austpacwx Google Group

RE: [austpacwx] David Jones/Blair... is this odd? [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2009-11-04T07:39:49Z

I think the answer is that it depends. Over the oceans there will tend to be a bigger lag than over land (owing to the greater thermal mass). That said the 11 solar cycle has only a tiny affect on global temperature (less the 0.1C). What is more important is the long term secular trend which has (by current estimates) cooled the planet by about 0.2C since 1950 (while at the same time the enhanced greenhouse effect has warmed the plant by something approaching 1C).

RE: [austpacwx] David Jones/Blair... is this odd? [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2009-11-04T07:25:47Z

All models which the Bureau uses (including the Bureau's POAMA model) for the prediction of El Nino are dynamically base. Statistical models have somewhat limited utility in this regard - essentially they are great and 1) predicting an El Nino/La Nina will continue (once established) through winter/spring and break-down the following summer (we know from history that this sequence almost always happens so you don't even need a model!). They are not much use for the more important issue of if an event will develop, or much good for predicting how strong an event might be.

RE: [austpacwx] David Jones/Blair... is this odd? [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2009-11-04T01:25:18Z

Hi Clyve,

Most of the dynamic models I saw in the lead-up to winter did predict the warm SST anomalies in the western Pacific for winter-spring (and even warmer central/eastern Pacific leading to the unusual El Nino setup from late winter). See attached examples from UK and EC for this period.

Re: [austpacwx] David Jones/Blair... is this odd? [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2009-11-03T23:49:59Z

Hi all.
The present set-up of 'warm anomalies across the Pacific was not part of the winter spring outlook issued in May or there-about. The models more or less failed to predict the unusual 'general warming' of the Pacific and thus a long period of neutral El Nino activity between May and Sept 09. I would be rather sceptical of this grand warming prediction and suspect a marked 'backing off' over the next several months. It would be crucial to site previous 'general warming' of the Pacific and apply to the models and study historical occurrences of a more uniform warming in the past especially when it comes to climate predicting...regards Clyve H

RE: [austpacwx] David Jones/Blair... is this odd? [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2009-11-03T23:43:56Z

The 1997-98 El Nino saw a particularly striking temperature signal in many tropical areas, although November-January is a little early for this. A couple of years back I was involved in a study of extreme high temperatures in south-east Asia and 1998 (especially March and April) dominated to a huge extent in many locations.

RE: [austpacwx] David Jones/Blair... is this odd? [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2009-11-03T23:30:43Z

These are the same 2 things that passed through my mind when I saw the outputs i.e. greenhouse effect lifting most of the forecast temps above the model's base climo mean, and the warm waters both in and outside the Nino regions.... although wasn't sure about either, especially the latter i.e. direct result of the unusual SST patterns or the unusual El Nino perturbing the model's initial conditions and somehow making it produce equally unusual warming. Will be interesting to see if there'll be a noticeable effect on future anomalies when the model's base climo period is updated to extend beyond 2000. In any case, I'm sure this is the first time I've seen progged warming on such a big scale for these particular models.

RE: [austpacwx] David Jones/Blair... is this odd? [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2009-11-03T20:04:47Z

There are two explanations for this (which are intertwined). The first is this climate model includes greenhouse gases in its seasonal forecasts, and every year that goes by this introduces a warming of (about) 0.015C. Over the climatology period of this model it now means that regardless of the status of El Nino/La Nina you have an expectation that anomalies will be significantly positive.

David Jones/Blair... is this odd?

2009-11-03T14:32:59Z

Hi David and/or Blair,

I noticed something that really caught my eye before. EC's forecast for NDJ has very high probabilities of warm 2m temp anomalies over almost all the tropics/subtropics of the planet. The example I looked at is attached. So I decided to check some more and found this was also reflected in the upper 1/3rd of the prob distribution as well as the highest 20% of the distribution (huge expanse of warm temps). This continues out to all lead times and seems to even spread with time.

Re: Upcoming southern Oz heatwave

2009-11-03T11:43:01Z

It's interesting to see the US GFS model suggesting 20c - 22c @ 850hpa
for much of the coastline along the western half of Aus on Tuesday
10th Nov.
Even the Bom GASP model has 850hpa temps @ 22c-24c through the bight
region/coastline for that day.
I guess that our saviour in southern Vic ATM would be the fact that we

Upcoming southern Oz heatwave

2009-11-03T09:49:23Z

The prospect of a persistent strong heatwave for southern states next week looks interesting. Current progs suggest max's near or in the 40's in NW Vic and southern inland SA... mid 30's in southern Vic. These are around 5C above Nov decile 9 max temps... but things could obviously change between now and then (and I hope for the southerners' sakes, it does).

RE: [austpacwx] Re: Political weather catastrophes [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2009-11-03T09:14:35Z

Hi David,

Another question; what caused the planet to cool after the mentioned
event?

Sent: Tuesday, 3 November 2009 7:25 PM
To: Austpacwx
[SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

All I can say is, I hope they finally make some good decisions in Copenhagen
in December.

Ken.

RE: [austpacwx] Re: Political weather catastrophes [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2009-11-03T08:25:11Z

All I can say is, I hope they finally make some good decisions in Copenhagen in December.

Ken.

Re: [austpacwx] Re: Storms SW Vic

2009-11-03T04:51:21Z

Thanks Tony & Shane - I may be able to do some follow-up in the area.
Lindsay.

----- Original Message -----
To: "austpacwx" <austpacwx@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, November 03, 2009 2:44 PM

The cell SE of your location Shane, is definately the storm i am
speaking of. The hook is harder to destinguish on the 256km radar

Re: Storms SW Vic

2009-11-03T03:44:41Z

The cell SE of your location Shane, is definately the storm i am
speaking of. The hook is harder to destinguish on the 256km radar
image but as it came into the 128km range it was clearly visible.
Also comparing the cell tracking to the whereabouts of Carlisle river
on mapping i believe that it would have impacted within that location

Re: [austpacwx] Re: Storms SW Vic

2009-11-03T02:53:25Z

Hi Lindsay,

This radar image shows the location of the cell just prior to me
noticing the funnel. The brown dot SE of Mortlake is my location.

[link] <[link]>

The funnel was a long distance away as you can tell by the radar image,