Hi all. Real winter has arrived in the central ranges Vic....Bright sunshine 50kph souwester 6c and a wind chill of minus 5c....The mean maximum for Trentham is 7c in Jully and the mean Min is 2c...and now for 5 weeks of proper cold....regards Clyve H
Clyve, just thought you might be interested to know of one of those high thickness/snow scenarios for NE NSW tonight. I remember you mentioning this in a previous post. Models have the 540 line barely reaching the central NSW tablelands before completely leaving the area by around midnight. This is despite the categorical precip forecasts suggesting a bit of snow much further north on the NE NSW tablelands right up to around 10am next morning (not to mention < 0C temps at 850hpa reaching up to near the Qld/NSW border also). Forecast soundings for that area appear to suggest the reason for this - a shallow layer of cold moist air in the lowest 1000-2000ft then a really massive inversion/warm air above it right up to around 18,000ft. Even though there's pretty cold air down low, this layer looks extremely shallow and not enough to lower thicknesses below 540.
I also heard an unconfirmed report of snow on the central NSW tablelands this morning even though the 540 line barely reaches that area according to LAPS analysis. The above reason might explain this one as well.
Ken.
From: mes...@iprimus.com.au To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com Subject: [austpacwx] Winter is here Date: Fri, 3 Jul 2009 12:24:54 +1000
Hi all. Real winter has arrived in the central ranges Vic....Bright sunshine 50kph souwester 6c and a wind chill of minus 5c....The mean maximum for Trentham is 7c in Jully and the mean Min is 2c...and now for 5 weeks of proper cold....regards Clyve H
Hi Ken...
On that note of snow there has been a lot of snow in NZ overnight and plenty of road ice (both islands) A deep low is located across the island, this seems to be a cold pool area however some very cold low level air is spreading across the south island from the southeast and north of an intense high near Antarctica.
I have occasionally come across reports from England of snow and blizzards with not very low 500hpa thickness values but very cold air from the surface to around 700hpa (Arctic outbreak)...Clyve H
----- Original Message ----- From: Ken Kato To: Austpacwx Sent: Friday, July 03, 2009 2:41 PM
Subject: [austpacwx] Re: Winter is here
Clyve, just thought you might be interested to know of one of those high thickness/snow scenarios for NE NSW tonight. I remember you mentioning this in a previous post. Models have the 540 line barely reaching the central NSW tablelands before completely leaving the area by around midnight. This is despite the categorical precip forecasts suggesting a bit of snow much further north on the NE NSW tablelands right up to around 10am next morning (not to mention < 0C temps at 850hpa reaching up to near the Qld/NSW border also). Forecast soundings for that area appear to suggest the reason for this - a shallow layer of cold moist air in the lowest 1000-2000ft then a really massive inversion/warm air above it right up to around 18,000ft. Even though there's pretty cold air down low, this layer looks extremely shallow and not enough to lower thicknesses below 540.
I also heard an unconfirmed report of snow on the central NSW tablelands this morning even though the 540 line barely reaches that area according to LAPS analysis. The above reason might explain this one as well.
Ken.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---
From: mes...@iprimus.com.au
To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com
Subject: [austpacwx] Winter is here
Date: Fri, 3 Jul 2009 12:24:54 +1000
Hi all.
Real winter has arrived in the central ranges Vic....Bright sunshine 50kph souwester 6c and a wind chill of minus 5c....The mean maximum for Trentham is 7c in Jully and the mean Min is 2c...and now for 5 weeks of proper cold....regards Clyve H
I have a partially obstructed view from here of the Blue Mountains west of Sydney and it doesn't look too much like anything there except on the western side, just some fairly shallow cumulus with virga or showers. Usually I can tell if there's snow in it as the clouds then have a different look altogether..but maybe I've got imaginitis. A fair bit of passing cumulus more generally but nothing above that until you get to probably 35000 feet (cirrostratus). Very large storm clouds 200km or so out to sea.
Very windy here now with gusts up to 63km, no doubt stronger nearer the coast. Wind chill down to 4° which is pretty low for Sydney.
----- Original Message ----- From: Ken Kato To: Austpacwx Sent: Friday, July 03, 2009 2:41 PM
Subject: [austpacwx] Re: Winter is here
Clyve, just thought you might be interested to know of one of those high thickness/snow scenarios for NE NSW tonight. I remember you mentioning this in a previous post. Models have the 540 line barely reaching the central NSW tablelands before completely leaving the area by around midnight. This is despite the categorical precip forecasts suggesting a bit of snow much further north on the NE NSW tablelands right up to around 10am next morning (not to mention < 0C temps at 850hpa reaching up to near the Qld/NSW border also). Forecast soundings for that area appear to suggest the reason for this - a shallow layer of cold moist air in the lowest 1000-2000ft then a really massive inversion/warm air above it right up to around 18,000ft. Even though there's pretty cold air down low, this layer looks extremely shallow and not enough to lower thicknesses below 540.
I also heard an unconfirmed report of snow on the central NSW tablelands this morning even though the 540 line barely reaches that area according to LAPS analysis. The above reason might explain this one as well.
Ken.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---
From: mes...@iprimus.com.au
To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com
Subject: [austpacwx] Winter is here
Date: Fri, 3 Jul 2009 12:24:54 +1000
Hi all.
Real winter has arrived in the central ranges Vic....Bright sunshine 50kph souwester 6c and a wind chill of minus 5c....The mean maximum for Trentham is 7c in Jully and the mean Min is 2c...and now for 5 weeks of proper cold....regards Clyve H
----- Original Message ----- From: Keith Barnett To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com Sent: Friday, July 03, 2009 3:00 PM Subject: [austpacwx] Re: Winter is here
I have a partially obstructed view from here of the Blue Mountains west of Sydney and it doesn't look too much like anything there except on the western side, just some fairly shallow cumulus with virga or showers. Usually I can tell if there's snow in it as the clouds then have a different look altogether..but maybe I've got imaginitis. A fair bit of passing cumulus more generally but nothing above that until you get to probably 35000 feet (cirrostratus). Very large storm clouds 200km or so out to sea.
Very windy here now with gusts up to 63km, no doubt stronger nearer the coast. Wind chill down to 4° which is pretty low for Sydney.
Funny you mention that Clyve. I happened to be checking out that very area just yesterday and noticed the very cold air extending up from the SE. I saw thicknesses near 520 with 850hpa temps below -7. Categorical precip forecasts were going for a big area of snow down to sea level just near the southern coast of the south island.
Speaking of blizzards, I've heard a lot about a type of 'cold air damming' effect that often happens in the US and Europe where lots of cold moist air gets trapped under a big inversion and causes unusually long lived icestorms, heavy snow, etc. It's easily visible on soundings. Not too sure about the exact mechanics of it though.
Ken.
From: mes...@iprimus.com.au To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com Subject: [austpacwx] Re: Winter is here Date: Fri, 3 Jul 2009 14:53:11 +1000
Hi Ken... On that note of snow there has been a lot of snow in NZ overnight and plenty of road ice (both islands) A deep low is located across the island, this seems to be a cold pool area however some very cold low level air is spreading across the south island from the southeast and north of an intense high near Antarctica. I have occasionally come across reports from England of snow and blizzards with not very low 500hpa thickness values but very cold air from the surface to around 700hpa (Arctic outbreak)...Clyve H
Snow fell around Lithgow according to the TV News tonight (Friday) seemed to be about half an inch on the ground.
Gavin
From: r81n-...@bigpond.net.au
To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com
Subject: [austpacwx] Re: Winter is here
Date: Fri, 3 Jul 2009 15:00:58 +1000
I have a partially obstructed view from here of the Blue Mountains west of Sydney and it doesn't look too much like anything there except on the western side, just some fairly shallow cumulus with virga or showers. Usually I can tell if there's snow in it as the clouds then have a different look altogether..but maybe I've got imaginitis. A fair bit of passing cumulus more generally but nothing above that until you get to probably 35000 feet (cirrostratus). Very large storm clouds 200km or so out to sea.
Very windy here now with gusts up to 63km, no doubt stronger nearer the coast. Wind chill down to 4° which is pretty low for Sydney.
To: Austpacwx Sent: Friday, July 03, 2009 2:41 PM
Subject: [austpacwx] Re: Winter is here
Clyve, just thought you might be interested to know of one of those high thickness/snow scenarios for NE NSW tonight. I remember you mentioning this in a previous post. Models have the 540 line barely reaching the central NSW tablelands before completely leaving the area by around midnight. This is despite the categorical precip forecasts suggesting a bit of snow much further north on the NE NSW tablelands right up to around 10am next morning (not to mention < 0C temps at 850hpa reaching up to near the Qld/NSW border also). Forecast soundings for that area appear to suggest the reason for this - a shallow layer of cold moist air in the lowest 1000-2000ft then a really massive inversion/warm air above it right up to around 18,000ft. Even though there's pretty cold air down low, this layer looks extremely shallow and not enough to lower thicknesses below 540.
I also heard an unconfirmed report of snow on the central NSW tablelands this morning even though the 540 line barely reaches that area according to LAPS analysis. The above reason might explain this one as well.
Ken.
From: mes...@iprimus.com.au
To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com
Subject: [austpacwx] Winter is here
Date: Fri, 3 Jul 2009 12:24:54 +1000
Hi all.
Real winter has arrived in the central ranges Vic....Bright sunshine 50kph souwester 6c and a wind chill of minus 5c....The mean maximum for Trentham is 7c in Jully and the mean Min is 2c...and now for 5 weeks of proper cold....regards Clyve H
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