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From: "Keith Barnett" <r81n-...@bigpond.net.au>
Date: Fri, 3 Jul 2009 15:00:58 +1000
Local: Fri, Jul 3 2009 3:00 pm
Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Re: Winter is here
I have a partially obstructed view from here of the Blue Mountains west of Sydney and it doesn't look too much like anything there except on the western side, just some fairly shallow cumulus with virga or showers. Usually I can tell if there's snow in it as the clouds then have a different look altogether..but maybe I've got imaginitis. A fair bit of passing cumulus more generally but nothing above that until you get to probably 35000 feet (cirrostratus). Very large storm clouds 200km or so out to sea.
Very windy here now with gusts up to 63km, no doubt stronger nearer the coast. Wind chill down to 4° which is pretty low for Sydney.
Clyve, just thought you might be interested to know of one of those high thickness/snow scenarios for NE NSW tonight. I remember you mentioning this in a previous post. Models have the 540 line barely reaching the central NSW tablelands before completely leaving the area by around midnight. This is despite the categorical precip forecasts suggesting a bit of snow much further north on the NE NSW tablelands right up to around 10am next morning (not to mention < 0C temps at 850hpa reaching up to near the Qld/NSW border also). Forecast soundings for that area appear to suggest the reason for this - a shallow layer of cold moist air in the lowest 1000-2000ft then a really massive inversion/warm air above it right up to around 18,000ft. Even though there's pretty cold air down low, this layer looks extremely shallow and not enough to lower thicknesses below 540.
I also heard an unconfirmed report of snow on the central NSW tablelands this morning even though the 540 line barely reaches that area according to LAPS analysis. The above reason might explain this one as well.
Ken.
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