Despite a poor monthly total for October, the Geelong region's rainfall has been around average over the June to October period. As a result, vegetation growth has boomed during the winter-spring and soil moisture levels and the dams are becoming replenished.
The Geelong Airport AWS has recently struggled to reflect accurately rainfall totals for this district (rainfall catch affected by strong wind gusts), but since June, the urban area generally as monitored by Geelong Weather Services observers has received 227 mm, compared to the 25-year AWS average (Bureau of Meteorology) of 240 mm. This means we received 95% of "normal", which puts us well within the average toleration.
If November and December are not good rainfall months however, Geelong may be looking at a dry start to summer. The BoM model is predicting such an eventuality, although Weatherzone is suggesting a wetter late summer. The catchments are currently at 37% of capacity, the highest since December, 2007, and the Otways have received approximately 95-110% of their average rain for June to October, so there is no need for pessimism. 2009, especially sinch March, has been a much better rainfall year than 2008, and this is reflected in the water storages.
TEMPERATURES Geelong was cooler by around 0.7 degree C in October, along with most of western Victoria. Average daily minimums were 6.9 degrees C compared to the long-term mean 7.6 C, and average daily maximums were 18.0 degrees C compared to 18.7 C.
The lowest minimum reached 2.5 C on both the 11th and the 24th, and the hottest day was the 20th (29.8 C).
OTHER FEATURES A fairly benign weather month, October produced small hail on the 6th and 5 strong wind gusts, including 80 kph at Geelong Airport AWS on the 13th. There was one thunder day with spectacular lightning displays on the evening of the 30th and 31st, but no major storm damage except some temporary loss of power in some areas. On the last day of the month heavy rain fell in North Geelong - Bell Post Hill but this will be included in the November figures because it occurred after 9am.
The coming fire season should not be a cause for undue fear or anxiety in the region. Despite the fact that preventive burning and fuel reduction has been only minimally practised this year, the outlook is not for any more extreme fire danger days than you would expect in a normal summer. Despite the fear-engendering rhetoric employed by some, we should remember that the forests and grasslands in this region are presently much wetter and greener than at this time last year. Of course they will dry off, but later in summer, so the danger period ought not to be as long as last year when low rainfalls all year ushered in the fire season. And we must not forget that arsonists can operate in any climate.
RAINFALL DATA
GEELONG REGION Location Total for
Month
(mm) Monthly
Average
(mm) Aireys Inlet 54.8 61.5 Anakie 44.8 66.0 Anglesea na 65.0 Apollo Bay 80.6 99.0 Ballan 43.8 58.0 Ballarat 31.6 69.6 Bannockburn 35.2 53.0 Barwon Heads 52.0 60.0 Bellbrae na 69.3 Bells Beach na 69.6 Beeac na 60.7 Birregurra 31.2 64.8 Boonah na n.a. Cape Otway 55.0 81.5 Clifton Springs (1) 29.6 48.0 Colac 28.4 73.6 Cressy 26.6 n.a. Curlewis na 48.0 Drysdale na 48.0 Durdidwarrah 41.6 n.a. Forrest 69.8 112.0 Forrest (West Barwon) 78.0 112.0 Inverleigh na 54.6 Johanna Heights 105.0 146.5 Lake Colac na n.a. Lal Lal 40.8 n.a. Lavers Hill 130.0 146.5 Laverton 33.8 61.0 Melba Gully na 170.0 Melbourne (City) 21.8 68.0 Meredith (Darra) 42.4 70.4 Moriac 37.2 n.a. Morrisons 31.4 n.a. Mt Buninyong na n.a. Mt Cowley 66.6 n.a. Mt Mercer na n.a. Mt Sabine 103.6 n.a. Ocean Grove na n.a. Point Lonsdale na 52.0 Pollocksford 37.6 n.a. Portarlington na 57.9 Queenscliff na 57.9 Shelford na 55.0 Sheoaks 35.2 n.a. Skipton na n.a. St Leonards na 58.0 Teesdale na 49.8 Torquay na 61.0 Warncoort na n.a. Weeaproinah 141.0 174.2 Winchelsea na 51.1 You Yangs na 46.5 GEELONG SUBURBS Location Total for
Month
(mm) Monthly
Average
(mm) Avalon 22.8 40.9 Bell Park 25.9 55.9 Belmont 36.5 57.0 City 32.0 50.0 Connewarre na 57.5 Corio 26.8 54.0 Grovedale 26.5 52.8 Grovedale South 26.8 56.3 Hamlyn Heights (1) 30.5 50.6 Hamlyn Heights (2) na 50.6 Highton na 56.1 Lara 30.0 46.0 Lara (Serendip) na 46.0 Leopold 43.5 64.0 Leopold East 33.5 64.0 Manifold Heights 33.9 57.0 Moolap 33.2 57.0 Mt Duneed Airport 26.2 50.8 Mt Duneed West 36.2 52.3 Waurn Ponds 30.0 50.0 Whittington na 53.5 Urban Geelong Average 30.0 50.0
BTW have you seen the vegetation greenness (essentially growth) available at http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/ndvi/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=late... . September is below - noting your comments about growth. There is a 1-2 week delay in these owing to the need to quality control the satellite data. Will be interesting to see what October brings (or brought)...
The September analysis shows very large anomalies near Geelong - around Avalon to Melbourne growth was very poor reflecting extremely dry conditions, while southwest of Geelong growth has been better than average. You can also see the Black Saturday fires very clearly by the very low greenness values near Kilmore, Marysville, Bunyip and Wilson Prom).
Regards,
David
[cid:657223501@02112009-0648]
________________________________
From: Lindsay Smail [mailto:g...@pipeline.com.au]
Sent: Sunday, 1 November 2009 11:03
To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com
Subject: [austpacwx] October Weather Geelong
October, 2009
RAINFALL
Despite a poor monthly total for October, the Geelong region's rainfall has been around average over the June to October period. As a result, vegetation growth has boomed during the winter-spring and soil moisture levels and the dams are becoming replenished.
The Geelong Airport AWS has recently struggled to reflect accurately rainfall totals for this district (rainfall catch affected by strong wind gusts), but since June, the urban area generally as monitored by Geelong Weather Services observers has received 227 mm, compared to the 25-year AWS average (Bureau of Meteorology) of 240 mm. This means we received 95% of "normal", which puts us well within the average toleration.
If November and December are not good rainfall months however, Geelong may be looking at a dry start to summer. The BoM model is predicting such an eventuality, although Weatherzone is suggesting a wetter late summer. The catchments are currently at 37% of capacity, the highest since December, 2007, and the Otways have received approximately 95-110% of their average rain for June to October, so there is no need for pessimism. 2009, especially sinch March, has been a much better rainfall year than 2008, and this is reflected in the water storages.
TEMPERATURES
Geelong was cooler by around 0.7 degree C in October, along with most of western Victoria. Average daily minimums were 6.9 degrees C compared to the long-term mean 7.6 C, and average daily maximums were 18.0 degrees C compared to 18.7 C.
The lowest minimum reached 2.5 C on both the 11th and the 24th, and the hottest day was the 20th (29.8 C).
OTHER FEATURES
A fairly benign weather month, October produced small hail on the 6th and 5 strong wind gusts, including 80 kph at Geelong Airport AWS on the 13th. There was one thunder day with spectacular lightning displays on the evening of the 30th and 31st, but no major storm damage except some temporary loss of power in some areas. On the last day of the month heavy rain fell in North Geelong - Bell Post Hill but this will be included in the November figures because it occurred after 9am.
The coming fire season should not be a cause for undue fear or anxiety in the region. Despite the fact that preventive burning and fuel reduction has been only minimally practised this year, the outlook is not for any more extreme fire danger days than you would expect in a normal summer. Despite the fear-engendering rhetoric employed by some, we should remember that the forests and grasslands in this region are presently much wetter and greener than at this time last year. Of course they will dry off, but later in summer, so the danger period ought not to be as long as last year when low rainfalls all year ushered in the fire season. And we must not forget that arsonists can operate in any climate.
RAINFALL DATA
GEELONG REGION
[cid:657223501@02112009-064F]<file:///C:/Website/gregion.htm> Location Total for
Month
(mm) Monthly
Average
(mm)
Aireys Inlet 54.8 61.5
Anakie 44.8 66.0
Anglesea na 65.0
Apollo Bay 80.6 99.0
Ballan 43.8 58.0
Ballarat 31.6 69.6
Bannockburn 35.2 53.0
Barwon Heads 52.0 60.0
Bellbrae na 69.3
Bells Beach na 69.6
Beeac na 60.7
Birregurra 31.2 64.8
Boonah na n.a.
Cape Otway 55.0 81.5
Clifton Springs (1) 29.6 48.0
Colac 28.4 73.6
Cressy 26.6 n.a.
Curlewis na 48.0
Drysdale na 48.0
Durdidwarrah 41.6 n.a.
Forrest 69.8 112.0
Forrest (West Barwon) 78.0 112.0
Inverleigh na 54.6
Johanna Heights 105.0 146.5
Lake Colac na n.a.
Lal Lal 40.8 n.a.
Lavers Hill 130.0 146.5
Laverton 33.8 61.0
Melba Gully na 170.0
Melbourne (City) 21.8 68.0
Meredith (Darra) 42.4 70.4
Moriac 37.2 n.a.
Morrisons 31.4 n.a.
Mt Buninyong na n.a.
Mt Cowley 66.6 n.a.
Mt Mercer na n.a.
Mt Sabine 103.6 n.a.
Ocean Grove na n.a.
Point Lonsdale na 52.0
Pollocksford 37.6 n.a.
Portarlington na 57.9
Queenscliff na 57.9
Shelford na 55.0
Sheoaks 35.2 n.a.
Skipton na n.a.
St Leonards na 58.0
Teesdale na 49.8
Torquay na 61.0
Warncoort na n.a.
Weeaproinah 141.0 174.2
Winchelsea na 51.1
You Yangs na 46.5
[cid:657223501@02112009-0656]
GEELONG SUBURBS
[cid:657223501@02112009-064F]<file:///C:/Website/gsuburbs.htm> Location Total for
Month
(mm) Monthly
Average
(mm)
Avalon 22.8 40.9
Bell Park 25.9 55.9
Belmont 36.5 57.0
City 32.0 50.0
Connewarre na 57.5
Corio 26.8 54.0
Grovedale 26.5 52.8
Grovedale South 26.8 56.3
Hamlyn Heights (1) 30.5 50.6
Hamlyn Heights (2) na 50.6
Highton na 56.1
Lara 30.0 46.0
Lara (Serendip) na 46.0
Leopold 43.5 64.0
Leopold East 33.5 64.0
Manifold Heights 33.9 57.0
Moolap 33.2 57.0
Mt Duneed Airport 26.2 50.8
Mt Duneed West 36.2 52.3
Waurn Ponds 30.0 50.0
Whittington na 53.5
Urban Geelong Average 30.0 50.0
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David and others - Thank you for your interest. The area north of Avalon-Little River certainly shows up dry and I guess October will continue the trend. I would be quite surprised if the Otways did not green up even more in Oct owing to the generally average to above av rainfalls there. Looking forward to the Oct image. To what extent would you think the colour shown would be influenced by the dominant tree species of an area? For example, would a large area of rapidly growing Blue Gums show up less green than Blackwoods? Or would grassland show up differently to a forest? Lindsay
----- Original Message ----- From: David Jones To: 'austpacwx@googlegroups.com' Sent: Monday, November 02, 2009 12:39 PM
Subject: RE: [austpacwx] October Weather Geelong [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Lindsay,
thanks for sending these out. Always a good read.
BTW have you seen the vegetation greenness (essentially growth) available at http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/ndvi/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=late... . September is below - noting your comments about growth. There is a 1-2 week delay in these owing to the need to quality control the satellite data. Will be interesting to see what October brings (or brought)...
The September analysis shows very large anomalies near Geelong - around Avalon to Melbourne growth was very poor reflecting extremely dry conditions, while southwest of Geelong growth has been better than average. You can also see the Black Saturday fires very clearly by the very low greenness values near Kilmore, Marysville, Bunyip and Wilson Prom).
Regards,
David
--------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---
From: Lindsay Smail [mailto:g...@pipeline.com.au] Sent: Sunday, 1 November 2009 11:03
To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com
Subject: [austpacwx] October Weather Geelong
October, 2009
RAINFALL
Despite a poor monthly total for October, the Geelong region's rainfall has been around average over the June to October period. As a result, vegetation growth has boomed during the winter-spring and soil moisture levels and the dams are becoming replenished.
The Geelong Airport AWS has recently struggled to reflect accurately rainfall totals for this district (rainfall catch affected by strong wind gusts), but since June, the urban area generally as monitored by Geelong Weather Services observers has received 227 mm, compared to the 25-year AWS average (Bureau of Meteorology) of 240 mm. This means we received 95% of "normal", which puts us well within the average toleration.
If November and December are not good rainfall months however, Geelong may be looking at a dry start to summer. The BoM model is predicting such an eventuality, although Weatherzone is suggesting a wetter late summer. The catchments are currently at 37% of capacity, the highest since December, 2007, and the Otways have received approximately 95-110% of their average rain for June to October, so there is no need for pessimism. 2009, especially sinch March, has been a much better rainfall year than 2008, and this is reflected in the water storages.
TEMPERATURES Geelong was cooler by around 0.7 degree C in October, along with most of western Victoria. Average daily minimums were 6.9 degrees C compared to the long-term mean 7.6 C, and average daily maximums were 18.0 degrees C compared to 18.7 C.
The lowest minimum reached 2.5 C on both the 11th and the 24th, and the hottest day was the 20th (29.8 C).
OTHER FEATURES A fairly benign weather month, October produced small hail on the 6th and 5 strong wind gusts, including 80 kph at Geelong Airport AWS on the 13th. There was one thunder day with spectacular lightning displays on the evening of the 30th and 31st, but no major storm damage except some temporary loss of power in some areas. On the last day of the month heavy rain fell in North Geelong - Bell Post Hill but this will be included in the November figures because it occurred after 9am.
The coming fire season should not be a cause for undue fear or anxiety in the region. Despite the fact that preventive burning and fuel reduction has been only minimally practised this year, the outlook is not for any more extreme fire danger days than you would expect in a normal summer. Despite the fear-engendering rhetoric employed by some, we should remember that the forests and grasslands in this region are presently much wetter and greener than at this time last year. Of course they will dry off, but later in summer, so the danger period ought not to be as long as last year when low rainfalls all year ushered in the fire season. And we must not forget that arsonists can operate in any climate.
RAINFALL DATA
GEELONG REGION Location Total for
Month
(mm) Monthly
Average
(mm) Aireys Inlet 54.8 61.5 Anakie 44.8 66.0 Anglesea na 65.0 Apollo Bay 80.6 99.0 Ballan 43.8 58.0 Ballarat 31.6 69.6 Bannockburn 35.2 53.0 Barwon Heads 52.0 60.0 Bellbrae na 69.3 Bells Beach na 69.6 Beeac na 60.7 Birregurra 31.2 64.8 Boonah na n.a. Cape Otway 55.0 81.5 Clifton Springs (1) 29.6 48.0 Colac 28.4 73.6 Cressy 26.6 n.a. Curlewis na 48.0 Drysdale na 48.0 Durdidwarrah 41.6 n.a. Forrest 69.8 112.0 Forrest (West Barwon) 78.0 112.0 Inverleigh na 54.6 Johanna Heights 105.0 146.5 Lake Colac na n.a. Lal Lal 40.8 n.a. Lavers Hill 130.0 146.5 Laverton 33.8 61.0 Melba Gully na 170.0 Melbourne (City) 21.8 68.0 Meredith (Darra) 42.4 70.4 Moriac 37.2 n.a. Morrisons 31.4 n.a. Mt Buninyong na n.a. Mt Cowley 66.6 n.a. Mt Mercer na n.a. Mt Sabine 103.6 n.a. Ocean Grove na n.a. Point Lonsdale na 52.0 Pollocksford 37.6 n.a. Portarlington na 57.9 Queenscliff na 57.9 Shelford na 55.0 Sheoaks 35.2 n.a. Skipton na n.a. St Leonards na 58.0 Teesdale na 49.8 Torquay na 61.0 Warncoort na n.a. Weeaproinah 141.0 174.2 Winchelsea na 51.1 You Yangs na 46.5 GEELONG SUBURBS Location Total for
Month
(mm) Monthly
Average
(mm) Avalon 22.8 40.9 Bell Park 25.9 55.9 Belmont 36.5 57.0 City 32.0 50.0 Connewarre na 57.5 Corio 26.8 54.0 Grovedale 26.5 52.8 Grovedale South 26.8 56.3 Hamlyn Heights (1) 30.5 50.6 Hamlyn Heights (2) na 50.6 Highton na 56.1 Lara 30.0 46.0 Lara (Serendip) na 46.0 Leopold 43.5 64.0 Leopold East 33.5 64.0 Manifold Heights 33.9 57.0 Moolap 33.2 57.0 Mt Duneed Airport 26.2 50.8 Mt Duneed West 36.2 52.3 Waurn Ponds 30.0 50.0 Whittington na 53.5 Urban Geelong Average 30.0 50.0
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I'm not surprised with the Geelong to Melbourne Bit. This will be the
second year in a row that flat ground and northern slopes will only support
dust on a large scale.
No rainfall + Rabbit plague = itchy eyes.
From: David Jones [mailto:D.Jo...@bom.gov.au] Sent: Monday, 2 November 2009 12:40 PM
To: 'austpacwx@googlegroups.com'
Subject: RE: [austpacwx] October Weather Geelong [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
The September analysis shows very large anomalies near Geelong - around
Avalon to Melbourne growth was very poor reflecting extremely dry
conditions, while southwest of Geelong growth has been better than average.
You can also see the Black Saturday fires very clearly by the very low
greenness values near Kilmore, Marysville, Bunyip and Wilson Prom).
Regards,
David
_____
From: Lindsay Smail [mailto:g...@pipeline.com.au] Sent: Sunday, 1 November 2009 11:03
To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com
Subject: [austpacwx] October Weather Geelong
October, 2009
RAINFALL
Despite a poor monthly total for October, the Geelong region's rainfall has
been around average over the June to October period. As a result, vegetation
growth has boomed during the winter-spring and soil moisture levels and the
dams are becoming replenished.
The Geelong Airport AWS has recently struggled to reflect accurately
rainfall totals for this district (rainfall catch affected by strong wind
gusts), but since June, the urban area generally as monitored by Geelong
Weather Services observers has received 227 mm, compared to the 25-year AWS
average (Bureau of Meteorology) of 240 mm. This means we received 95% of
"normal", which puts us well within the average toleration.
If November and December are not good rainfall months however, Geelong may
be looking at a dry start to summer. The BoM model is predicting such an
eventuality, although Weatherzone is suggesting a wetter late summer. The
catchments are currently at 37% of capacity, the highest since December,
2007, and the Otways have received approximately 95-110% of their average
rain for June to October, so there is no need for pessimism. 2009,
especially sinch March, has been a much better rainfall year than 2008, and
this is reflected in the water storages.
TEMPERATURES Geelong was cooler by around 0.7 degree C in October, along with most of
western Victoria. Average daily minimums were 6.9 degrees C compared to the
long-term mean 7.6 C, and average daily maximums were 18.0 degrees C
compared to 18.7 C.
The lowest minimum reached 2.5 C on both the 11th and the 24th, and the
hottest day was the 20th (29.8 C).
OTHER FEATURES A fairly benign weather month, October produced small hail on the 6th and 5
strong wind gusts, including 80 kph at Geelong Airport AWS on the 13th.
There was one thunder day with spectacular lightning displays on the evening
of the 30th and 31st, but no major storm damage except some temporary loss
of power in some areas. On the last day of the month heavy rain fell in
North Geelong - Bell Post Hill but this will be included in the November
figures because it occurred after 9am.
The coming fire season should not be a cause for undue fear or anxiety in
the region. Despite the fact that preventive burning and fuel reduction has
been only minimally practised this year, the outlook is not for any more
extreme fire danger days than you would expect in a normal summer. Despite
the fear-engendering rhetoric employed by some, we should remember that the
forests and grasslands in this region are presently much wetter and greener
than at this time last year. Of course they will dry off, but later in
summer, so the danger period ought not to be as long as last year when low
rainfalls all year ushered in the fire season. And we must not forget that
arsonists can operate in any climate.
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the greeness is a measure of the fraction of photosynthetic activity. A nice summary is at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalized_Difference_Vegetation_Index . I would expect, that on average, younger trees with more leaves and less wood would tend to have more green than old trees (for example).
We tend to focus on anomalies which really map the extent to which vegetation is stressed (most usually by drought). In forested areas you tend to find not much variation from year to year (as these can draw water from deeper down) though in the long run forests do change when droughts/wet periods are long lived.
David
________________________________
From: Lindsay Smail [mailto:g...@pipeline.com.au]
Sent: Monday, 2 November 2009 14:21
To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: [austpacwx] October Weather Geelong [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
David and others - Thank you for your interest. The area north of Avalon-Little River certainly shows up dry and I guess October will continue the trend. I would be quite surprised if the Otways did not green up even more in Oct owing to the generally average to above av rainfalls there. Looking forward to the Oct image. To what extent would you think the colour shown would be influenced by the dominant tree species of an area? For example, would a large area of rapidly growing Blue Gums show up less green than Blackwoods? Or would grassland show up differently to a forest? Lindsay
----- Original Message -----
From: David Jones<mailto:D.Jo...@bom.gov.au>
To: 'austpacwx@googlegroups.com'<mailto:'austpacwx@googlegroups.com'>
Sent: Monday, November 02, 2009 12:39 PM
Subject: RE: [austpacwx] October Weather Geelong [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Lindsay,
thanks for sending these out. Always a good read.
BTW have you seen the vegetation greenness (essentially growth) available at http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/ndvi/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=late... . September is below - noting your comments about growth. There is a 1-2 week delay in these owing to the need to quality control the satellite data. Will be interesting to see what October brings (or brought)...
The September analysis shows very large anomalies near Geelong - around Avalon to Melbourne growth was very poor reflecting extremely dry conditions, while southwest of Geelong growth has been better than average. You can also see the Black Saturday fires very clearly by the very low greenness values near Kilmore, Marysville, Bunyip and Wilson Prom).
Regards,
David
[cid:030513101@05112009-069C]
________________________________
From: Lindsay Smail [mailto:g...@pipeline.com.au]
Sent: Sunday, 1 November 2009 11:03
To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com
Subject: [austpacwx] October Weather Geelong
October, 2009
RAINFALL
Despite a poor monthly total for October, the Geelong region's rainfall has been around average over the June to October period. As a result, vegetation growth has boomed during the winter-spring and soil moisture levels and the dams are becoming replenished.
The Geelong Airport AWS has recently struggled to reflect accurately rainfall totals for this district (rainfall catch affected by strong wind gusts), but since June, the urban area generally as monitored by Geelong Weather Services observers has received 227 mm, compared to the 25-year AWS average (Bureau of Meteorology) of 240 mm. This means we received 95% of "normal", which puts us well within the average toleration.
If November and December are not good rainfall months however, Geelong may be looking at a dry start to summer. The BoM model is predicting such an eventuality, although Weatherzone is suggesting a wetter late summer. The catchments are currently at 37% of capacity, the highest since December, 2007, and the Otways have received approximately 95-110% of their average rain for June to October, so there is no need for pessimism. 2009, especially sinch March, has been a much better rainfall year than 2008, and this is reflected in the water storages.
TEMPERATURES
Geelong was cooler by around 0.7 degree C in October, along with most of western Victoria. Average daily minimums were 6.9 degrees C compared to the long-term mean 7.6 C, and average daily maximums were 18.0 degrees C compared to 18.7 C.
The lowest minimum reached 2.5 C on both the 11th and the 24th, and the hottest day was the 20th (29.8 C).
OTHER FEATURES
A fairly benign weather month, October produced small hail on the 6th and 5 strong wind gusts, including 80 kph at Geelong Airport AWS on the 13th. There was one thunder day with spectacular lightning displays on the evening of the 30th and 31st, but no major storm damage except some temporary loss of power in some areas. On the last day of the month heavy rain fell in North Geelong - Bell Post Hill but this will be included in the November figures because it occurred after 9am.
The coming fire season should not be a cause for undue fear or anxiety in the region. Despite the fact that preventive burning and fuel reduction has been only minimally practised this year, the outlook is not for any more extreme fire danger days than you would expect in a normal summer. Despite the fear-engendering rhetoric employed by some, we should remember that the forests and grasslands in this region are presently much wetter and greener than at this time last year. Of course they will dry off, but later in summer, so the danger period ought not to be as long as last year when low rainfalls all year ushered in the fire season. And we must not forget that arsonists can operate in any climate.
RAINFALL DATA
GEELONG REGION
[cid:030513101@05112009-06A3]<file:///C:/Website/gregion.htm> Location Total for
Month
(mm) Monthly
Average
(mm)
Aireys Inlet 54.8 61.5
Anakie 44.8 66.0
Anglesea na 65.0
Apollo Bay 80.6 99.0
Ballan 43.8 58.0
Ballarat 31.6 69.6
Bannockburn 35.2 53.0
Barwon Heads 52.0 60.0
Bellbrae na 69.3
Bells Beach na 69.6
Beeac na 60.7
Birregurra 31.2 64.8
Boonah na n.a.
Cape Otway 55.0 81.5
Clifton Springs (1) 29.6 48.0
Colac 28.4 73.6
Cressy 26.6 n.a.
Curlewis na 48.0
Drysdale na 48.0
Durdidwarrah 41.6 n.a.
Forrest 69.8 112.0
Forrest (West Barwon) 78.0 112.0
Inverleigh na 54.6
Johanna Heights 105.0 146.5
Lake Colac na n.a.
Lal Lal 40.8 n.a.
Lavers Hill 130.0 146.5
Laverton 33.8 61.0
Melba Gully na 170.0
Melbourne (City) 21.8 68.0
Meredith (Darra) 42.4 70.4
Moriac 37.2 n.a.
Morrisons 31.4 n.a.
Mt Buninyong na n.a.
Mt Cowley 66.6 n.a.
Mt Mercer na n.a.
Mt Sabine 103.6 n.a.
Ocean Grove na n.a.
Point Lonsdale na 52.0
Pollocksford 37.6 n.a.
Portarlington na 57.9
Queenscliff na 57.9
Shelford na 55.0
Sheoaks 35.2 n.a.
Skipton na n.a.
St Leonards na 58.0
Teesdale na 49.8
Torquay na 61.0
Warncoort na n.a.
Weeaproinah 141.0 174.2
Winchelsea na 51.1
You Yangs na 46.5
[cid:030513101@05112009-06AA]
GEELONG SUBURBS
[cid:030513101@05112009-06A3]<file:///C:/Website/gsuburbs.htm> Location Total for
Month
(mm) Monthly
Average
(mm)
Avalon 22.8 40.9
Bell Park 25.9 55.9
Belmont 36.5 57.0
City 32.0 50.0
Connewarre na 57.5
Corio 26.8 54.0
Grovedale 26.5 52.8
Grovedale South 26.8 56.3
Hamlyn Heights (1) 30.5 50.6
Hamlyn Heights (2) na 50.6
Highton na 56.1
Lara 30.0 46.0
Lara (Serendip) na 46.0
Leopold 43.5 64.0
Leopold East 33.5 64.0
Manifold Heights 33.9 57.0
Moolap 33.2 57.0
Mt Duneed Airport 26.2 50.8
Mt Duneed West 36.2 52.3
Waurn Ponds 30.0 50.0
Whittington na 53.5
Urban Geelong Average 30.0 50.0
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----- Original Message ----- From: David Jones To: 'austpacwx@googlegroups.com' Sent: Thursday, November 05, 2009 1:52 PM
Subject: RE: [austpacwx] October Weather Geelong [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Lindsay,
the greeness is a measure of the fraction of photosynthetic activity. A nice summary is at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalized_Difference_Vegetation_Index . I would expect, that on average, younger trees with more leaves and less wood would tend to have more green than old trees (for example).
We tend to focus on anomalies which really map the extent to which vegetation is stressed (most usually by drought). In forested areas you tend to find not much variation from year to year (as these can draw water from deeper down) though in the long run forests do change when droughts/wet periods are long lived.
David
--------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---
From: Lindsay Smail [mailto:g...@pipeline.com.au] Sent: Monday, 2 November 2009 14:21
To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: [austpacwx] October Weather Geelong [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
David and others - Thank you for your interest. The area north of Avalon-Little River certainly shows up dry and I guess October will continue the trend. I would be quite surprised if the Otways did not green up even more in Oct owing to the generally average to above av rainfalls there. Looking forward to the Oct image. To what extent would you think the colour shown would be influenced by the dominant tree species of an area? For example, would a large area of rapidly growing Blue Gums show up less green than Blackwoods? Or would grassland show up differently to a forest? Lindsay
----- Original Message ----- From: David Jones To: 'austpacwx@googlegroups.com' Sent: Monday, November 02, 2009 12:39 PM
Subject: RE: [austpacwx] October Weather Geelong [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Lindsay,
thanks for sending these out. Always a good read.
BTW have you seen the vegetation greenness (essentially growth) available at http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/ndvi/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=late... . September is below - noting your comments about growth. There is a 1-2 week delay in these owing to the need to quality control the satellite data. Will be interesting to see what October brings (or brought)...
The September analysis shows very large anomalies near Geelong - around Avalon to Melbourne growth was very poor reflecting extremely dry conditions, while southwest of Geelong growth has been better than average. You can also see the Black Saturday fires very clearly by the very low greenness values near Kilmore, Marysville, Bunyip and Wilson Prom).
Regards,
David
--------------------------------------------------------------------------- -
From: Lindsay Smail [mailto:g...@pipeline.com.au] Sent: Sunday, 1 November 2009 11:03
To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com
Subject: [austpacwx] October Weather Geelong
October, 2009
RAINFALL
Despite a poor monthly total for October, the Geelong region's rainfall has been around average over the June to October period. As a result, vegetation growth has boomed during the winter-spring and soil moisture levels and the dams are becoming replenished.
The Geelong Airport AWS has recently struggled to reflect accurately rainfall totals for this district (rainfall catch affected by strong wind gusts), but since June, the urban area generally as monitored by Geelong Weather Services observers has received 227 mm, compared to the 25-year AWS average (Bureau of Meteorology) of 240 mm. This means we received 95% of "normal", which puts us well within the average toleration.
If November and December are not good rainfall months however, Geelong may be looking at a dry start to summer. The BoM model is predicting such an eventuality, although Weatherzone is suggesting a wetter late summer. The catchments are currently at 37% of capacity, the highest since December, 2007, and the Otways have received approximately 95-110% of their average rain for June to October, so there is no need for pessimism. 2009, especially sinch March, has been a much better rainfall year than 2008, and this is reflected in the water storages.
TEMPERATURES Geelong was cooler by around 0.7 degree C in October, along with most of western Victoria. Average daily minimums were 6.9 degrees C compared to the long-term mean 7.6 C, and average daily maximums were 18.0 degrees C compared to 18.7 C.
The lowest minimum reached 2.5 C on both the 11th and the 24th, and the hottest day was the 20th (29.8 C).
OTHER FEATURES A fairly benign weather month, October produced small hail on the 6th and 5 strong wind gusts, including 80 kph at Geelong Airport AWS on the 13th. There was one thunder day with spectacular lightning displays on the evening of the 30th and 31st, but no major storm damage except some temporary loss of power in some areas. On the last day of the month heavy rain fell in North Geelong - Bell Post Hill but this will be included in the November figures because it occurred after 9am.
The coming fire season should not be a cause for undue fear or anxiety in the region. Despite the fact that preventive burning and fuel reduction has been only minimally practised this year, the outlook is not for any more extreme fire danger days than you would expect in a normal summer. Despite the fear-engendering rhetoric employed by some, we should remember that the forests and grasslands in this region are presently much wetter and greener than at this time last year. Of course they will dry off, but later in summer, so the danger period ought not to be as long as last year when low rainfalls all year ushered in the fire season. And we must not forget that arsonists can operate in any climate.
RAINFALL DATA
GEELONG REGION Location Total for
Month
(mm) Monthly
Average
(mm) Aireys Inlet 54.8 61.5 Anakie 44.8 66.0 Anglesea na 65.0 Apollo Bay 80.6 99.0 Ballan 43.8 58.0 Ballarat 31.6 69.6 Bannockburn 35.2 53.0 Barwon Heads 52.0 60.0 Bellbrae na 69.3 Bells Beach na 69.6 Beeac na 60.7 Birregurra 31.2 64.8 Boonah na n.a. Cape Otway 55.0 81.5 Clifton Springs (1) 29.6 48.0 Colac 28.4 73.6 Cressy 26.6 n.a. Curlewis na 48.0 Drysdale na 48.0 Durdidwarrah 41.6 n.a. Forrest 69.8 112.0 Forrest (West Barwon) 78.0 112.0 Inverleigh na 54.6 Johanna Heights 105.0 146.5 Lake Colac na n.a. Lal Lal 40.8 n.a. Lavers Hill 130.0 146.5 Laverton 33.8 61.0 Melba Gully na 170.0 Melbourne (City) 21.8 68.0 Meredith (Darra) 42.4 70.4 Moriac 37.2 n.a. Morrisons 31.4 n.a. Mt Buninyong na n.a. Mt Cowley 66.6 n.a. Mt Mercer na n.a. Mt Sabine 103.6 n.a. Ocean Grove na n.a. Point Lonsdale na 52.0 Pollocksford 37.6 n.a. Portarlington na 57.9 Queenscliff na 57.9 Shelford na 55.0 Sheoaks 35.2 n.a. Skipton na n.a. St Leonards na 58.0 Teesdale na 49.8 Torquay na 61.0 Warncoort na n.a. Weeaproinah 141.0 174.2 Winchelsea na 51.1 You Yangs na 46.5 GEELONG SUBURBS Location Total for
Month
(mm) Monthly
Average
(mm) Avalon 22.8 40.9 Bell Park 25.9 55.9 Belmont 36.5 57.0 City 32.0 50.0 Connewarre na 57.5 Corio 26.8 54.0 Grovedale 26.5 52.8 Grovedale South 26.8 56.3 Hamlyn Heights (1) 30.5 50.6 Hamlyn Heights (2) na 50.6 Highton na 56.1 Lara 30.0 46.0 Lara (Serendip) na 46.0 Leopold 43.5 64.0 Leopold East 33.5 64.0 Manifold Heights 33.9 57.0 Moolap 33.2 57.0 Mt Duneed Airport 26.2 50.8 Mt Duneed West 36.2 52.3 Waurn Ponds 30.0 50.0 Whittington na 53.5 Urban Geelong Average 30.0 50.0
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