Winter is here - austpacwx

Message from discussion Winter is here
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From: "Keith Barnett" <r81n-...@bigpond.net.au>
To: <austpacwx@googlegroups.com>
References: <55FF627C882749DA95E4AF87BEF022A4@weather> <BLU140-W18CB77D8DC91C6B40BC382842C0@phx.gbl>
Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Re: Winter is here
Date: Fri, 3 Jul 2009 15:00:58 +1000
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Disposition-Notification-To: "Keith Barnett" <r81n-...@bigpond.net.au>

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I have a partially obstructed view from here of the Blue Mountains west of =
Sydney and it doesn't look too much like anything there except on the weste=
rn side, just some fairly shallow cumulus with virga or showers. Usually I =
can tell if there's snow in it as the clouds then have a different look alt=
ogether..but maybe I've got imaginitis. A fair bit of passing cumulus more =
generally but nothing above that until you get to probably 35000 feet (cirr=
ostratus). Very large storm clouds 200km or so out to sea.

Very windy here now with gusts up to 63km, no doubt stronger nearer the coa=
st. Wind chill down to 4=B0 which is pretty low for Sydney.
  ----- Original Message -----=20
  From: Ken Kato=20
  To: Austpacwx=20
  Sent: Friday, July 03, 2009 2:41 PM
  Subject: [austpacwx] Re: Winter is here


  Clyve, just thought you might be interested to know of one of those high =
thickness/snow scenarios for NE NSW tonight. I remember you mentioning this=
 in a previous post. Models have the 540 line barely reaching the central N=
SW tablelands before completely leaving the area by around midnight. This i=
s despite the categorical precip forecasts suggesting a bit of snow much fu=
rther north on the NE NSW tablelands right up to around 10am next morning (=
not to mention < 0C temps at 850hpa reaching up to near the Qld/NSW border =
also). Forecast soundings for that area appear to suggest the reason for th=
is - a shallow layer of cold moist air in the lowest 1000-2000ft then a rea=
lly massive inversion/warm air above it right up to around 18,000ft. Even t=
hough there's pretty cold air down low, this layer looks extremely shallow =
and not enough to lower thicknesses below 540.
   =20
  I also heard an unconfirmed report of snow on the central NSW tablelands =
this morning even though the 540 line barely reaches that area according to=
 LAPS analysis. The above reason might explain this one as well.
  =20
  Ken.
  =20

---------------------------------------------------------------------------=
---
  From: mes...@iprimus.com.au
  To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com
  Subject: [austpacwx] Winter is here
  Date: Fri, 3 Jul 2009 12:24:54 +1000


  Hi all.
  Real winter has arrived in the central ranges Vic....Bright sunshine 50kp=
h souwester 6c and a wind chill of minus 5c....The mean maximum for Trentha=
m is 7c in Jully and the mean Min is 2c...and now for 5 weeks of proper col=
d....regards Clyve H



 =20

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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D3>I have a partially obstruc=
ted view=20
from here of the Blue Mountains west of Sydney and it doesn't look too much=
 like=20
anything there except on the western side, just some fairly shallow cumulus=
 with=20
virga or showers. Usually I can tell if there's snow in it as the clouds th=
en=20
have a different look altogether..but maybe I've got imaginitis. A fair bit=
 of=20
passing cumulus more generally but nothing above that until you get to prob=
ably=20
35000 feet (cirrostratus). Very large storm clouds 200km or so out to=20
sea.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D3></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D3>Very windy here now with g=
usts up to=20
63km, no doubt stronger nearer the coast. Wind chill down to 4=B0 which is =
pretty=20
low for Sydney.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LE=
FT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>Fro=
m:</B>=20
  <A title=3Dkka...@hotmail.com href=3D"mailto:kka...@hotmail.com">Ken Kato=
</A>=20
  </DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=3Daustpacwx@googlegro=
ups.com=20
  href=3D"mailto:austpacwx@googlegroups.com">Austpacwx</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, July 03, 2009 2:41 P=
M</DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [austpacwx] Re: Winter is=
=20
  here</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>Clyve, just thought you might be interested to know of&nbs=
p;one=20
  of those&nbsp;high thickness/snow scenarios&nbsp;for&nbsp;NE=20
  NSW&nbsp;tonight.&nbsp;I remember you&nbsp;mentioning this in a previous =
post.=20
  Models have the 540 line barely reaching&nbsp;the central NSW tablelands=
=20
  before completely leaving the area by around midnight. This is=20
  despite&nbsp;the categorical precip forecasts suggesting a bit of snow mu=
ch=20
  further north&nbsp;on the NE NSW tablelands right&nbsp;up to around 10am =
next=20
  morning (not to mention &lt; 0C temps at 850hpa reaching up to near the=
=20
  Qld/NSW border also). Forecast soundings&nbsp;for that area&nbsp;appear=
=20
  to&nbsp;suggest the reason for this&nbsp;-&nbsp;a shallow layer of cold m=
oist=20
  air in the lowest&nbsp;1000-2000ft then a really massive inversion/warm a=
ir=20
  above it right up to around 18,000ft. Even though&nbsp;there's&nbsp;prett=
y=20
  cold air down low, this layer looks extremely shallow and not enough to l=
ower=20
  thicknesses below 540.<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;<BR>I also heard an unconfirmed rep=
ort=20
  of snow on the central NSW tablelands this morning even though the 540 li=
ne=20
  barely reaches that area according to LAPS analysis. The above reason mig=
ht=20
  explain this one as well.<BR>&nbsp;<BR>Ken.<BR>&nbsp;<BR>
  <HR id=3DstopSpelling>
  From: mes...@iprimus.com.au<BR>To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com<BR>Subject:=
=20
  [austpacwx] Winter is here<BR>Date: Fri, 3 Jul 2009 12:24:54 +1000<BR><BR=
>
  <STYLE>
</STYLE>

  <DIV><FONT face=3D"MS Sans Serif">Hi all.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=3D"MS Sans Serif">Real&nbsp;winter has arrived in the cen=
tral=20
  ranges Vic....Bright sunshine 50kph souwester 6c and a wind chill of minu=
s=20
  5c....The mean maximum for Trentham is 7c in Jully and the mean Min is=20
  2c...and now for 5 weeks of proper cold....regards Clyve=20
  H</FONT></DIV><BR><BR><BR>
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