
=20
In a speech that could have been ghost-written by any of the aforementioned=
 Canadian growth-a-holics=2C Premier John Brumby of Victoria spoke of his g=
overnment=92s plan to =93manage growth=94=2C because you see=2C growth is i=
nevitable=2C and growth projections must be treated as=2C if anything=2C =
=93pessimistic=94=2C i.e. conservative. Thus Melbourne is going to grow at =
least 44 per cent by 2030=2C with 6.2 million people by 2020. =93Demographe=
r Bernard Salt has projected we will regain our title (sic) as Australia=92=
s largest city within 20 years.=94 Note that the Premier treats a populatio=
n growth plateau like a sports trophy to be raised aloft in triumph. Melbou=
rne will regain its =93title=94 like Mohammed Ali regained his title agains=
t George Foreman. Similarly when Victoria was =93losing=94 people in the 19=
90s=2C presumably the state of Victoria was a =93loser=94. But now =93the e=
xodus has been turned around and people are now voting with their feet in f=
avour of Victoria=94. It is as if Premier Brumby is fighting an election ca=
mpaign and people moving to Victoria are casting a vote for him. A commonpl=
ace illusion among Premiers=2C Governors and Prime Ministers
=20
But he does acknowledge the strain that in-migration places on infrastructu=
re and states that a million extra residents will require 380=2C000 new hou=
ses or apartments. Given Melbourne=92s growth rate=2C he projects only a 17=
-year supply of land=2C and housing affordability=2C planning and supply is=
sues demand full attention. He confesses that =93the faster we grow the gre=
ater the demand on land supply=94. Yet the one option that Brumby will not =
consider of course is to lobby the federal government for a severe cutback =
on immigration. Out comes a variant of Canadian Clich=E9 number two: =93we =
are facing a skills gap of 123=2C000 jobs over the next decade=2C which cou=
ld curb our ability to benefit from the climate change economy.=94 Victoria=
 attracts 27 per cent of Australia=92s skilled migrants=2C and Melbourne 25=
 per cent of migrants of all categories. It is curious that the Premier wou=
ld think that the importation of workers would be key to fighting climate c=
hange=2C when research clearly indicates that the best climate change fight=
ing strategy is reducing population growth.
=20
Certainly the Vancouver experience leads one to question the party line of =
housing lobby groups that releasing more land is requisite to housing affor=
dability. Australian Property Monitors operations director Michael McNamara=
 argues that =93demand for housing is extremely flat and developers haven=
=92t been able to sell the projects that they=92ve got=2C let alone launch =
new projects - so we totally dismiss the argument that releasing more land =
on our cities=92 outskirts is going to affect affordability=94. ANZ Bank se=
nior economist Paul Braddick says =93there is no strong evidence to suggest=
 that a lack of land supply has been driving up prices. The proof of that i=
s house prices have gone up across the board - indicating it is not just la=
nd availability that is the culprit here.=94 Macquarie Bank analyst Rory Ro=
bertson attributes the fact that city house prices have grown 75 per cent f=
aster than wages in the past 20 years to a halving of interest rates=2C the=
 halving of capital gains taxes in 1999 and massive immigration which chose=
 to settle in the eight capital cities.
=20
Of relevance here is a study done by Bob Birrell and Ernest Healy of Monash=
 University in 2003 entitled Migration and the Housing Affordability Crisis=
. While the authors acknowledge that Melbourne=92s housing price spiral =93=
cannot be attributed to recent migration levels=2C=94 they qualify their st=
atement with significant findings. =93The impact of migration varies sharpl=
y by metropolis. For Sydney the share of household growth attributable to n=
et migration in 2001-2002 is 47.8 per cent Migration makes the next biggest=
 impact in Perth where it is projected to contribute 33.5 per cent of house=
hold growth=2C then Melbourne where it constitutes 28.6 per cent of growth =
in 2001-2002.=94 By 2021=2C however=2C migration will account for 63 per ce=
nt of Melbourne=92s household growth.
=20
=93Developers and builders are already heavily dependent on immigration to =
sustain their activities in Sydney. Within a decade those operating in Melb=
ourne and Perth will be dependant on immigration for nearly half the underl=
ying household growth. This will apply to Australia as a whole by 2021 when=
 48.4 per cent of household growth will derive from overseas migration.=94 =
It is in this context that the idea advanced by population sociologist Shei=
la Newman that property developers are key lobbyists for the country=92s ec=
ologically suicidal policy of high immigration becomes very plausible. As B=
irrell and Healy state=2C =93It is no wonder that the housing and property =
industries in Australia are so keen for high migration=94.
=20
That immigration has a crucial impact on housing affordability is not immed=
iately apprehended in any correlation of housing price increases in six maj=
or Australian cities with a given volume of migrant settlers. From 1989 to =
2002 Sydney increased 30.7 per cent=2C Melbourne 20.5 per cent=2C Brisbane =
45.8 per cent=2C Perth 23.5 per cent Adelaide 28.1 per cent and Canberra 34=
.8 per cent. What must be understood=2C however=2C is while certainly inves=
tors and speculators played a major role in the housing price spiral=2C imm=
igration boosted their confidence=2C and without that the spiral would neve=
r have taken off. That is why=2C Birrell and Healy explain=2C Sydney=92s ho=
using bubble remained the strongest=2C for even if immigrants demanded main=
ly rental accommodations=2C =93this is still vital to investors if they are=
 to fill their properties with tenants=94.
=20
=93In the case of Sydney=2C the intuition of residents and some politicians=
 that immigration is a factor in the housing affordability crisis=2C is cor=
rect. The absence of the immigration component of household growth in Sydne=
y would significantly reduce the underlying gap between demand and supply. =
There is little doubt that a reduction in the national immigration intake w=
ould improve affordability in Sydney.=94
=20
The authors conclude by saying that =93Immigration is an important underlyi=
ng factor shaping growth in demand for housing prices because of its role i=
n household formation =85 By 2021=2C according to our projections=2C the mi=
gration component of household formation in Sydney will be around 75 per ce=
nt=2C in Melbourne and Adelaide 60 per cent and in Perth 54 per cent=94.
=20
As a rule of thumb=2C according to Albert Saiz of the University of Pennsyl=
vania=2C =93an immigrant inflow of 1 per cent of a city=92s population is a=
ssociated with increases in average rent and housing prices of about 1 per =
cent .=94 (Journal of Economics=2C Volume 6=2C Issue 2)
=20
By that token then=2C immigration has added 18 per cent to the price of Van=
couver real estate=2C or to put it another way=2C it has reduced the supply=
 of housing stock available to resident buyers and the price mechanism has =
adjusted accordingly.
=20
The logic of growthism calls for an increase in supply=2C for more housing =
units through more density and/or the release or development of more land. =
The logic of common sense=2C however=2C calls for a decrease in demand=2C t=
hat is=2C a decrease in tax incentives for real estate investors and specul=
ators and a reduction in migrants.
=20
Whether it be Vancouver or Melbourne=2C throughout the Anglophone world=2C =
the issues are the same=2C cloaked in the same euphemistic code language of=
 growthism. The choices are ours to make.
=20
About the Author
Tim Murray blogs at (We) Can Do Better. He is Director of Immigration Watch=
 Canada=2C and Vice President Biodiversity Canada which he co-founded. Tim =
is a member of Sustainable Population Australia=2C the Population Institute=
 of Canada and Optimum Population Trust UK. His personal blog is at sinking=
lifeboat.blogspot.com.
=20
http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=3D9020
=20
=20





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<FONT face=3DArial>I got this from Garry Mallard. It outlines a catch-all c=
ase&nbsp=3Bfor population control - (by restricting immigration.)</FONT><BR=
>
<FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp=3B<BR>
<FONT face=3DArial>From what I can see it justifies itself by saying that "=
<SPAN lang=3DEN-AU style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt=3B COLOR: #444444=3B FONT-FAMIL=
Y: 'Trebuchet MS'=3B mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'=3B mso-bidi=
-font-family: Tahoma=3B mso-ansi-language: EN-AU=3B mso-fareast-language: E=
N-US=3B mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><FONT face=3DArial>existing residents=2C =
be </FONT>they of a city=2C or a nation=2C have a moral right to set limits=
" - (presumably a right you get when you colonise=2C and a power to enforce=
&nbsp=3Blimits which you only gain by setting up an alliance with a&nbsp=3B=
nuclear power) .... in order=2C as the article says=2C&nbsp=3Bto maintain a=
 certain standard of living&nbsp=3Band 'liveability'.</SPAN></FONT><BR>
<SPAN lang=3DEN-AU style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt=3B COLOR: #444444=3B FONT-FAMIL=
Y: 'Trebuchet MS'=3B mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'=3B mso-bidi=
-font-family: Tahoma=3B mso-ansi-language: EN-AU=3B mso-fareast-language: E=
N-US=3B mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><FONT face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp=3B=
<BR>
<SPAN lang=3DEN-AU style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt=3B COLOR: #444444=3B FONT-FAMIL=
Y: 'Trebuchet MS'=3B mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'=3B mso-bidi=
-font-family: Tahoma=3B mso-ansi-language: EN-AU=3B mso-fareast-language: E=
N-US=3B mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><FONT face=3DArial>Surely&nbsp=3Bthere is=
 a moral argument for sharing the earth and redistributing its wealth throu=
gh immigration/ refugees=2C&nbsp=3Bbut&nbsp=3Bwe end up with have strange b=
edfellows in the property lobby.The article&nbsp=3Bidentifies the self inte=
rest of developers and property investors in increasing demand through immi=
gration.</FONT></SPAN><BR>
<SPAN lang=3DEN-AU style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt=3B COLOR: #444444=3B FONT-FAMIL=
Y: 'Trebuchet MS'=3B mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'=3B mso-bidi=
-font-family: Tahoma=3B mso-ansi-language: EN-AU=3B mso-fareast-language: E=
N-US=3B mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><FONT face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp=3B=
<BR>
<SPAN lang=3DEN-AU style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt=3B COLOR: #444444=3B FONT-FAMIL=
Y: 'Trebuchet MS'=3B mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'=3B mso-bidi=
-font-family: Tahoma=3B mso-ansi-language: EN-AU=3B mso-fareast-language: E=
N-US=3B mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><FONT face=3DArial>Chris&nbsp=3B </FONT><=
/SPAN><BR>
<BR><FONT face=3DArial>&nbsp=3B</FONT><BR><FONT face=3DArial>
<HR id=3DstopSpelling>
From: national.n...@thenexus.org.au<BR>To: national.n...@thenexus.org.au<BR=
>Subject: THE UBIQUITOUS RATIONALE OF GROWTHISM - [NATIONAL NEWS 8793 - 200=
9=2C 29 JUNE]<BR>Date: Mon=2C 29 Jun 2009 10:54:01 +1000<BR><BR></FONT>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV align=3Dcenter><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#008000 size=3D4><STRONG>TSN=
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<DIV align=3Dcenter><FONT face=3DArial size=3D1>PLEASE NOTE: THIS EMAIL IS =
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<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial><FONT color=3D#008000 size=3D4><STRONG=
><EM>THE UBIQUITOUS RATIONALE OF GROWTHISM</EM></STRONG></FONT><BR></FONT><=
EM><FONT face=3DArial>Monday=2C 29 June=2C 2009<BR>By Time Murray<BR>Online=
 Opinion</FONT></EM></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>&nbsp=3B</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>It=92s uncanny. Two cities on two cont=
inents=2C but =93growthists=94 in Vancouver and Melbourne seem to be readin=
g from the same playbook.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>&nbsp=3B</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>Lance Berelowitz=2C an urban planner w=
ho chaired Vancouver=92s planning commission=2C praised the Mayor=92s so-ca=
lled =93Eco-Density=94 initiative as the answer to the city=92s ever-increa=
sing house prices. Given that between 800=2C000 to one million new resident=
s are expected to come to Greater Vancouver in the next 25 years=2C it can =
be assumed that developmental pressures on the city=92s limited land base w=
ill steeply drive up land costs. It follows then=2C that =93housing prices =
in Vancouver will keep going up=2C unless we substantially increase the hou=
sing supply to match the ageing demand.=94</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>&nbsp=3B</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>For Berelowitz it is unconscionable th=
at Vancouver=2C currently representing about 27 per cent of the metro area=
=92s 2.2 million citizens=2C continues to throw up a kind of cordon sanitai=
re around its perimeter and not =93shoulder its load=94 by accepting its sh=
are of growth. To do this he offers several European solutions to shove mor=
e innovative housing units into the area. But what is interesting about his=
 plan is that he failed to mention Vancouver=92s housing surplus. Between 1=
991 and 2006 Vancouver grew by 126=2C000 people who required 15=2C000 new d=
wellings to house them. But developers built 69=2C000 units. According to a=
ctivist Randy Chatterton=2C judging from BC Hydro statistics=2C 18=2C000 un=
its are unoccupied=2C and MLS listings are up 26 per cent while sales are d=
own 10 per cent. Now there are seven unoccupied apartments for every homele=
ss person in Vancouver.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>&nbsp=3B</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>=93Accepting our share of growth=94 is=
 a standard line of urban planners and politicians. What they never reveal =
is their role in not only accommodating growth but promoting it. Developers=
 build houses on spec. They are built on the expectation that compliant gov=
ernments will continue to provide international clientele (migrants) and th=
e monetary and tax policy necessary to lubricate investment in real estate.=
 It is a case study of Say=92s Law - supply creates its own demand. Berelow=
itz never once thought to question the necessity for Vancouver to grow by 4=
5 per cent in the next quarter century. He never thought to consult Dr Mich=
ael Healey=92s landmark 1997 study of the Fraser Basin ecosystem that recom=
mended a halt to immigration and a Population Plan to defend the region and=
 others like it from runaway population growth. That=92s because the ideolo=
gy of urban planning is not growth-control but =93growth management=94.</FO=
NT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>&nbsp=3B</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>Former real estate developer and media=
 mouthpiece Bob Ransford recently =93despaired=94 of those in Vancouver wit=
h=2C are you ready for this old chestnut=2C a =93drawbridge mentality=94=2C=
 that is=2C =93who think we can resist the global flow of population and so=
mehow sustain our lifestyle=94. One wonders what kind of lifestyle Ransford=
 imagines for the Vancouverites forced to live like sardines in a sardine c=
an just so more migrants can move in and buy the bachelor suite closets tha=
t his developer friends would obligingly sell them. It seems logical that t=
he law of physics would place a limit on the process of densification that =
Berelowitz=2C Ransford and the Mayor would set in motion=2C but so far they=
 have shown no apprehension of it. And the law of =93livability=94 would su=
rely fall well short of that physical limit.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>&nbsp=3B</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>One wonders how Ransford would behave =
if he were the last of ten passengers on an elevator that safety regulation=
s set at ten. Would he hold open the door for more people in the lobby who =
wanted in because he feared being accused of =93Nimbyism=94 or having a =93=
drawbridge mentality=94? Would he suffer an urban planner who insisted that=
 the elevator could hold 12 or 15 people=2C or a real estate developer who =
sold tickets to more people than could safely ride on the contraption? Woul=
d he listen to a human rights advocate who said that every person of colour=
 from another country had a right to jam on board regardless of the elevato=
r=92s carrying capacity because it was a matter of social justice? If it wa=
s a matter of profit=2C one suspects he would. Growthists can=92t grasp the=
 concept that existing passengers=2C existing residents=2C be they of a cit=
y=2C or a nation=2C have a moral right to set limits.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>&nbsp=3B</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>Ransford ices his argument with more t=
ired clich=E9s. Clich=E9 number one: =93Our kids will not be able to afford=
 to live in a city where no new housing is built.=94 Trouble is =93our kids=
=94 aren=92t buying that new housing. In Greater Vancouver 85 per cent of n=
ew housing is occupied by immigrants=2C while 70 per cent of new housing in=
 other Canadian urban centres is occupied by =93new=94 Canadians.</FONT></D=
IV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>&nbsp=3B</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>Clich=E9 number two: =93If we halted g=
rowth we will have a real labour shortage with our rapidly ageing populatio=
n.=94 Fact: the C.D. Howe Institute demonstrated that it would take an unsu=
stainable immigration rate 28 times higher than its present rate for the ne=
xt 50 years for Canada to maintain its present age structure. Postponed ret=
irements and higher productivity will greatly lessen the impact of this ove=
r-hyped bogeyman.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>&nbsp=3B</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>Lastly=2C Ransford recruited the words=
 of retired planner Peter Oberlander who said that compact settlement patte=
rns were an inevitable feature of urban growth especially where we were com=
mitted to preserving agricultural land. =93The city is humanity=92s supreme=
 achievement=94=2C he maintained=2C in dismissing fears about continued gro=
wth. Apparently Oberlander never heard of the failure of =93smart growth=94=
 in America or the compromise of British greenbelts by developers or he mig=
ht be less confident in his =93compact settlement patterns.=94 And when it =
is recalled that a Greek polis was ideally imagined to consist of 5=2C000 c=
itizens=2C one shudders to think that today a city of five million is consi=
dered a =93supreme achievement=94.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>&nbsp=3B</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>In a speech that could have been ghost=
-written by any of the aforementioned Canadian growth-a-holics=2C Premier J=
ohn Brumby of Victoria spoke of his government=92s plan to =93manage growth=
=94=2C because you see=2C growth is inevitable=2C and growth projections mu=
st be treated as=2C if anything=2C =93pessimistic=94=2C i.e. conservative. =
Thus Melbourne is going to grow at least 44 per cent by 2030=2C with 6.2 mi=
llion people by 2020. =93Demographer Bernard Salt has projected we will reg=
ain our title (sic) as Australia=92s largest city within 20 years.=94 Note =
that the Premier treats a population growth plateau like a sports trophy to=
 be raised aloft in triumph. Melbourne will regain its =93title=94 like Moh=
ammed Ali regained his title against George Foreman. Similarly when Victori=
a was =93losing=94 people in the 1990s=2C presumably the state of Victoria =
was a =93loser=94. But now =93the exodus has been turned around and people =
are now voting with their feet in favour of Victoria=94. It is as if Premie=
r Brumby is fighting an election campaign and people moving to Victoria are=
 casting a vote for him. A commonplace illusion among Premiers=2C Governors=
 and Prime Ministers</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>&nbsp=3B</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>But he does acknowledge the strain tha=
t in-migration places on infrastructure and states that a million extra res=
idents will require 380=2C000 new houses or apartments. Given Melbourne=92s=
 growth rate=2C he projects only a 17-year supply of land=2C and housing af=
fordability=2C planning and supply issues demand full attention. He confess=
es that =93the faster we grow the greater the demand on land supply=94. Yet=
 the one option that Brumby will not consider of course is to lobby the fed=
eral government for a severe cutback on immigration. Out comes a variant of=
 Canadian Clich=E9 number two: =93we are facing a skills gap of 123=2C000 j=
obs over the next decade=2C which could curb our ability to benefit from th=
e climate change economy.=94 Victoria attracts 27 per cent of Australia=92s=
 skilled migrants=2C and Melbourne 25 per cent of migrants of all categorie=
s. It is curious that the Premier would think that the importation of worke=
rs would be key to fighting climate change=2C when research clearly indicat=
es that the best climate change fighting strategy is reducing population gr=
owth.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>&nbsp=3B</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>Certainly the Vancouver experience lea=
ds one to question the party line of housing lobby groups that releasing mo=
re land is requisite to housing affordability. Australian Property Monitors=
 operations director Michael McNamara argues that =93demand for housing is =
extremely flat and developers haven=92t been able to sell the projects that=
 they=92ve got=2C let alone launch new projects - so we totally dismiss the=
 argument that releasing more land on our cities=92 outskirts is going to a=
ffect affordability=94. ANZ Bank senior economist Paul Braddick says =93the=
re is no strong evidence to suggest that a lack of land supply has been dri=
ving up prices. The proof of that is house prices have gone up across the b=
oard - indicating it is not just land availability that is the culprit here=
.=94 Macquarie Bank analyst Rory Robertson attributes the fact that city ho=
use prices have grown 75 per cent faster than wages in the past 20 years to=
 a halving of interest rates=2C the halving of capital gains taxes in 1999 =
and massive immigration which chose to settle in the eight capital cities.<=
/FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>&nbsp=3B</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>Of relevance here is a study done by B=
ob Birrell and Ernest Healy of Monash University in 2003 entitled Migration=
 and the Housing Affordability Crisis. While the authors acknowledge that M=
elbourne=92s housing price spiral =93cannot be attributed to recent migrati=
on levels=2C=94 they qualify their statement with significant findings. =93=
The impact of migration varies sharply by metropolis. For Sydney the share =
of household growth attributable to net migration in 2001-2002 is 47.8 per =
cent Migration makes the next biggest impact in Perth where it is projected=
 to contribute 33.5 per cent of household growth=2C then Melbourne where it=
 constitutes 28.6 per cent of growth in 2001-2002.=94 By 2021=2C however=2C=
 migration will account for 63 per cent of Melbourne=92s household growth.<=
/FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>&nbsp=3B</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>=93Developers and builders are already=
 heavily dependent on immigration to sustain their activities in Sydney. Wi=
thin a decade those operating in Melbourne and Perth will be dependant on i=
mmigration for nearly half the underlying household growth. This will apply=
 to Australia as a whole by 2021 when 48.4 per cent of household growth wil=
l derive from overseas migration.=94 It is in this context that the idea ad=
vanced by population sociologist Sheila Newman that property developers are=
 key lobbyists for the country=92s ecologically suicidal policy of high imm=
igration becomes very plausible. As Birrell and Healy state=2C =93It is no =
wonder that the housing and property industries in Australia are so keen fo=
r high migration=94.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>&nbsp=3B</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>That immigration has a crucial impact =
on housing affordability is not immediately apprehended in any correlation =
of housing price increases in six major Australian cities with a given volu=
me of migrant settlers. From 1989 to 2002 Sydney increased 30.7 per cent=2C=
 Melbourne 20.5 per cent=2C Brisbane 45.8 per cent=2C Perth 23.5 per cent A=
delaide 28.1 per cent and Canberra 34.8 per cent. What must be understood=
=2C however=2C is while certainly investors and speculators played a major =
role in the housing price spiral=2C immigration boosted their confidence=2C=
 and without that the spiral would never have taken off. That is why=2C Bir=
rell and Healy explain=2C Sydney=92s housing bubble remained the strongest=
=2C for even if immigrants demanded mainly rental accommodations=2C =93this=
 is still vital to investors if they are to fill their properties with tena=
nts=94.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>&nbsp=3B</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>=93In the case of Sydney=2C the intuit=
ion of residents and some politicians that immigration is a factor in the h=
ousing affordability crisis=2C is correct. The absence of the immigration c=
omponent of household growth in Sydney would significantly reduce the under=
lying gap between demand and supply. There is little doubt that a reduction=
 in the national immigration intake would improve affordability in Sydney.=
=94</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>&nbsp=3B</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>The authors conclude by saying that =
=93Immigration is an important underlying factor shaping growth in demand f=
or housing prices because of its role in household formation =85 By 2021=2C=
 according to our projections=2C the migration component of household forma=
tion in Sydney will be around 75 per cent=2C in Melbourne and Adelaide 60 p=
er cent and in Perth 54 per cent=94.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>&nbsp=3B</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>As a rule of thumb=2C according to Alb=
ert Saiz of the University of Pennsylvania=2C =93an immigrant inflow of 1 p=
er cent of a city=92s population is associated with increases in average re=
nt and housing prices of about 1 per cent .=94 (Journal of Economics=2C Vol=
ume 6=2C Issue 2)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>&nbsp=3B</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>By that token then=2C immigration has =
added 18 per cent to the price of Vancouver real estate=2C or to put it ano=
ther way=2C it has reduced the supply of housing stock available to residen=
t buyers and the price mechanism has adjusted accordingly.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>&nbsp=3B</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>The logic of growthism calls for an in=
crease in supply=2C for more housing units through more density and/or the =
release or development of more land. The logic of common sense=2C however=
=2C calls for a decrease in demand=2C that is=2C a decrease in tax incentiv=
es for real estate investors and speculators and a reduction in migrants.</=
FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>&nbsp=3B</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>Whether it be Vancouver or Melbourne=
=2C throughout the Anglophone world=2C the issues are the same=2C cloaked i=
n the same euphemistic code language of growthism. The choices are ours to =
make.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>&nbsp=3B</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><STRONG><FONT face=3DArial>About the Author</FONT></STRON=
G></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>Tim Murray blogs at (We) Can Do Better=
. He is Director of Immigration Watch Canada=2C and Vice President Biodiver=
sity Canada which he co-founded. Tim is a member of Sustainable Population =
Australia=2C the Population Institute of Canada and Optimum Population Trus=
t UK. His personal blog is at sinkinglifeboat.blogspot.com.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>&nbsp=3B</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><A><FONT face=3DArial>http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/vie=
w.asp?article=3D9020</FONT></A></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>&nbsp=3B</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>&nbsp=3B</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial>
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