Progs have all firmed on a significant cold outbreak - Thursday/Friday
- though its short lived and rather anticyclonic - so not likely to be
that wet.
Lasted Vic. forecast has snow to 800m. GFS and UK have thickness
values down to near 526 over Melbourne Thursday night which usually
means snow to near sea level. ECs a bit warmer at about 528.
A big high to follow, so this might be our last shot at rain for
August...
Also worth watching the "front" lying back across the Bight. This is
likely to produce some substantial rain through Bass Strait -
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp . Question is... how
much of this makes it into Vic.
Hi all....526 is pretty cold, after the cold air moves through the position of the 'super high' will influence the occurrence of frost so would expect severe frost risk north of the divide, the big high looks like it will peak over the next two days then weaken slowly moving east along 35 to 40 south. Interesting to see the lagging cold front over Bass Strait over the next 24 to 36 hours, would be nice to see it lag across southern Vic with enough moisture and convergence (wish forecast). Looking at the cold air field Thursday it has a long fetch from near 60+ south so would expect snow showers Thursday night early Friday to near 500/700M ,then warming above 10.000 feet as the ridge moves in for later Friday.....I am off to Adelaide for the weekend weather fest (ASWA AGM) if the high tracks south of Adelaide even the CBD may get low temps and frosts around the suburbs...would be interesting to see frost on the beach at Glenelg.!...Clyve H
----- Original Message ----- From: <D.Jo...@bom.gov.au> To: "austpacwx" <austpacwx@googlegroups.com> Sent: Tuesday, August 19, 2008 7:57 AM Subject: [austpacwx] Cold Outbreak later this week.
> Progs have all firmed on a significant cold outbreak - Thursday/Friday > - though its short lived and rather anticyclonic - so not likely to be > that wet.
> Lasted Vic. forecast has snow to 800m. GFS and UK have thickness > values down to near 526 over Melbourne Thursday night which usually > means snow to near sea level. ECs a bit warmer at about 528.
> A big high to follow, so this might be our last shot at rain for > August...
> Also worth watching the "front" lying back across the Bight. This is > likely to produce some substantial rain through Bass Strait - > http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp . Question is... how > much of this makes it into Vic.
yeah certainly going to be snappy, unfortunatly for here min. thickness comes through at diurnal max so the best to hope for is some good long distance pics of snow falling and turning to rain over the plain. the young fella has seen plenty of crazy lightning and psycho stormchases but no snow yet so tossing up wether it might be worth a trundle over to the grampians for a peek-a-boo on thirsday.
D.Jo...@bom.gov.au wrote: > Progs have all firmed on a significant cold outbreak - Thursday/Friday > - though its short lived and rather anticyclonic - so not likely to be > that wet.
> Lasted Vic. forecast has snow to 800m. GFS and UK have thickness > values down to near 526 over Melbourne Thursday night which usually > means snow to near sea level. ECs a bit warmer at about 528.
> A big high to follow, so this might be our last shot at rain for > August...
> Also worth watching the "front" lying back across the Bight. This is > likely to produce some substantial rain through Bass Strait - > http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp . Question is... how > much of this makes it into Vic.
Latest LAPS has 850Ts below -5C perhaps nearly -6C. The general rule I
apply in the Dandenongs is about -4C for snow, so -5C is seriously
cold. With precip that would put snow down into the foot hills.
DJ
On Aug 19, 8:40 am, Richard Modistach <hambone_ro...@internode.on.net>
wrote:
> yeah certainly going to be snappy,
> unfortunatly for here min. thickness comes through at diurnal max
> so the best to hope for is some good long distance pics of snow
> falling and turning to rain over the plain.
> the young fella has seen plenty of crazy lightning and psycho stormchases
> but no snow yet so tossing up wether it might be worth a trundle over
> to the grampians for a peek-a-boo on thirsday.
> regards
> richard
> D.Jo...@bom.gov.au wrote:
> > Progs have all firmed on a significant cold outbreak - Thursday/Friday
> > - though its short lived and rather anticyclonic - so not likely to be
> > that wet.
> > Lasted Vic. forecast has snow to 800m. GFS and UK have thickness
> > values down to near 526 over Melbourne Thursday night which usually
> > means snow to near sea level. ECs a bit warmer at about 528.
> > A big high to follow, so this might be our last shot at rain for
> > August...
> > Also worth watching the "front" lying back across the Bight. This is
> > likely to produce some substantial rain through Bass Strait -
> >http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp. Question is... how
> > much of this makes it into Vic.
----- Original Message ----- From: <D.Jo...@bom.gov.au> To: "austpacwx" <austpacwx@googlegroups.com> Sent: Tuesday, August 19, 2008 1:51 PM Subject: [austpacwx] Re: Cold Outbreak later this week.
Latest LAPS has 850Ts below -5C perhaps nearly -6C. The general rule I apply in the Dandenongs is about -4C for snow, so -5C is seriously cold. With precip that would put snow down into the foot hills.
DJ
On Aug 19, 8:40 am, Richard Modistach <hambone_ro...@internode.on.net> wrote: > yeah certainly going to be snappy, > unfortunatly for here min. thickness comes through at diurnal max > so the best to hope for is some good long distance pics of snow > falling and turning to rain over the plain. > the young fella has seen plenty of crazy lightning and psycho stormchases > but no snow yet so tossing up wether it might be worth a trundle over > to the grampians for a peek-a-boo on thirsday.
> regards > richard
> D.Jo...@bom.gov.au wrote: > > Progs have all firmed on a significant cold outbreak - Thursday/Friday > > - though its short lived and rather anticyclonic - so not likely to be > > that wet.
> > Lasted Vic. forecast has snow to 800m. GFS and UK have thickness > > values down to near 526 over Melbourne Thursday night which usually > > means snow to near sea level. ECs a bit warmer at about 528.
> > A big high to follow, so this might be our last shot at rain for > > August...
> > Also worth watching the "front" lying back across the Bight. This is > > likely to produce some substantial rain through Bass Strait - > >http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp. Question is... how > > much of this makes it into Vic.
> Bussy > ----- Original Message ----- > From: <D.Jo...@bom.gov.au> > To: "austpacwx" <austpacwx@googlegroups.com> > Sent: Tuesday, August 19, 2008 1:51 PM > Subject: [austpacwx] Re: Cold Outbreak later this week.
> Latest LAPS has 850Ts below -5C perhaps nearly -6C. The general rule I > apply in the Dandenongs is about -4C for snow, so -5C is seriously > cold. With precip that would put snow down into the foot hills.
> DJ
> On Aug 19, 8:40 am, Richard Modistach <hambone_ro...@internode.on.net> > wrote:
>> yeah certainly going to be snappy, >> unfortunatly for here min. thickness comes through at diurnal max >> so the best to hope for is some good long distance pics of snow >> falling and turning to rain over the plain. >> the young fella has seen plenty of crazy lightning and psycho stormchases >> but no snow yet so tossing up wether it might be worth a trundle over >> to the grampians for a peek-a-boo on thirsday.
>>> Progs have all firmed on a significant cold outbreak - Thursday/Friday >>> - though its short lived and rather anticyclonic - so not likely to be >>> that wet.
>>> Lasted Vic. forecast has snow to 800m. GFS and UK have thickness >>> values down to near 526 over Melbourne Thursday night which usually >>> means snow to near sea level. ECs a bit warmer at about 528.
>>> A big high to follow, so this might be our last shot at rain for >>> August...
>>> Also worth watching the "front" lying back across the Bight. This is >>> likely to produce some substantial rain through Bass Strait - >>> http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp. Question is... how >>> much of this makes it into Vic.
I'm not going to miss this one <g> - I reckon that I might be trudging on shanks' pony through a kilometre of blizzard & snow in Woodend at 5am on my way to the railway station on Friday morning...on my way to work and then onwards to Adelaide for the weekend for the ASWA conference....
Cheers,
Jane ------------------------------------- Jane ONeill aus...@iprimus.com.au
----- Original Message ----- From: "Clyve Herbert" <mes...@iprimus.com.au> To: <austpacwx@googlegroups.com> Sent: Tuesday, August 19, 2008 8:37 AM Subject: [austpacwx] Re: Cold Outbreak later this week.
> Hi all....526 is pretty cold, after the cold air moves through the > position > of the 'super high' will influence the occurrence of frost so would expect > severe frost risk north of the divide, the big high looks like it will > peak > over the next two days then weaken slowly moving east along 35 to 40 > south. > Interesting to see the lagging cold front over Bass Strait over the next > 24 > to 36 hours, would be nice to see it lag across southern Vic with enough > moisture and convergence (wish forecast). Looking at the cold air field > Thursday it has a long fetch from near 60+ south so would expect snow > showers Thursday night early Friday to near 500/700M ,then warming above > 10.000 feet as the ridge moves in for later Friday.....I am off to > Adelaide > for the weekend weather fest (ASWA AGM) if the high tracks south of > Adelaide > even the CBD may get low temps and frosts around the suburbs...would be > interesting to see frost on the beach at Glenelg.!...Clyve H > ----- Original Message ----- > From: <D.Jo...@bom.gov.au> > To: "austpacwx" <austpacwx@googlegroups.com> > Sent: Tuesday, August 19, 2008 7:57 AM > Subject: [austpacwx] Cold Outbreak later this week.
>> Progs have all firmed on a significant cold outbreak - Thursday/Friday >> - though its short lived and rather anticyclonic - so not likely to be >> that wet.
>> Lasted Vic. forecast has snow to 800m. GFS and UK have thickness >> values down to near 526 over Melbourne Thursday night which usually >> means snow to near sea level. ECs a bit warmer at about 528.
>> A big high to follow, so this might be our last shot at rain for >> August...
>> Also worth watching the "front" lying back across the Bight. This is >> likely to produce some substantial rain through Bass Strait - >> http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp . Question is... how >> much of this makes it into Vic.
> No virus found in this incoming message. > Checked by AVG - http://www.avg.com > Version: 8.0.138 / Virus Database: 270.6.4/1617 - Release Date: 17/08/2008 > 12:58 PM
just looked at the latest progs, ec and gfs have both backed off on the thickness levels, 530-32 at best, still a fairly active fast moving systen but overall looking pretty ordinary now.
> does what u say apply to the grampians thursday lunchtime to mid > afternoon? > when you say foothills, could you give me some sort of ASL please.
> regards > richard
> Bussy wrote: >> Ya getting me all excited now :-)
>> Hows it look for NE Vic?
>> Bussy >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: <D.Jo...@bom.gov.au> >> To: "austpacwx" <austpacwx@googlegroups.com> >> Sent: Tuesday, August 19, 2008 1:51 PM >> Subject: [austpacwx] Re: Cold Outbreak later this week.
>> Latest LAPS has 850Ts below -5C perhaps nearly -6C. The general rule I >> apply in the Dandenongs is about -4C for snow, so -5C is seriously >> cold. With precip that would put snow down into the foot hills.
Pressures are not falling a great deal across southeast Aus although that's relative to the big high south of Perth, thickness values still predicted to near 526/528 across central Vic overnight Thursday so would expect low level snow (550/700M) Thursday night and early Friday...Then we have to suffer a few days of anticyclonic gloom with not much happening except for a couple of good frosts...Clyve H
----- Original Message ----- From: Richard Modistach To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com Sent: Wednesday, August 20, 2008 4:52 AM
Subject: [austpacwx] Re: Cold Outbreak later this week.
just looked at the latest progs, ec and gfs have both backed off on the thickness levels, 530-32 at best,
still a fairly active fast moving systen but overall looking pretty ordinary now.
regards richard
Richard Modistach wrote: yer me too Mr, Jones,
does what u say apply to the grampians thursday lunchtime to mid afternoon?
when you say foothills, could you give me some sort of ASL please.
regards
richard
Bussy wrote: Ya getting me all excited now :-)
Hows it look for NE Vic?
Bussy
----- Original Message ----- From: <D.Jo...@bom.gov.au>
To: "austpacwx" <austpacwx@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, August 19, 2008 1:51 PM
Subject: [austpacwx] Re: Cold Outbreak later this week.
Latest LAPS has 850Ts below -5C perhaps nearly -6C. The general rule I
apply in the Dandenongs is about -4C for snow, so -5C is seriously
cold. With precip that would put snow down into the foot hills.
Interesting to watch the development of this cold snap and its attendant anticyclone over the last week on http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/latest_fwo_loop.pl?IDCODE=IDX0033&... .This is the link to the Indian Ocean surface maps. The change originated southwest of South Africa and the high looks like it was once a pup from an Atlantic high pressure system.
----- Original Message ----- From: Clyve Herbert To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com Sent: Wednesday, August 20, 2008 8:06 AM
Subject: [austpacwx] Re: Cold Outbreak later this week.
Pressures are not falling a great deal across southeast Aus although that's relative to the big high south of Perth, thickness values still predicted to near 526/528 across central Vic overnight Thursday so would expect low level snow (550/700M) Thursday night and early Friday...Then we have to suffer a few days of anticyclonic gloom with not much happening except for a couple of good frosts...Clyve H
----- Original Message ----- From: Richard Modistach To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com Sent: Wednesday, August 20, 2008 4:52 AM
Subject: [austpacwx] Re: Cold Outbreak later this week.
just looked at the latest progs, ec and gfs have both backed off on the thickness levels, 530-32 at best,
still a fairly active fast moving systen but overall looking pretty ordinary now.
regards richard
Richard Modistach wrote: yer me too Mr, Jones,
does what u say apply to the grampians thursday lunchtime to mid afternoon?
when you say foothills, could you give me some sort of ASL please.
regards
richard
Bussy wrote: Ya getting me all excited now :-)
Hows it look for NE Vic?
Bussy
----- Original Message ----- From: <D.Jo...@bom.gov.au>
To: "austpacwx" <austpacwx@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, August 19, 2008 1:51 PM
Subject: [austpacwx] Re: Cold Outbreak later this week.
Latest LAPS has 850Ts below -5C perhaps nearly -6C. The general rule I
apply in the Dandenongs is about -4C for snow, so -5C is seriously
cold. With precip that would put snow down into the foot hills.
Hi Keith...Yep noticed a formidable high south of Sth Africa last week would be interesting to do a global southern hemisphere study which may explain the blocking pattern we have experienced across the southern Ocean regions this winter...regards Clyve H
----- Original Message ----- From: Keith Barnett To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com Sent: Wednesday, August 20, 2008 8:43 AM
Subject: [austpacwx] Re: Cold Outbreak later this week.
Interesting to watch the development of this cold snap and its attendant anticyclone over the last week on http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/latest_fwo_loop.pl?IDCODE=IDX0033&... .This is the link to the Indian Ocean surface maps. The change originated southwest of South Africa and the high looks like it was once a pup from an Atlantic high pressure system.
----- Original Message ----- From: Clyve Herbert To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com Sent: Wednesday, August 20, 2008 8:06 AM
Subject: [austpacwx] Re: Cold Outbreak later this week.
Pressures are not falling a great deal across southeast Aus although that's relative to the big high south of Perth, thickness values still predicted to near 526/528 across central Vic overnight Thursday so would expect low level snow (550/700M) Thursday night and early Friday...Then we have to suffer a few days of anticyclonic gloom with not much happening except for a couple of good frosts...Clyve H
----- Original Message ----- From: Richard Modistach To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com Sent: Wednesday, August 20, 2008 4:52 AM
Subject: [austpacwx] Re: Cold Outbreak later this week.
just looked at the latest progs, ec and gfs have both backed off on the thickness levels, 530-32 at best,
still a fairly active fast moving systen but overall looking pretty ordinary now.
regards richard
Richard Modistach wrote: yer me too Mr, Jones,
does what u say apply to the grampians thursday lunchtime to mid afternoon?
when you say foothills, co
