Hi all.
A few storms along the Murray this evening forming along an odd looking dryline, the moisture appears south of a dryline extending northwest to southeast just north of the Murray River, moisture appears to be extending from northern Vic. north of dryline appears very dry through the interior of southwest NSW....Clyve H
I can attest to that - yesterday's anvils in the northeast were behaving in a similar manner to yesterday and being dragged off to the northeast, but nothing really got going until it had crossed the border or was up on the eastern and northeastern ranges.....there were some nice turkeys about and a nice sunset....
-------------------------------------
Jane ONeill
aus...@iprimus.com.au
----- Original Message ----- From: Clyve Herbert To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com Sent: Sunday, November 01, 2009 9:08 PM
Subject: [austpacwx] Odd 'dryline' Rivirina NSW
Hi all.
A few storms along the Murray this evening forming along an odd looking dryline, the moisture appears south of a dryline extending northwest to southeast just north of the Murray River, moisture appears to be extending from northern Vic. north of dryline appears very dry through the interior of southwest NSW....Clyve H
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It's actually interesting how well those storms themselves are aligned with the Murray.
Speaking of NSW, it's been looking like deja vu for another possible rain event later this week for E NSW and possibly SE QLD.
It looks similar to last week in terms of an amplifying upper trough cutting off (or at least almost) over the area. Doesn't currently look as spectacular as last week's event though. The W Tasman Sea is still very warm since start of spring so leads me to wonder if it's playing a role in the recent rains in the area (the correlation between Tasman Sea SST's and eastern rainfall has appeared in research papers before).
Ken.
Hi all.
A few storms along the Murray this evening forming along an odd looking dryline, the moisture appears south of a dryline extending northwest to southeast just north of the Murray River, moisture appears to be extending from northern Vic. north of dryline appears very dry through the interior of southwest NSW....Clyve H
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From: Jane ONeill [mailto:aus...@iprimus.com.au] Sent: Sunday, November 01, 2009 9:24 PM
To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Odd 'dryline' Rivirina NSW
I can attest to that - yesterday's anvils in the northeast were behaving in
a similar manner to yesterday and being dragged off to the northeast, but
nothing really got going until it had crossed the border or was up on the
eastern and northeastern ranges.....there were some nice turkeys about and a
nice sunset....
-------------------------------------
Jane ONeill
aus...@iprimus.com.au
From: Clyve Herbert <mailto:mes...@iprimus.com.au>
To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com
Sent: Sunday, November 01, 2009 9:08 PM
Subject: [austpacwx] Odd 'dryline' Rivirina NSW
Hi all.
A few storms along the Murray this evening forming along an odd looking
dryline, the moisture appears south of a dryline extending northwest to
southeast just north of the Murray River, moisture appears to be extending
from northern Vic. north of dryline appears very dry through the interior of
southwest NSW....Clyve H
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Hi Ken
I am sort of interested in the trough over the Bight and the baroclinic cloud band dribbling across southern Vic, the BOM here show little interest in this system for Vic in regards to rainfall, however the trough deepened rapidly tonight and then forms a V/Max near Kangaroo island , there is sufficient moisture in the mid levels I think it will only take a slightly more easterly track of this low to generate better rain prospects for Vic. C
----- Original Message ----- From: Ken Kato To: Austpacwx Sent: Sunday, November 01, 2009 9:41 PM
Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Odd 'dryline' Rivirina NSW
It's actually interesting how well those storms themselves are aligned with the Murray.
Speaking of NSW, it's been looking like deja vu for another possible rain event later this week for E NSW and possibly SE QLD. It looks similar to last week in terms of an amplifying upper trough cutting off (or at least almost) over the area. Doesn't currently look as spectacular as last week's event though. The W Tasman Sea is still very warm since start of spring so leads me to wonder if it's playing a role in the recent rains in the area (the correlation between Tasman Sea SST's and eastern rainfall has appeared in research papers before).
Hi all.
A few storms along the Murray this evening forming along an odd looking dryline, the moisture appears south of a dryline extending northwest to southeast just north of the Murray River, moisture appears to be extending from northern Vic. north of dryline appears very dry through the interior of southwest NSW....Clyve H
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Hi all.
Further to these storms along the Murray a time lapse of the sat pic shows a weird anticyclonic rotation over southwest NSW and northern Vic in the motion of the cloud elements and movement of the storms...regards Clyve H
----- Original Message ----- From: Clyve Herbert To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com Sent: Sunday, November 01, 2009 10:01 PM
Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Odd 'dryline' Rivirina NSW
Hi Ken
I am sort of interested in the trough over the Bight and the baroclinic cloud band dribbling across southern Vic, the BOM here show little interest in this system for Vic in regards to rainfall, however the trough deepened rapidly tonight and then forms a V/Max near Kangaroo island , there is sufficient moisture in the mid levels I think it will only take a slightly more easterly track of this low to generate better rain prospects for Vic. C
----- Original Message ----- From: Ken Kato To: Austpacwx Sent: Sunday, November 01, 2009 9:41 PM
Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Odd 'dryline' Rivirina NSW
It's actually interesting how well those storms themselves are aligned with the Murray.
Speaking of NSW, it's been looking like deja vu for another possible rain event later this week for E NSW and possibly SE QLD. It looks similar to last week in terms of an amplifying upper trough cutting off (or at least almost) over the area. Doesn't currently look as spectacular as last week's event though. The W Tasman Sea is still very warm since start of spring so leads me to wonder if it's playing a role in the recent rains in the area (the correlation between Tasman Sea SST's and eastern rainfall has appeared in research papers before).
Hi all.
A few storms along the Murray this evening forming along an odd looking dryline, the moisture appears south of a dryline extending northwest to southeast just north of the Murray River, moisture appears to be extending from northern Vic. north of dryline appears very dry through the interior of southwest NSW....Clyve H
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There's a distinct low to midlevel high (although not extending down to the surface) over SW NSW north of the storms that's showing up on the forecast fields for all models - see attached 700hpa height/wind field from LAPS for 12z tonight:
Ken.
Hi all.
Further to these storms along the Murray a time lapse of the sat pic shows a weird anticyclonic rotation over southwest NSW and northern Vic in the motion of the cloud elements and movement of the storms...regards Clyve H
1st Nov 09 - 700hpa Height and Wind.gif
23K
Download
From: Clyve Herbert [mailto:mes...@iprimus.com.au] Sent: Sunday, 1 November 2009 10:02 PM
To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Odd 'dryline' Rivirina NSW
Hi Ken
I am sort of interested in the trough over the Bight and the baroclinic
cloud band dribbling across southern Vic, the BOM here show little interest
in this system for Vic in regards to rainfall, however the trough deepened
rapidly tonight and then forms a V/Max near Kangaroo island , there is
sufficient moisture in the mid levels I think it will only take a slightly
more easterly track of this low to generate better rain prospects for Vic. C
It's actually interesting how well those storms themselves are aligned with
the Murray.
Speaking of NSW, it's been looking like deja vu for another possible rain
event later this week for E NSW and possibly SE QLD. It looks similar to last week in terms of an amplifying upper trough cutting
off (or at least almost) over the area. Doesn't currently look as
spectacular as last week's event though. The W Tasman Sea is still very warm
since start of spring so leads me to wonder if it's playing a role in the
recent rains in the area (the correlation between Tasman Sea SST's and
eastern rainfall has appeared in research papers before).
Ken.
_____
Hi all.
A few storms along the Murray this evening forming along an odd looking
dryline, the moisture appears south of a dryline extending northwest to
southeast just north of the Murray River, moisture appears to be extending
from northern Vic. north of dryline appears very dry through the interior of
southwest NSW....Clyve H
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Hi all,
We had an interesting event in the ACT region this afternoon following a "teasing" series of storms yesterday.Yesterday(Saturday) afternoon (and Friday PM too)the storms formed along the southern end of the Brindabellas and moved northward along the Range under the guidance of mid level southerly winds.This afternoon by contrast the storm line was along the Ranges east of the ACT with some very intense looking cells to the south and southeast of Queanbeyan,they were moving northeasterly.There was absolutely no convective cloud over the Brindabellas .We could hear the thunder and saw some lightning after sunset before the storms dissipated.Yesterday the winds were northeasterly, today they became moderate westerly this afternoon before a later easterly surge after sunset. I suspect that a 'dryline' to our east was the trigger as the moderate rather dry (DP12) was converging with a moister flow from the Coast to our east.Once the easterly reached us the storms rapidly weakend.I have been watching the Riverina storms moving east but doubt that they will last long enough to reach Canberra in the early morning hours.By the way the October rainfall here was 80.2 mm for the month almost double the usual 51mm. Canberra A/P was blow average.
Gavin,
Gilmore ACT
From: mes...@iprimus.com.au
To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Odd 'dryline' Rivirina NSW
Date: Sun, 1 Nov 2009 22:01:42 +1100
Hi Ken
I am sort of interested in the trough over the Bight and the baroclinic cloud band dribbling across southern Vic, the BOM here show little interest in this system for Vic in regards to rainfall, however the trough deepened rapidly tonight and then forms a V/Max near Kangaroo island , there is sufficient moisture in the mid levels I think it will only take a slightly more easterly track of this low to generate better rain prospects for Vic. C
To: Austpacwx Sent: Sunday, November 01, 2009 9:41 PM
Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Odd 'dryline' Rivirina NSW
It's actually interesting how well those storms themselves are aligned with the Murray.
Speaking of NSW, it's been looking like deja vu for another possible rain event later this week for E NSW and possibly SE QLD. It looks similar to last week in terms of an amplifying upper trough cutting off (or at least almost) over the area. Doesn't currently look as spectacular as last week's event though. The W Tasman Sea is still very warm since start of spring so leads me to wonder if it's playing a role in the recent rains in the area (the correlation between Tasman Sea SST's and eastern rainfall has appeared in research papers before).
Ken.
Hi all.
A few storms along the Murray this evening forming along an odd looking dryline, the moisture appears south of a dryline extending northwest to southeast just north of the Murray River, moisture appears to be extending from northern Vic. north of dryline appears very dry through the interior of southwest NSW....Clyve H
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Hi Ken....The set-up is unusual for inland northern Vic and southwest NSW with sufficient moisture, its a barotropic condition by the looks of it, the surface heating and a low level trough are enough to overcome the stability of mid level high. Clyve H
----- Original Message ----- From: Ken Kato To: Austpacwx Sent: Sunday, November 01, 2009 10:55 PM
Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Odd 'dryline' Rivirina NSW
Hi Clyve,
There's a distinct low to midlevel high (although not extending down to the surface) over SW NSW north of the storms that's showing up on the forecast fields for all models - see attached 700hpa height/wind field from LAPS for 12z tonight:
Hi all.
Further to these storms along the Murray a time lapse of the sat pic shows a weird anticyclonic rotation over southwest NSW and northern Vic in the motion of the cloud elements and movement of the storms...regards Clyve H
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I was thinking along the same lines too Clyve, albeit maybe a bit away from the centre of the high.
Before I forget and just out of interest's sake, I noticed ensembled forecasts were suggesting fairly high probabilities ( >80%) of a big area of very hot temps possibly spreading across parts of southern Oz again around the 2nd week of this month... although the NCEP one (which has a belt of 850T >2 standard deviations above mean) is a bit less optimistic for the strongest heat to reach Vic. Still early days though, so still room for optimism that it may not be as bad or widespread.
Ken.
Hi Ken....The set-up is unusual for inland northern Vic and southwest NSW with sufficient moisture, its a barotropic condition by the looks of it, the surface heating and a low level trough are enough to overcome the stability of mid level high. Clyve H
----- Original Message ----- From: Ken Kato To: Austpacwx Sent: Sunday, November 01, 2009 10:55 PM
Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Odd 'dryline' Rivirina NSW
Hi Clyve,
There's a distinct low to midlevel high (although not extending down to the surface) over SW NSW north of the storms that's showing up on the forecast fields for all models - see attached 700hpa height/wind field from LAPS for 12z tonight:
Ken.
Hi all.
Further to these storms along the Murray a time lapse of the sat pic shows a weird anticyclonic rotation over southwest NSW and northern Vic in the motion of the cloud elements and movement of the storms...regards Clyve H
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I chased these storms yesterday afternoon. They started off as two small cells aligned NNE SSWsomewhere between Braidwood and Bungendore shortly after 3 pm. The more southerly of these started to propogate cells to NW about 4.30 pm, with this storm growth eventually reaching Lake George about 6.45 pm. The DPs in the Cooma - Canberra - Braidwood area were a reasonable 14 in the afternoon, and the updrafts seem to grow on the NW side of storms, so I guess as the storms cycled they were searching out warm moist air to the NW, and this notion, combined with outflow boundaries, may explain the way they grew.
Hi all, We had an interesting event in the ACT region this afternoon following a "teasing" series of storms yesterday.Yesterday(Saturday) afternoon (and Friday PM too)the storms formed along the southern end of the Brindabellas and moved northward along the Range under the guidance of mid level southerly winds.This afternoon by contrast the storm line was along the Ranges east of the ACT with some very intense looking cells to the south and southeast of Queanbeyan,they were moving northeasterly.There was absolutely no convective cloud over the Brindabellas .We could hear the thunder and saw some lightning after sunset before the storms dissipated.Yesterday the winds were northeasterly, today they became moderate westerly this afternoon before a later easterly surge after sunset. I suspect that a 'dryline' to our east was the trigger as the moderate rather dry (DP12) was converging with a moister flow from the Coast to our east.Once the easterly reached us
the storms rapidly weakend.I have been watching the Riverina storms moving east but doubt that they will last long enough to reach Canberra in the early morning hours.By the way the October rainfall here was 80.2 mm for the month almost double the usual 51mm. Canberra A/P was blow average. Gavin, Gilmore ACT
________________________________ From: mes...@iprimus.com.au To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com Subject: Re: [austpacwx] Odd 'dryline' Rivirina NSW Date: Sun, 1 Nov 2009 22:01:42 +1100
Hi Ken I am sort of interested in the trough over the Bight and the baroclinic cloud band dribbling across southern Vic, the BOM here show little interest in this system for Vic in regards to rainfall, however the trough deepened rapidly tonight and then forms a V/Max near Kangaroo island , there is sufficient moisture in the mid levels I think it will only take a slightly more easterly track of this low to generate better rain prospects for Vic. C
----- Original Message ----- >From: Ken Kato >To: Austpacwx >Sent: Sunday, November 01, 2009 9:41 PM >Subject: RE: [austpacwx] Odd 'dryline' Rivirina NSW
>It's actually interesting how well those storms themselves are aligned with the Murray. > >Speaking of NSW, it's been looking like deja vu for another possible rain event later this week for E NSW and possibly SE QLD. >It looks similar to last week in terms of an amplifying upper trough cutting off (or at least almost) over the area. Doesn't currently look as spectacular as last week's event though. The W Tasman Sea is still very warm since start of spring so leads me to wonder if it's playing a role in the recent rains in the area (the correlation between Tasman Sea SST's and eastern rainfall has appeared in research papers before). > >Ken. > >________________________________
>Hi all. >A few storms along the Murray this evening forming along an odd looking dryline, the moisture appears south of a dryline extending northwest to southeast just north of the Murray River, moisture appears to be extending from northern Vic. north of dryline appears very dry through the interior of southwest NSW....Clyve H >-- >You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "austpacwx" group. >To post to this group, send email to austpacwx@googlegroups.com. >To unsubscribe from this group, send email to austpacwx+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com. >For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/austpacwx?hl=en.
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Nice pics. I particularly like the 3rd one in that album with the
circuit of the lightning trigger. It is basic but it should work. I
note the file name is 'MyworkingLightningTrigger' so I guess you have
used it and proven this.
I built one that contained IC's but so far the storms I have pointed it
at haven't produced any CG's during the day time.
Regards,
ShaneE
Matters Family wrote:
Hi
all,
Soz, I am a bit late, but I have 2 pics of the storm
near Bacchus Marsh last Thurs.
I can attest to
that -
yesterday's anvils in the northeast were behaving in a similar manner
to
yesterday and being dragged off to the northeast, but nothing really
got going
until it had crossed the border or was up on the eastern and
northeastern ranges.....there
were some nice turkeys about and a nice sunset....
A few
storms along the Murray this evening forming along an odd looking
dryline, the
moisture appears south of a dryline extending northwest to southeast
just north
of the Murray River, moisture appears to be extending from northern
Vic. north
of dryline appears very dry through the interior of southwest
NSW....Clyve H
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To post to this
nice pics, the colour, style and positioning of the
copywright could do with a bit of work though.
as for the circuit yer would prolly work but way too slow on 2 fronts,
the ldr is comparativly speaking very slow reacting compared to a good
photo transistor and the relay the same compared to a good solid state
relay. with a lot of cameras the main slowdown is in the reaction time
from when the circuit connection is made to when the camera actually
takes the pic, theres good chance of it picking up long lived multiple
strokers and big +ve ground clamping megabolts but the single quick
strikers are a major challenge for even the best triggers and fastest cameras.
> Nice pics. I particularly like the 3rd one in that album with the > circuit of the lightning trigger. It is basic but it should work. I > note the file name is 'MyworkingLightningTrigger' so I guess you have > used it and proven this.
> I built one that contained IC's but so far the storms I have pointed > it at haven't produced any CG's during the day time.
> Regards,
> ShaneE
> Matters Family wrote:
>> Hi all,
>> Soz, I am a bit late, but I have 2 pics of the storm near >> Bacchus Marsh last Thurs.
My trigger uses a Photo Darlington Transistor and a solid state relay,
but even with those it can't pick up the quick bolts which are usually
the first bolts that a storm will put out prior to maturity.
There is a sensitivity issue with mine, I have been playing around with
that but so far haven't had any daytime bolts to test it on. Hopefully
today will change that, though I will have to go west.
nice pics, the colour, style and positioning of the
copywright could do with a bit of work though.
as for the circuit yer would prolly work but way too slow on 2 fronts,
the ldr is comparativly speaking very slow reacting compared to a good
photo transistor and the relay the same compared to a good solid state
relay. with a lot of cameras the main slowdown is in the reaction time
from when the circuit connection is made to when the camera actually
takes the pic, theres good chance of it picking up long lived multiple
strokers and big +ve ground clamping megabolts but the single quick
strikers are a major challenge for even the best triggers and fastest
cameras.
regards
richard
Shane Ekerbicer wrote:
Hi Peter,
Nice pics. I particularly like the 3rd one in that album with the
circuit of the lightning trigger. It is basic but it should work. I
note the file name is 'MyworkingLightningTrigger' so I guess you have
used it and proven this.
I built one that contained IC's but so far the storms I have pointed it
at haven't produced any CG's during the day time.
Regards,
ShaneE
Matters Family wrote:
Hi
all,
Soz, I am a bit late, but I have 2 pics of the storm
near Bacchus Marsh last Thurs.
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> My trigger uses a Photo Darlington Transistor and a solid state relay, > but even with those it can't pick up the quick bolts which are usually > the first bolts that a storm will put out prior to maturity.
> There is a sensitivity issue with mine, I have been playing around > with that but so far haven't had any daytime bolts to test it on. > Hopefully today will change that, though I will have to go west.
> Richard Modistach wrote:
>> nice pics, the colour, style and positioning of the
>> copywright could do with a bit of work though.
>> as for the circuit yer would prolly work but way too slow on 2 fronts,
>> the ldr is comparativly speaking very slow reacting compared to a good
>> photo transistor and the relay the same compared to a good solid state
>> relay. with a lot of cameras the main slowdown is in the reaction time
>> from when the circuit connection is made to when the camera actually
>> takes the pic, theres good chance of it picking up long lived multiple
>> strokers and big +ve ground clamping megabolts but the single quick
>> strikers are a major challenge for even the best triggers and fastest >> cameras.
>> regards
>> richard
>> Shane Ekerbicer wrote:
>>> Hi Peter,
>>> Nice pics. I particularly like the 3rd one in that album with the >>> circuit of the lightning trigger. It is basic but it should work. I >>> note the file name is 'MyworkingLightningTrigger' so I guess you >>> have used it and proven this.
>>> I built one that contained IC's but so far the storms I have pointed >>> it at haven't produced any CG's during the day time.
>>> Regards,
>>> ShaneE
>>> Matters Family wrote:
>>>> Hi all,
>>>> Soz, I am a bit late, but I have 2 pics of the storm near >>>> Bacchus Marsh last Thurs.
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