Clyve, just thought you might be interested to know of one of those high thickness/snow scenarios for NE NSW tonight. I remember you mentioning this in a previous post. Models have the 540 line barely reaching the central NSW tablelands before completely leaving the area by around midnight. This is despite the categorical precip forecasts suggesting a bit of snow much further north on the NE NSW tablelands right up to around 10am next morning (not to mention < 0C temps at 850hpa reaching up to near the Qld/NSW border also). Forecast soundings for that area appear to suggest the reason for this - a shallow layer of cold moist air in the lowest 1000-2000ft then a really massive inversion/warm air above it right up to around 18,000ft. Even though there's pretty cold air down low, this layer looks extremely shallow and not enough to lower thicknesses below 540.

I also heard an unconfirmed report of snow on the central NSW tablelands this morning even though the 540 line barely reaches that area according to LAPS analysis. The above reason might explain this one as well.

Ken.

From: mes...@iprimus.com.au
To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com
Subject: [austpacwx] Winter is here
Date: Fri, 3 Jul 2009 12:24:54 +1000

Hi all.
Real winter has arrived in the central ranges Vic....Bright sunshine 50kph souwester 6c and a wind chill of minus 5c....The mean maximum for Trentham is 7c in Jully and the mean Min is 2c...and now for 5 weeks of proper cold....regards Clyve H