austpacwx Google Group

Mt Gambier Storms

mawint...@gmail.com (Dry Spot) — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 10:01:57 UT

An interesting and seemingly unpredicable system in Mt Gambier atm,
looks as though the main system will slip below us. ??

Is it a fair comment that blue over the wimmera in a front coming from
the nrth west will turn yellow or red over melbourne and central
ranges?

Cheers

RE: [austpacwx] A Cracker in Keilor!!! Bring it on [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

d.jo...@bom.gov.au (David Jones) — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 03:56:20 UT

Current radar is certainly one of the more impressive I've seen - particularly the large areas of very intense rainfall. Could well see some 100m+ falls by 9am at this rate.

The area between Viewbank south through Scoresby seems to have copped it particularly bad in the recent sequence.

DJ
______________________________ __________

Melbourne Squall Line [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

h.rich...@bom.gov.au (Harald Richter) — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 03:42:37 UT

A squall line / Line Echo Wave Pattern just moved through Melbourne.
The primary threat emanated from a cell on its E end, associated
with a so-called "bookend vortex". I have attached a message I sent
earlier.

Harald

______________________________ __
The eastern bookend vortex cell has prospered (see attachment) with a fair amount

A Cracker in Keilor!!! Bring it on

mawint...@gmail.com (Dry Spot) — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 03:32:49 UT

Hi All,

I haven't worked out how to post photo's directly on here, so will
attach with a reply.

For the first time in ages we had some dark red rain - short lived -
but visibility was down to 15 meters.

96 hours of this I can live with!!

RE: [austpacwx] Rain Potential - West Central Vic and Western Vic [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

d.jo...@bom.gov.au (David Jones) — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 20:16:40 UT

Already some good falls showing up in the gauges... top scores so far are below.

This is an exceptional warm humid system so it's hard not to see some heavy falls developing. This arvo in particularly looks fantastic for wet storms with LI down to near -5 in central Vic and surface Dps into the low 20s. This mornings rain will help things along.

Rain Potential - West Central Vic and Western Vic

sha...@gstormc.com (Shane Ekerbicer) — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 19:48:02 UT

Hi All,

Just browsing through the models this morning and in particular the GFS
Accumulated Precipitation Forecast. I usually ignore this model because
it is fairly unreliable but I cannot ignore it this morning. It shows a
belt of 100-125mm across west central vic (Geelong, Werribee, Laverton,

Weather News - Longer November heatwave 130 years ago

sup...@iinet.net.au (The Mayos) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 04:01:12 UT

Just saw this story on Weatherzone for anyone who is interested in reading it.

[link]

And more news of the Friday storm in this area - I read in todays local paper "The Manly Daily" that some houses in Bayview and Church Point were without power from the time of the storm on Friday until Sunday afternoon due to the huge amount of damage done to the power infrastructure.

Upper low cross-section

kka...@hotmail.com (Ken Kato) — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 02:34:54 UT

For anyone interested, attached are a couple of plots re the mid/upper low due to spin up over the next couple of days. One is a cross-sectional vertical slice of temperatures for 10am Wed morning through the middle of the low from WA to QLD (I used a latitude of 27S to generate this plot). The other is a top-down view of the 500hpa heights (white contours), relative vorticity (shaded) and wind vectors at the 500hpa height (black arrows). Data is from the NCEP ensemble (mean values).

Stormchaser sacrifice....

ausst...@gmail.com (Trentham Stormchasers) — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 12:45:11 UT

Evening all,

We always knew that if we left the state as a sacrifice to the weather gods
Victoria would get flooding rains.....so we bolted on Friday and were
delighted to see the falls you have had since then...

So while we're up here sacrificing ourselves for the good of the state, a
daily report of the weather in the Top End will appear on the link below for

Incredible Temperature Rises on the NSW Coast

sha...@gstormc.com (Shane Ekerbicer) — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 04:58:32 UT

Hi All,

My attention has just been brought to some temperature rises, in
particular Bellambi which rose from 23.6c at 2pm to 37.5c at 2.42pm.
Not sure what the record temperature rising is for Australia, but that
could be close?

An extract from the Weather Station obs:

Date/Time

Inland flooding / more lows

kka...@hotmail.com (Ken Kato) — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 01:02:13 UT

Some impressive totals progged for interior parts near the junctions of the QLD/NSW/SA/NT borders early this week to the E and S of the cutoff low. With >100 to 150mm progged and further falls likely in eastern SA (and elsewhere) later this week, will be interesting to see how much drainage there'll be into Lake Eyre as well as inland flooding.

Pittwater Storm

sup...@iinet.net.au (The Mayos) — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 08:56:03 UT

Hi Everyone
This afternoon, a storm that looked like it was going to be nothing much, brought torrential rain to the Pittwater area and "rather interesting wind". The torrential rain missed our street only giving us 8mm in total.

There was minor flooding in Newport and Avalon, many trees down and even more broken off about 2 - 3 metres from the ground and many houses with roof damage. We got home to find minor damage to some of our bonsai plants and our neighbours TV aerial snapped and hanging by the wires.

Funny article re BoM site

kka...@hotmail.com (Ken Kato) — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 08:51:17 UT

For anyone who hasn't read this news article on the popularity of the bureau's website yet, I found it amusing (but not surprising):

[link]

Ken.

Not very good shots but......

rbusc...@bigpond.net.au (Bussy) — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 08:00:11 UT

I never had any kids on when I took these with my phone. For those who are politically correct. I'm not. Not real good but shows in places the wind and dust etc.

The wind was coming from a Westerly direction of course and I was heading north. Every time I opened the door to let the kids out there was a big influx of leaves and straw and dust, sticks etc. The bus looked grouse inside when I got home. NOT.

Bit hairy

rbusc...@bigpond.net.au (Bussy) — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 06:05:53 UT

Due to the very dense dust I think, I only made it to 36.6 here today. As dusty and windy as now though. The temp has dropped back to 32.7 at present. And a 64kmh gust at 4.45pm. Just when I was coming home on the bus. They're hard work in the gusty wind that's for sure. They're basically just a big kite.

Unseasonably warm here, too!

dajapo2...@yahoo.com (David Powell) — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 05:20:27 UT

Hello Awesome Aussie Friends:
Well, we in Mena have been unseasonably warm as well--just not to the extent of the current Aussie heatwave.
Our average maximum for very rainy & cool month of October was only 64.6F/18.1C (normal October avg. max. is 73F/22.7C).
Through the first 16 days of November (Nov. 1-16) our avg. max. has been an amazing 69.4F/20.7C! (our normal avg. November max. is 60F/15.5C). If we average a max. of 59.2F/15.1C for the rest of November (14 days), November will actually be warmer than October---something which I don't think has happened here before.

November heatwave in historical context - Geelong

g...@pipeline.com.au (Lindsay Smail) — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 03:34:00 UT

Hi all - My summary of Geelong's Nov heatwaves is attached. It is quite safe!

Lindsay Smail
Geelong Weather Services
[link]
Ph: (03) 5241 5332

Gilmore Heat - new records

mrcenterpri...@hotmail.com (Gavin O'Brien) — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 01:55:09 UT

Hi all'
A check of the stats for November makes chilling reading!
Average Daily Max so far in November is 30.4 (Av 22.3)
Average Daily Min is running at 11.8 degrees (Av. 8.6)
Monthly Mean is now at 21.4 (Av.15.5)
All are new records by a large margin for all years of records in South Canberra (1982-2009)

Keilor tops 41 Deg 12.30

mawint...@gmail.com (Dry Spot) — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 01:31:08 UT

Hi All,

Thick layer of upper cloud,no sun shining through and we just hit
41deg. down to 40.9 now and to the south the cloud is getting some
colour in it.

The mighty Maribrynong River in Sping time glory..

mawint...@gmail.com (Dry Spot) — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 09:15:48 UT

Picks due shortly..

I couldn't resist, the foreground is the torrential flow. 3 feet
below average - pre 1995 of course

Last week the cloud - this week one of them mini things makes a return!

rhettbla...@gmail.com (auspacwx Rhett Blanch) — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 22:47:28 UT

[link]

Wind carries sheds to yard of Attunga neighbour

A MINI tornado appears to have swept through an Attunga property on Monday
night.

Attunga St residents Robyn and Allan Drummond woke up yesterday morning to

RE: [austpacwx] Warm night central ranges Vic [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

d.jo...@bom.gov.au (David Jones) — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 20:16:15 UT

Unless the SW change comes through soon Melbourne will demolish the hottest night on record record (for Nov). The old record (3pm to 9am record) is 26.2C from 1901 with the 28.2C the lowest number overnight.

Very lucky that we are going to be in SW winds in central areas today otherwise the 40.9C hottest day record would also fall.

Warm night central ranges Vic

mes...@iprimus.com.au (Clyve Herbert) — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 14:35:07 UT

Hi all......Its 0120 hrs and my temp has just spiked to 23.3c not long after the northerly sprung up....to put that into perspective the mean max for Trentham (700M) in November is 17.4c and the mean min is 6.0c...so the present temp is 6c above the mean max and a whopping 17c above the mean min !....a temp at 0120hrs of 23.3c is 1.3c above the mean maximum for January !!. another interesting 1am temp is Mt William registering 24c at 1154M. Another remarkable temperature at 1am is Mildura with 38.2c I think that's about 100F...I dont think that occurs to often even at that location this time of night and no matter what time of the year.......OK we get the message....now lets get back to some normal weather !...regards Clyve H

(Off topic) a walk with an ecologist in melbournes dry spot (brimbank Park)

mawint...@gmail.com (Dry Spot) — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 12:42:13 UT

Hi all,

With all these record being broken, I'd like to share some of our
observations today. Location of critcally endangered frogs,
blackberrys are dying, native grass turning to dust in parts caused by
hungry rabbits and proof that in periods of low rain the best way to
control Serrated Tussock is by planting a gum tree.

US Records 3rd Coolest & Wettest October on record:

dajapo2...@yahoo.com (David Powell) — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 07:31:21 UT

Hello Wonderful Friends:

Well, the US recorded their 3rd Coolest & Wettest October on record, story here:
[link]
Maps are clickable (click on High Resolution).

Quite a change here: we hit a cloudy but warm 71F/21.6C for a high on Sunday; overnight a Pacific cold front rolled through (all up I copped 1.50"/38mm rain, first rain here in the month), and yesterday (Mon.) the daytime temperatures started in the upper-40sF/~8C and slowly fell throughout the day (it's 40F/4C now at 1:30AM Tuesday)....BRRRRR.....

El Nino SA heat

mes...@iprimus.com.au (Clyve Herbert) — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 23:37:45 UT

Hi all.
It hasn't taken the media long to blame the present heat wave over SA and southeast Aus on El Nino, I am surprised by a comment from the SA BOM that this heat wave has been caused by El Nino (Report from Sky News). I would suggest it is too early for such a statement. Looking at historical records (over 140 years) there is an interesting and re-occurring negative spike in the data during October (this years Oct -14), I would put this down to short term synoptic bias. A look at the SOI archive data in October is interesting with a tendency for the period Sep to Nov often showing a negative peak. The period from 1878 to 2009 exhibits 27 Octobers showing a spike into the negative then followed by a significant rise. True El Nino data returns exhibit a different pattern with a firm negative bias often starting in winter and persisting through summer. To put the balance right one could also say that the present heat wave is associated with El Nino and also the record flooding over the past several weeks over QLD southeast and northeast NSW was also associated with the El Nino !!!!....Sorry for ranting but I dont like media beef-ups. On another note concerning the present hot spell and careful look at the broadscale pattern a shift (temporal) in the long waves occurred about 3 weeks ago with a long wave positioning west of WA and another over the Coral sea and its western (cold) fringe over eastern Aus. A quasi stationary long wave ridge build over central AUS to SA and Vic. The positioning of the long wave ridge across these parts of Australia formed the basis of a very warm air field and the result is a record hot spell, there was a similar set-up in August when Queensland experienced a record hot spell.....The present pattern is breaking down and the WA long wave is moving east....best regards Clyve Herbert

RE: [austpacwx] Upcoming southern Oz heatwave [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

d.jo...@bom.gov.au (David Jones) — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 20:17:29 UT

Is going to be a savage (possibly record breaking) burst of heat Wednesday into Thursday in the southeast. Official forecast has 42/43C at Mildura Wed/Thur and 43 at Swan Hill on Thur. A tad cooler in the south (850Ts nearer 20C rather than the mid/high 20s that pass across NSW and southern Vic), and enough easterly and cloud to (probably) keep things below 40C.

RE: 1% Humidity at Coober Pedy [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

b.tre...@bom.gov.au (Blair Trewin) — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 11:31:06 UT

Not sure I'd call it "extraordinary" - this happens somewhere in central Australia a few times a year, most often in spring.

Blair
______________________________ __________
Sent: Saturday, 14 November 2009 10:11 PM
To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com

Hi all, interesting conditions at Coober Pedy today. Only 1% humidty between 5 – 8pm. Quite extraordinary.

1% Humidity at Coober Pedy

shan...@netspace.net.au (Shane Williams) — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 11:11:53 UT

Hi all, interesting conditions at Coober Pedy today. Only 1% humidty
between 5 8pm. Quite extraordinary.

Regards Shane.

Upcoming major low (SE Oz)

kka...@hotmail.com (Ken Kato) — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 10:02:53 UT

Some early but interesting signs of major amplification of a mid level trough over SE Oz later in the week and the week after... with vigorous cyclogenesis/frontal activity, decent winds and some rain which hopefully extends through inland parts also. Hopefully it eventuates so it gives temporary relief for the heatwave sufferers.

Cool conditions in Northern Queensland.

shan...@netspace.net.au (Shane Williams) — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 03:03:19 UT

Hi all, been noticing the cooler than average night time temps
lately. For this time the year you'd expect humid days however this
year seems to cooler than the usual.

Little rain of late, just enough to green the grass.

Shane Williams
Townsville, North Queensland.

Arizona warmth

richkoivi...@yahoo.com (Rich Koivisto) — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 16:51:49 UT

Hi everyone ! Sorry I haven't been able to get on-line sooner. Have been real busy setting up housekeeping-getting things re-arranged the way we like it. The 2000 mile trip late last Month went quite well except for steady rain thru Southern Minnesota, Iowa and Nebraska, and then snow in Eastern Colorado the following day. We found Summer on the 3rd day when we left Flagstaff's elevation down into the Colorado River Valley. 80'sF and Sunny with some Cirrus making for some beautiful Sunsets. Otherwise, no significant weather to speak of but SUNSHINE!!!!! Haven't downloaded pics yet but will get some out soon.

Bussies anvil

mes...@iprimus.com.au (Clyve Herbert) — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:18:19 UT

Hi Bussy.
Thats the leading edge of the bloody great big pulse storm east of Shep that I photographed this evening, from north of Bendigo, its main updraft was on the western side, you had the anvil outflow.....regards Clyve H

Question about average rain in El Nino

mawint...@gmail.com (Dry Spot) — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 10:36:52 UT

Hi All,

while i was doing my growling grass frog survey early this morning,
and looking at all time low levels of the maribrynong river for
November, I was thinking back to my 260mm Aug in Coomoora and wishing
it had of hit Macedon.

Thank you to everyone who has explained the weird winter and spring

Whats this mean?

rbusc...@bigpond.net.au (Bussy) — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 09:10:36 UT

Is this the back end of a decaying storm?

I have reduced the pics as small as I can so as not to re-offend anyone.

Always wondered.

Bussy

RE: [austpacwx] Cumulonimbuspatheticus ! [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

d.jo...@bom.gov.au (David Jones) — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 07:01:34 UT

Just an astonishing heatwave this one. If the current forecast is correct Melbourne will have it's longest run of 30C days in a row (and in the first half of November... for crying out loud!). Large swathe will set similar records.

By the time this event is over I suspect it will sit alongside Mar 2008, Feb 2009, Aug 2009 as one of the most extreme heatwave events in Australia's history (when taking seasonality into account).

Small. But...

rbusc...@bigpond.net.au (Bussy) — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 06:42:48 UT

A few small reds appearing on the radar just NE of Deniliquin at present.

Not too much happening here other than its a spot on forecast (toasty) 37.0 at present.

Bussy

Cumulonimbuspatheticus !

mes...@iprimus.com.au (Clyve Herbert) — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 05:33:36 UT

Hi all.....A couple of pathetic cumulonimbus developments up on the central ranges Vic this afternoon would call them 'pencil' CB's.....Appears to be unstable between 700 and 500hpa a couple of brief congestus that disappeared in 2 minutes. However some better activity building north of Daylesford at 1625......better than nothing...regards Clyve H

New Max Temp records at Gilmore for the first ten days of November - the heat continues....

mrcenterpri...@hotmail.com (Gavin O'Brien) — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 04:04:04 UT

Hi all,
I have had a look at our Temperatures here since 1991(Have not looked back to 1981 yet) and I see we are running up a record number of new Max records for the start of November.The Min /Max and Mean so far are all at new levels too although a cool spell sometime in the month may bring them down again.

Re purchase of Weather Station.

mrcenterpri...@hotmail.com (Gavin O'Brien) — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 11:47:30 UT

Attention Jane O'Neill,

Hi Jane,
Not sure if my email from your web site was sent on so resending from my email address.
I am now in a postion to purchase a new Weather Station. I am keen on Davis with the following proviso. I have a Thermometer Screen so would ideally like the Thermometer sensors in the Screen or next to it. My Anemometers are located on a 6 metre Mast based on the back veranda roof about 4 metres above ground level. I would like to co-locate the anemometer sensor on the Mast so it is not affected by trees etc. I also want to download to my PC.

Link about US Hurricanes:

dajapo2...@yahoo.com (David Powell) — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 07:06:45 UT

Hey Aussie Friends:
Well, Hurricane Ida--a rare November Hurricane--looks soon to strike to Gulf Coast, near the Alabama/Florida border. Question comes up as to if there have been any other November Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico: I've found a link with US States that have been impacted by Hurricanes, their dates and strength; Please see:

The best place to put a temp sensor

mawint...@gmail.com (Dry Spot) — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 04:07:07 UT

Hi All,

A quick question, Melb airports recording 35 deg, and my little sensor
in a shady cool place is sayig 38.7. It is fastened to a wooden post
on out covered balcony. shaded by a tree and an open gabbled roof.

is there a better place i could put it?

Thanks

Hurricane Ida

kka...@hotmail.com (Ken Kato) — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 03:35:39 UT

For anyone interested, Jeff Masters has put up a good rundown on Hurricane Ida that's currently headed towards the US Gulf Coast. Of note is the possible storm surge hazard (as shown by NOAA's storm surge modelling on the page), heavy rains and the chance of the ubiquitous hurricane-associated tornadoes... but only if increasing shear and cooler waters don't weaken it too much:

Digital Television Channel 7 number 2

mawint...@gmail.com (Dry Spot) — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 02:39:25 UT

Hi All,

For those of us that have digital television, tune into channel 72
tonight at 8.30.

There is a Cameron Datto flick called Category seven.

The shorts note tracey at cat 4 and Katrina cat 5..

Should be an awesome laugh.

Cheers

it's back

hambone_ro...@internode.on.net (Richard Modistach) — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 02:20:18 UT

hi all,

yesterday i went out fishing, was about 12k offshore, dead calm millpond
conditions,
water was like something you see in the bahamas or similar, crystal clear,
you could easily see the bottom and all the fish in 4m water, it was like
looking over the side of the boat into a swimming pool, was having a

Weird El Nino

mawint...@gmail.com (Dry Spot) — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 11:52:26 UT

Hi All,

I'm wondering is someone could explain this weird el nino in simple
terms?

Someone somewhere else said the other day that the warming in
America's was normal El Nino; but it was still normal current here?

Please explain....

Cheers

RE: [austpacwx] Rain northern NSW ! [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

b.tre...@bom.gov.au (Blair Trewin) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 10:59:50 UT

Good to see the rain falling where it's really needed :-).

Don't have the numbers handy, but some of the sites in this region must be getting within striking distance of 3000mm for the year.

Blair
______________________________ __________
Sent: Friday, 6 November 2009 9:46 PM
To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com

Rain northern NSW !

mes...@iprimus.com.au (Clyve Herbert) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 10:31:28 UT

Hi all.
Some whopping rainfall totals around the Coffs Harbour district this evening.....227mm since 0900 and near 120mm between 2000 and 2100, added to this total 99mm fell to 0900...thats 312mm today.....and I was happy with 10mm on the weekend from a storm....!!!,, regards Clyve H Trentham Vic

Fw: Spring Bloom in New Zealand Waters

sup...@iinet.net.au (The Mayos) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 19:54:05 UT

Spring Bloom in New Zealand WatersHello Everyone
This is interesting. Such minute organisms can help the balance of our atmosphere.

Judy
----- Original Message -----
To: sup...@iinet.net.au
Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 2:14 AM

Spring Bloom in New Zealand Waters
Wed, 04 Nov 2009 23:00:00 -0600

Storms SE QLD

mes...@iprimus.com.au (Clyve Herbert) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 10:57:30 UT

Hi all.
Some big slow moving storms over southeast QLD this evening would not be surprised to see the odd fall near 100mm+ before its all finished, the cells are slow moving and appear to spring up along outflow boundaries, a couple also appear quasi stationary....Clyve H