The prospect of a persistent strong heatwave for southern states next week looks interesting. Current progs suggest max's near or in the 40's in NW Vic and southern inland SA... mid 30's in southern Vic. These are around 5C above Nov decile 9 max temps... but things could obviously change between now and then (and I hope for the southerners' sakes, it does).

  Ensembled models have looked unwavering for awhile now in their strong signal for very hot temps over southern Oz. NCEP still suggests >90% probability of 850T exceeding 1 standard deviation above mean over southern SA/southwest VIC... CMC has been going for >90% probability of significantly higher than average surface temps as well. EC has a very stubborn and strong upper ridge/high sitting over the Bight for most of next week which retrogresses slowly westwards.

  Ken.

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The prospect of a persistent strong heatwave for southern states next week looks interesting. Current progs suggest max's near or in the 40's in NW Vic and southern inland SA... mid 30's in southern Vic. These are around 5C above Nov decile 9 max temps... but things could obviously change between now and then (and I hope for the southerners' sakes, it does).

Ensembled models have looked unwavering for awhile now in their strong signal for very hot temps over southern Oz. NCEP still suggests >90% probability of 850T exceeding 1 standard deviation above mean over southern SA/southwest VIC... CMC has been going for >90% probability of significantly higher than average surface temps as well. EC has a very stubborn and strong upper ridge/high sitting over the Bight for most of next week which retrogresses slowly westwards.

Ken.

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  This heatwave really has been remarkable. It'll be interesting to see all the stats for SA and VIC after November's over.

  Ken.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---

  Well our heatwave here in SA is practically over, with the temp tomorrow expected to be only 28C.
  We do however shoot back to 34C on Tuesday, and a crazy 41C on both Wednesday & Thursday!!!

  We are currently sitting almost 9C above our normal November average & could well end up close to our highest ever average of any month, although it does appear we will be getting some low 20 temps next weekend.

  For the record this has been Adelaide's record run of November temps:

                                                                MAX        MIN

        Sat 07/11/2009   34.4 18.6
        Sun 08/11/2009  36.7 25.4
        Mon 09/11/2009  37.0 24.5
        Tue 10/11/2009  38.9 22.9
        Wed 11/11/2009  39.2 22.9
        Thurs 12/11/2009 39.2 24.5
        Frid 13/11/2009 38.7 21.9
        Sat 14/11/2009 39.5 23.3
        Sun 15/11/2009 39.4 20.9

  Cheers
  Tim.

    ----- Original Message -----
    From: Ken Kato
    To: Austpacwx
    Sent: Tuesday, November 03, 2009 8:19 PM
    Subject: [austpacwx] Upcoming southern Oz heatwave

    The prospect of a persistent strong heatwave for southern states next week looks interesting. Current progs suggest max's near or in the 40's in NW Vic and southern inland SA... mid 30's in southern Vic. These are around 5C above Nov decile 9 max temps... but things could obviously change between now and then (and I hope for the southerners' sakes, it does).

    Ensembled models have looked unwavering for awhile now in their strong signal for very hot temps over southern Oz. NCEP still suggests >90% probability of 850T exceeding 1 standard deviation above mean over southern SA/southwest VIC... CMC has been going for >90% probability of significantly higher than average surface temps as well. EC has a very stubborn and strong upper ridge/high sitting over the Bight for most of next week which retrogresses slowly westwards.

    Ken.

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