Was watching the Bay of Bengal last week and there was a lot of disorganised
deep convection, the area looked 'primed'....However listened to a recording
of the Rangoon B.O.M interview who had posted a warning 48 hours prior to
landfall,  however the chap being interview definitely played down the
expected strength to about 80 to 100kph and weakening. Now there are some
very important issued with this cyclone first it drove a storm surge ahead
of the centre so warm sea surface temps are forced inland through the delta
region allowing the central core to keep feeding off near saturated surface
air thus allowing the potential for the cyclone to maintain strength further
inland, looking at the sat pics suspect better than cat 3.  The appalling
death toll is almost unprecedented but according to eye witnesses sea levels
rose 12 to 20 feet ! and flowed tens of kilometres inland from the shore
line. Its apparent the storm surge preceded the cyclone core so the poor
people are forced to the roof tops...the wind did the rest....It makes my
blood boil to see what some of these despot military juntas will do to
maintain their pathetic methods of rule....regards Clyve H