austpacwx Google Group

November weather summary (or summery?) for Geelong

2009-11-30T06:18:08Z

November, 2009

RAINFALL
Geelong received well above average rainfall with 75-130 mm falling across the urban area and 90.4 at Geelong Airport. (November average is 51 mm.) Totals varied from 75 mm at Lara to 130 mm at Hamlyn Heights. It has been the wettest month of the year. The western Otways were generally below average because much of the rain originated from systems moving from the north and northwest, but the eastern Otways including the main catchments (eg, West Barwon dam 118 mm) received above average falls. Spring rainfall totals for urban Geelong were around 187 mm. (The average is 151 mm).

Nows the time

2009-11-30T03:07:19Z

Now's the time to buy some weather stuff from the Americans. I've always loved my little strike alert (lightning detector) and not long ago broke it. The cheapest I could see was roughly around the $240 mark (plus postage) here in Australia.

I noticed the Dollar was pretty well up there with the American one so had a look and would you believe this? $64.00 plus $20.00 delivery. Took 10 days to get here. $84.00 Aussie dollars and that's it. 1/3rd of the price.

Surprise rainfall

2009-11-30T02:58:00Z

We've had a few close strikes here since about 11.45am with very steady rainfall. I've had 2mm so far which has really surprised me.

I thought it was pretty well all gone for now. The sky was clearing this morning and then this just crept up on us :-)

The farmer who's kids I pick up will reckon I'm a dill (bigger than usual) coz when he asked I said that I reckon its all gone. Whoops...... Grin.

talk SOI to me.. LOL

2009-11-29T12:03:53Z

Hi All,

Well while its too cold and ceratinly too wet to check the guage, I
reckon for the first time since 1967, Keilors cracked a hundy!!

The rare glistening salt bush have grown a foot this month, and a
reckon will be quite a site in the morning with the amount of rain.
Been that funny drizzle for a while, and is pelting down atm.

RE: [austpacwx] Finally [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2009-11-28T23:57:17Z

After a slow slow start has turned into a good month for much of Victoria and SA ([link]). Now had (about) 120mm in the last 8 days in Ferny Creek and ~70mm at Sandy Point (our shack on the coast). The Ferny Creek total puts the month about 10mm above average while Sandy is about 10mm below.

Finally

2009-11-28T23:49:47Z

I have finally tipped over the 300mm mark this morning. 60mm so far for the month. My average is 47 for November.

18.2mm since midnight so far. Even had a few pools in the low spots of the backyard. Although they disappear quickly when the rain stops. Still some brief heavy showers about at present.

Mt Gambier Storms

2009-11-27T10:01:57Z

An interesting and seemingly unpredicable system in Mt Gambier atm,
looks as though the main system will slip below us. ??

Is it a fair comment that blue over the wimmera in a front coming from
the nrth west will turn yellow or red over melbourne and central
ranges?

Cheers

RE: [austpacwx] A Cracker in Keilor!!! Bring it on [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2009-11-26T03:56:20Z

Current radar is certainly one of the more impressive I've seen - particularly the large areas of very intense rainfall. Could well see some 100m+ falls by 9am at this rate.

The area between Viewbank south through Scoresby seems to have copped it particularly bad in the recent sequence.

DJ
______________________________ __________

Melbourne Squall Line [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2009-11-26T03:42:37Z

A squall line / Line Echo Wave Pattern just moved through Melbourne.
The primary threat emanated from a cell on its E end, associated
with a so-called "bookend vortex". I have attached a message I sent
earlier.

Harald

______________________________ __
The eastern bookend vortex cell has prospered (see attachment) with a fair amount

A Cracker in Keilor!!! Bring it on

2009-11-26T03:32:49Z

Hi All,

I haven't worked out how to post photo's directly on here, so will
attach with a reply.

For the first time in ages we had some dark red rain - short lived -
but visibility was down to 15 meters.

96 hours of this I can live with!!

RE: [austpacwx] Rain Potential - West Central Vic and Western Vic [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2009-11-25T20:16:40Z

Already some good falls showing up in the gauges... top scores so far are below.

This is an exceptional warm humid system so it's hard not to see some heavy falls developing. This arvo in particularly looks fantastic for wet storms with LI down to near -5 in central Vic and surface Dps into the low 20s. This mornings rain will help things along.

Rain Potential - West Central Vic and Western Vic

2009-11-25T19:48:02Z

Hi All,

Just browsing through the models this morning and in particular the GFS
Accumulated Precipitation Forecast. I usually ignore this model because
it is fairly unreliable but I cannot ignore it this morning. It shows a
belt of 100-125mm across west central vic (Geelong, Werribee, Laverton,

Weather News - Longer November heatwave 130 years ago

2009-11-24T04:01:12Z

Just saw this story on Weatherzone for anyone who is interested in reading it.

[link]

And more news of the Friday storm in this area - I read in todays local paper "The Manly Daily" that some houses in Bayview and Church Point were without power from the time of the storm on Friday until Sunday afternoon due to the huge amount of damage done to the power infrastructure.

Upper low cross-section

2009-11-23T02:34:54Z

For anyone interested, attached are a couple of plots re the mid/upper low due to spin up over the next couple of days. One is a cross-sectional vertical slice of temperatures for 10am Wed morning through the middle of the low from WA to QLD (I used a latitude of 27S to generate this plot). The other is a top-down view of the 500hpa heights (white contours), relative vorticity (shaded) and wind vectors at the 500hpa height (black arrows). Data is from the NCEP ensemble (mean values).

Stormchaser sacrifice....

2009-11-22T12:45:11Z

Evening all,

We always knew that if we left the state as a sacrifice to the weather gods
Victoria would get flooding rains.....so we bolted on Friday and were
delighted to see the falls you have had since then...

So while we're up here sacrificing ourselves for the good of the state, a
daily report of the weather in the Top End will appear on the link below for

Incredible Temperature Rises on the NSW Coast

2009-11-22T04:58:32Z

Hi All,

My attention has just been brought to some temperature rises, in
particular Bellambi which rose from 23.6c at 2pm to 37.5c at 2.42pm.
Not sure what the record temperature rising is for Australia, but that
could be close?

An extract from the Weather Station obs:

Date/Time

Inland flooding / more lows

2009-11-22T01:02:13Z

Some impressive totals progged for interior parts near the junctions of the QLD/NSW/SA/NT borders early this week to the E and S of the cutoff low. With >100 to 150mm progged and further falls likely in eastern SA (and elsewhere) later this week, will be interesting to see how much drainage there'll be into Lake Eyre as well as inland flooding.

Pittwater Storm

2009-11-20T08:56:03Z

Hi Everyone
This afternoon, a storm that looked like it was going to be nothing much, brought torrential rain to the Pittwater area and "rather interesting wind". The torrential rain missed our street only giving us 8mm in total.

There was minor flooding in Newport and Avalon, many trees down and even more broken off about 2 - 3 metres from the ground and many houses with roof damage. We got home to find minor damage to some of our bonsai plants and our neighbours TV aerial snapped and hanging by the wires.

Funny article re BoM site

2009-11-20T08:51:17Z

For anyone who hasn't read this news article on the popularity of the bureau's website yet, I found it amusing (but not surprising):

[link]

Ken.

Not very good shots but......

2009-11-20T08:00:11Z

I never had any kids on when I took these with my phone. For those who are politically correct. I'm not. Not real good but shows in places the wind and dust etc.

The wind was coming from a Westerly direction of course and I was heading north. Every time I opened the door to let the kids out there was a big influx of leaves and straw and dust, sticks etc. The bus looked grouse inside when I got home. NOT.

Bit hairy

2009-11-20T06:05:53Z

Due to the very dense dust I think, I only made it to 36.6 here today. As dusty and windy as now though. The temp has dropped back to 32.7 at present. And a 64kmh gust at 4.45pm. Just when I was coming home on the bus. They're hard work in the gusty wind that's for sure. They're basically just a big kite.

Unseasonably warm here, too!

2009-11-20T05:20:27Z

Hello Awesome Aussie Friends:
Well, we in Mena have been unseasonably warm as well--just not to the extent of the current Aussie heatwave.
Our average maximum for very rainy & cool month of October was only 64.6F/18.1C (normal October avg. max. is 73F/22.7C).
Through the first 16 days of November (Nov. 1-16) our avg. max. has been an amazing 69.4F/20.7C! (our normal avg. November max. is 60F/15.5C). If we average a max. of 59.2F/15.1C for the rest of November (14 days), November will actually be warmer than October---something which I don't think has happened here before.

November heatwave in historical context - Geelong

2009-11-20T03:34:00Z

Hi all - My summary of Geelong's Nov heatwaves is attached. It is quite safe!

Lindsay Smail
Geelong Weather Services
[link]
Ph: (03) 5241 5332

Gilmore Heat - new records

2009-11-20T01:55:09Z

Hi all'
A check of the stats for November makes chilling reading!
Average Daily Max so far in November is 30.4 (Av 22.3)
Average Daily Min is running at 11.8 degrees (Av. 8.6)
Monthly Mean is now at 21.4 (Av.15.5)
All are new records by a large margin for all years of records in South Canberra (1982-2009)

Keilor tops 41 Deg 12.30

2009-11-20T01:31:08Z

Hi All,

Thick layer of upper cloud,no sun shining through and we just hit
41deg. down to 40.9 now and to the south the cloud is getting some
colour in it.

The mighty Maribrynong River in Sping time glory..

2009-11-19T09:15:48Z

Picks due shortly..

I couldn't resist, the foreground is the torrential flow. 3 feet
below average - pre 1995 of course

Last week the cloud - this week one of them mini things makes a return!

2009-11-18T22:47:28Z

[link]

Wind carries sheds to yard of Attunga neighbour

A MINI tornado appears to have swept through an Attunga property on Monday
night.

Attunga St residents Robyn and Allan Drummond woke up yesterday morning to

RE: [austpacwx] Warm night central ranges Vic [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2009-11-18T20:16:15Z

Unless the SW change comes through soon Melbourne will demolish the hottest night on record record (for Nov). The old record (3pm to 9am record) is 26.2C from 1901 with the 28.2C the lowest number overnight.

Very lucky that we are going to be in SW winds in central areas today otherwise the 40.9C hottest day record would also fall.

Warm night central ranges Vic

2009-11-18T14:35:07Z

Hi all......Its 0120 hrs and my temp has just spiked to 23.3c not long after the northerly sprung up....to put that into perspective the mean max for Trentham (700M) in November is 17.4c and the mean min is 6.0c...so the present temp is 6c above the mean max and a whopping 17c above the mean min !....a temp at 0120hrs of 23.3c is 1.3c above the mean maximum for January !!. another interesting 1am temp is Mt William registering 24c at 1154M. Another remarkable temperature at 1am is Mildura with 38.2c I think that's about 100F...I dont think that occurs to often even at that location this time of night and no matter what time of the year.......OK we get the message....now lets get back to some normal weather !...regards Clyve H

(Off topic) a walk with an ecologist in melbournes dry spot (brimbank Park)

2009-11-18T12:42:13Z

Hi all,

With all these record being broken, I'd like to share some of our
observations today. Location of critcally endangered frogs,
blackberrys are dying, native grass turning to dust in parts caused by
hungry rabbits and proof that in periods of low rain the best way to
control Serrated Tussock is by planting a gum tree.

US Records 3rd Coolest & Wettest October on record:

2009-11-17T07:31:21Z

Hello Wonderful Friends:

Well, the US recorded their 3rd Coolest & Wettest October on record, story here:
[link]
Maps are clickable (click on High Resolution).

Quite a change here: we hit a cloudy but warm 71F/21.6C for a high on Sunday; overnight a Pacific cold front rolled through (all up I copped 1.50"/38mm rain, first rain here in the month), and yesterday (Mon.) the daytime temperatures started in the upper-40sF/~8C and slowly fell throughout the day (it's 40F/4C now at 1:30AM Tuesday)....BRRRRR.....

El Nino SA heat

2009-11-15T23:37:45Z

Hi all.
It hasn't taken the media long to blame the present heat wave over SA and southeast Aus on El Nino, I am surprised by a comment from the SA BOM that this heat wave has been caused by El Nino (Report from Sky News). I would suggest it is too early for such a statement. Looking at historical records (over 140 years) there is an interesting and re-occurring negative spike in the data during October (this years Oct -14), I would put this down to short term synoptic bias. A look at the SOI archive data in October is interesting with a tendency for the period Sep to Nov often showing a negative peak. The period from 1878 to 2009 exhibits 27 Octobers showing a spike into the negative then followed by a significant rise. True El Nino data returns exhibit a different pattern with a firm negative bias often starting in winter and persisting through summer. To put the balance right one could also say that the present heat wave is associated with El Nino and also the record flooding over the past several weeks over QLD southeast and northeast NSW was also associated with the El Nino !!!!....Sorry for ranting but I dont like media beef-ups. On another note concerning the present hot spell and careful look at the broadscale pattern a shift (temporal) in the long waves occurred about 3 weeks ago with a long wave positioning west of WA and another over the Coral sea and its western (cold) fringe over eastern Aus. A quasi stationary long wave ridge build over central AUS to SA and Vic. The positioning of the long wave ridge across these parts of Australia formed the basis of a very warm air field and the result is a record hot spell, there was a similar set-up in August when Queensland experienced a record hot spell.....The present pattern is breaking down and the WA long wave is moving east....best regards Clyve Herbert

RE: [austpacwx] Upcoming southern Oz heatwave [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2009-11-15T20:17:29Z

Is going to be a savage (possibly record breaking) burst of heat Wednesday into Thursday in the southeast. Official forecast has 42/43C at Mildura Wed/Thur and 43 at Swan Hill on Thur. A tad cooler in the south (850Ts nearer 20C rather than the mid/high 20s that pass across NSW and southern Vic), and enough easterly and cloud to (probably) keep things below 40C.

RE: 1% Humidity at Coober Pedy [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2009-11-14T11:31:06Z

Not sure I'd call it "extraordinary" - this happens somewhere in central Australia a few times a year, most often in spring.

Blair
______________________________ __________
Sent: Saturday, 14 November 2009 10:11 PM
To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com

Hi all, interesting conditions at Coober Pedy today. Only 1% humidty between 5 – 8pm. Quite extraordinary.

1% Humidity at Coober Pedy

2009-11-14T11:11:53Z

Hi all, interesting conditions at Coober Pedy today. Only 1% humidty
between 5 8pm. Quite extraordinary.

Regards Shane.

Upcoming major low (SE Oz)

2009-11-14T10:02:53Z

Some early but interesting signs of major amplification of a mid level trough over SE Oz later in the week and the week after... with vigorous cyclogenesis/frontal activity, decent winds and some rain which hopefully extends through inland parts also. Hopefully it eventuates so it gives temporary relief for the heatwave sufferers.

Cool conditions in Northern Queensland.

2009-11-13T03:03:19Z

Hi all, been noticing the cooler than average night time temps
lately. For this time the year you'd expect humid days however this
year seems to cooler than the usual.

Little rain of late, just enough to green the grass.

Shane Williams
Townsville, North Queensland.

Arizona warmth

2009-11-11T16:51:49Z

Hi everyone ! Sorry I haven't been able to get on-line sooner. Have been real busy setting up housekeeping-getting things re-arranged the way we like it. The 2000 mile trip late last Month went quite well except for steady rain thru Southern Minnesota, Iowa and Nebraska, and then snow in Eastern Colorado the following day. We found Summer on the 3rd day when we left Flagstaff's elevation down into the Colorado River Valley. 80'sF and Sunny with some Cirrus making for some beautiful Sunsets. Otherwise, no significant weather to speak of but SUNSHINE!!!!! Haven't downloaded pics yet but will get some out soon.

Bussies anvil

2009-11-11T12:18:19Z

Hi Bussy.
Thats the leading edge of the bloody great big pulse storm east of Shep that I photographed this evening, from north of Bendigo, its main updraft was on the western side, you had the anvil outflow.....regards Clyve H

Question about average rain in El Nino

2009-11-11T10:36:52Z

Hi All,

while i was doing my growling grass frog survey early this morning,
and looking at all time low levels of the maribrynong river for
November, I was thinking back to my 260mm Aug in Coomoora and wishing
it had of hit Macedon.

Thank you to everyone who has explained the weird winter and spring

Whats this mean?

2009-11-11T09:10:36Z

Is this the back end of a decaying storm?

I have reduced the pics as small as I can so as not to re-offend anyone.

Always wondered.

Bussy

RE: [austpacwx] Cumulonimbuspatheticus ! [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2009-11-11T07:01:34Z

Just an astonishing heatwave this one. If the current forecast is correct Melbourne will have it's longest run of 30C days in a row (and in the first half of November... for crying out loud!). Large swathe will set similar records.

By the time this event is over I suspect it will sit alongside Mar 2008, Feb 2009, Aug 2009 as one of the most extreme heatwave events in Australia's history (when taking seasonality into account).

Small. But...

2009-11-11T06:42:48Z

A few small reds appearing on the radar just NE of Deniliquin at present.

Not too much happening here other than its a spot on forecast (toasty) 37.0 at present.

Bussy

Cumulonimbuspatheticus !

2009-11-11T05:33:36Z

Hi all.....A couple of pathetic cumulonimbus developments up on the central ranges Vic this afternoon would call them 'pencil' CB's.....Appears to be unstable between 700 and 500hpa a couple of brief congestus that disappeared in 2 minutes. However some better activity building north of Daylesford at 1625......better than nothing...regards Clyve H

New Max Temp records at Gilmore for the first ten days of November - the heat continues....

2009-11-11T04:04:04Z

Hi all,
I have had a look at our Temperatures here since 1991(Have not looked back to 1981 yet) and I see we are running up a record number of new Max records for the start of November.The Min /Max and Mean so far are all at new levels too although a cool spell sometime in the month may bring them down again.

Re purchase of Weather Station.

2009-11-10T11:47:30Z

Attention Jane O'Neill,

Hi Jane,
Not sure if my email from your web site was sent on so resending from my email address.
I am now in a postion to purchase a new Weather Station. I am keen on Davis with the following proviso. I have a Thermometer Screen so would ideally like the Thermometer sensors in the Screen or next to it. My Anemometers are located on a 6 metre Mast based on the back veranda roof about 4 metres above ground level. I would like to co-locate the anemometer sensor on the Mast so it is not affected by trees etc. I also want to download to my PC.

Link about US Hurricanes:

2009-11-10T07:06:45Z

Hey Aussie Friends:
Well, Hurricane Ida--a rare November Hurricane--looks soon to strike to Gulf Coast, near the Alabama/Florida border. Question comes up as to if there have been any other November Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico: I've found a link with US States that have been impacted by Hurricanes, their dates and strength; Please see:

The best place to put a temp sensor

2009-11-10T04:07:07Z

Hi All,

A quick question, Melb airports recording 35 deg, and my little sensor
in a shady cool place is sayig 38.7. It is fastened to a wooden post
on out covered balcony. shaded by a tree and an open gabbled roof.

is there a better place i could put it?

Thanks

Hurricane Ida

2009-11-09T03:35:39Z

For anyone interested, Jeff Masters has put up a good rundown on Hurricane Ida that's currently headed towards the US Gulf Coast. Of note is the possible storm surge hazard (as shown by NOAA's storm surge modelling on the page), heavy rains and the chance of the ubiquitous hurricane-associated tornadoes... but only if increasing shear and cooler waters don't weaken it too much:

Digital Television Channel 7 number 2

2009-11-09T02:39:25Z

Hi All,

For those of us that have digital television, tune into channel 72
tonight at 8.30.

There is a Cameron Datto flick called Category seven.

The shorts note tracey at cat 4 and Katrina cat 5..

Should be an awesome laugh.

Cheers