Hi all, Since it seems so quiet on the local scene...Though it looks like SE Australia is getting some winter from my vantage point in Ayr.Why is it so quet down there Clyve, thought you would have been on the list by now.
Thought this report from MIchael Padua in the Philippines might be of interest. Looks like quite an active season up there as this is the second Tropical Storm in that region in the last three days. Dagupan 220 km NW of Manila reported a 144 km /hr Wind gust at 10 am Phil Time this morning as the STS Cosme passed over Lyngayan Gulf, seems headed for my wife's home provence, La Union, tonight before heading rapidly towards Japan. In over 30 years of watching tropical cyclones in the NW Pacific I can not recall a hit on the west coast of Luzon by a Storm out of the South China Sea in May...Interesting times ahead this season?
Gavin
Ayr, Nth Qld.
To: typhoon2000asiapac_storml...@yahoogroups.com; typhoon2000ph_storml...@yahoogroups.com From: storml...@typhoon2000.ph Date: Sat, 17 May 2008 07:31:01 +0800 Subject: TS HALONG (COSME) approaching Western Luzon... [Update #006]
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SAT 17 MAY 2008 Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 006 Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
TROPICAL STORM HALONG (COSME) INCHING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF ZAMBALES AND NORTHERN PANGASINAN...WINDS NOW CLOCKED AT 95 KM/HR...STORM WARNING SIGNAL NUMBER TWO (2) NOW HOISTED.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: HALONG is expected to continue intensifying as it moves closer to the Western Coast of Luzon. It shall make landfall over Ilocos Sur-Ilocos Norte area around 2 AM tomorrow morning (Sunday), reaching forecast peak intensity of 110 km/hr. The 2 to 5-day long range forecast shows the storm crossing the NW tip of Northern Luzon passing thru Balintang Channel & Calayan Island tomorrow morning. It shall then pass close to the South of Batanes tomorrow afternoon. By early Monday morning, HALONG shall reach Typhoon strength as it begins Extratropical transition. The system shall be Extratropical before moving inland across Honshu, Japan - just east of Tokyo on Tuesday morning, May 20th.
+ EFFECTS: HALONG's over-all circulation has slightly shrunked over the South China Sea, near the Coast of Zambales. Its inner rain bands con- tinues to spread across the coastal areas of Zambales & Northern Panga- sinan - bringing moderate to heavy rains w/ strong winds not exceeding 85 km/hr today. Deteriorating weather conditions can be expected late today along the Provinces of Ilocos, La Union, Pangasinan & Benguet as HALONG make its closest approach. Its outer rain bands, on the other hand, continues to affect Western Luzon including Metro Manila & Mindoro. These bands will continue to bring moderate to sometimes heavy rains & strong winds not exceeding 60 km/hr today. People living in low-lying areas must seek higher grounds for possible flooding due to the antici- pated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be fully implemented at this time.
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Intensified Southwest (SW) Monsoon which is locally induced by HALONG continues to affect Palawan, Western Vi- sayas including Boracay Island Resort & Southern Tagalog Provinces.
The monsoon-affected areas will have cloudy skies with light to mode- rate rains & SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr today. Landslides,
mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain /volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the
affected areas. Meanwhile, big sea waves or surges generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-front areas of the abovemen- tioned areas. Meanwhile, the rest of the Philippines is under the active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough), which will bring scattered rains and thunderstorms most especially in the afternoon or evening.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours! ___________________________________________________________________________ __
TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 17 MAY LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 15.6º N...LONGITUDE 118.6º E DISTANCE 1: 155 KM (83 NM) WNW OF IBA, ZAMBALES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 185 KM (100 NM) WSW OF DAGUPAN CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 215 KM (115 NM) SW OF SAN FERNANDO, LA UNION, PH DISTANCE 4: 285 KM (155 NM) NW OF MANILA, PH
DISTANCE 5: 295 KM (160 NM) SSW OF VIGAN, ILOCOS SUR, PH MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER PEAK WIND GUSTS: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS) SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 985 MILLIBARS (hPa) FORECAST MOVEMENT: NE @ 11 KPH (06 KTS) GENERAL DIRECTION: ILOCOS PROVINCES STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 740 KM (400 NM)/LARGE MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 15 FEET (4.5 METERS) VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME SAT MAY 17 TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 96 HOURS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: #02 - ZAMBALES, TARLAC, PANGASINAN, LA UNION, BENGUET & ILOCOS SUR. #01 - METRO MANILA, BATAAN, BULACAN, PAMPANGA, NUEVA ECIJA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, IFUGAO, KALINGA, MT. PROVINCE, ABRA, QUIRINO, QUEZON, AURORA, ILOCOS NORTE, ISABELA, CAGAYAN, CAVITE, BATANGAS, LAGUNA, RIZAL, & LUBANG IS.
2 AM (18 GMT) 18 MAY: 18.1N 120.6E / 110-140 KPH / NE @ 22 KPH 2 AM (18 GMT) 19 MAY: 21.9N 125.0E / 120-150 KPH / NE @ 50 KPH 2 AM (18 GMT) 20 MAY: 29.7N 133.5E / 100-130 KPH / NNE @ 68 KPH
REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 17 MAY POSITION: 15.2N 118.3E. ^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HALONG) HAS INTENSIFIED GRADUALLY OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AS MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUT- FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS SHOWN EXCELLENT CONSOLIDATION, HOWEVER PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO INHIBIT RAPID INTENSIFICATION...(more)
>> HALONG {pronounced: ha~long}, meaning: A famous picturesque place
in Viet Nam which was claimed heritage by UNESCO, lies in the Bacbo Gulf and consists of more than 1,000 isles, most of them are lime- stone islands. Name contributed by: Vietnam. ___________________________________________________________________________ __
PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
> 4 AM (20
GMT) 17 MAY: 15.4N 118.4E / NE @ 15 KPH / 95 kph
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml ___________________________________________________________________________ __
source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/) ___________________________________________________________________________ _______________
NOTES:
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near its center. ___________________________________________________________________________ _______________
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more: Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN) Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00. ___________________________________________________________________________ _______________
For the complete details on TS HALONG (COSME/05W)...go visit
Hi Gavin.....Plenty of weather down here actually buckets of weather what a day in the central ranges !....However a very busy day with the Vic ASWA meeting....Woke at 0530 overnight very windy and rain periods around 2am temp 8c dropped to 4c in about 10 minutes, around 6am sleet started to fall with the temp around 3.5c (Trentham 700M snow fell in Trentham from about 0830 to 1030 did not settle). Drove to Woodend and picked up Jane and Max, started sleeting in Woodend around 7.20am temp 4.5c, a bit surprised to see sleet at this temp. Drove over the Woodend to Mt Macedon road sleet turned to snow at about 700M then at higher levels snow settling at 850M...At 900M buckets of snow and increasingly dangerous roads we got off the mountain as fast as possible the little Honda going sideways on ice....After the ASWA meet headed back to Woodend then changed to Jane's 4 wheel drive back up to Mt Macedon rapid thawing around 1430 hrs but still 6 to 8cm on the ground snow depths got to about 10/12cm at around 1030....After a great ASWA meeting and plenty of weather its was a great day for a weather nut....best regards Clyve H
----- Original Message ----- From: Gavin O'Brien To: wx, aust pac Sent: Saturday, May 17, 2008 4:32 PM Subject: [austpacwx] FW: TS HALONG (COSME) approaching Western Luzon... [Update #006]
Hi all, Since it seems so quiet on the local scene...Though it looks like SE Australia is getting some winter from my vantage point in Ayr.Why is it so quet down there Clyve, thought you would have been on the list by now.
Thought this report from MIchael Padua in the Philippines might be of interest. Looks like quite an active season up there as this is the second Tropical Storm in that region in the last three days. Dagupan 220 km NW of Manila reported a 144 km /hr Wind gust at 10 am Phil Time this morning as the STS Cosme passed over Lyngayan Gulf, seems headed for my wife's home provence, La Union, tonight before heading rapidly towards Japan. In over 30 years of watching tropical cyclones in the NW Pacific I can not recall a hit on the west coast of Luzon by a Storm out of the South China Sea in May...Interesting times ahead this season?
Gavin
Ayr, Nth Qld.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------- - To: typhoon2000asiapac_storml...@yahoogroups.com; typhoon2000ph_storml...@yahoogroups.com From: storml...@typhoon2000.ph Date: Sat, 17 May 2008 07:31:01 +0800 Subject: TS HALONG (COSME) approaching Western Luzon... [Update #006]
Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #006 Name: TROPICAL STORM HALONG [COSME/05W/0804] Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SAT 17 MAY 2008 Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 006 Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
TROPICAL STORM HALONG (COSME) INCHING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF ZAMBALES AND NORTHERN PANGASINAN...WINDS NOW CLOCKED AT 95 KM/HR...STORM WARNING SIGNAL NUMBER TWO (2) NOW HOISTED.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: HALONG is expected to continue intensifying as it moves closer to the Western Coast of Luzon. It shall make landfall over Ilocos Sur-Ilocos Norte area around 2 AM tomorrow morning (Sunday), reaching forecast peak intensity of 110 km/hr. The 2 to 5-day long range forecast shows the storm crossing the NW tip of Northern Luzon passing thru Balintang Channel & Calayan Island tomorrow morning. It shall then pass close to the South of Batanes tomorrow afternoon. By early Monday morning, HALONG shall reach Typhoon strength as it begins Extratropical transition. The system shall be Extratropical before moving inland across Honshu, Japan - just east of Tokyo on Tuesday morning, May 20th.
+ EFFECTS: HALONG's over-all circulation has slightly shrunked over the South China Sea, near the Coast of Zambales. Its inner rain bands con- tinues to spread across the coastal areas of Zambales & Northern Panga- sinan - bringing moderate to heavy rains w/ strong winds not exceeding 85 km/hr today. Deteriorating weather conditions can be expected late today along the Provinces of Ilocos, La Union, Pangasinan & Benguet as HALONG make its closest approach. Its outer rain bands, on the other hand, continues to affect Western Luzon including Metro Manila & Mindoro. These bands will continue to bring moderate to sometimes heavy rains & strong winds not exceeding 60 km/hr today. People living in low-lying areas must seek higher grounds for possible flooding due to the antici- pated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be fully implemented at this time.
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Intensified Southwest (SW) Monsoon which is locally induced by HALONG continues to affect Palawan, Western Vi- sayas including Boracay Island Resort & Southern Tagalog Provinces. The monsoon-affected areas will have cloudy skies with light to mode- rate rains & SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr today. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain /volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas. Meanwhile, big sea waves or surges generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-front areas of the abovemen- tioned areas. Meanwhile, the rest of the Philippines is under the active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough), which will bring scattered rains and thunderstorms most especially in the afternoon or evening.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours! ___________________________________________________________________________ __
TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 17 MAY LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 15.6º N...LONGITUDE 118.6º E DISTANCE 1: 155 KM (83 NM) WNW OF IBA, ZAMBALES, PH DISTANCE 2: 185 KM (100 NM) WSW OF DAGUPAN CITY, PH DISTANCE 3: 215 KM (115 NM) SW OF SAN FERNANDO, LA UNION, PH DISTANCE 4: 285 KM (155 NM) NW OF MANILA, PH DISTANCE 5: 295 KM (160 NM) SSW OF VIGAN, ILOCOS SUR, PH MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER PEAK WIND GUSTS: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS) SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 985 MILLIBARS (hPa) FORECAST MOVEMENT: NE @ 11 KPH (06 KTS) GENERAL DIRECTION: ILOCOS PROVINCES STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 740 KM (400 NM)/LARGE MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 15 FEET (4.5 METERS) VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME SAT MAY 17 TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 96 HOURS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: #02 - ZAMBALES, TARLAC, PANGASINAN, LA UNION, BENGUET & ILOCOS SUR. #01 - METRO MANILA, BATAAN, BULACAN, PAMPANGA, NUEVA ECIJA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, IFUGAO, KALINGA, MT. PROVINCE, ABRA, QUIRINO, QUEZON, AURORA, ILOCOS NORTE, ISABELA, CAGAYAN, CAVITE, BATANGAS, LAGUNA, RIZAL, & LUBANG IS.
REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 17 MAY POSITION: 15.2N 118.3E. ^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HALONG) HAS INTENSIFIED GRADUALLY OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AS MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUT- FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS SHOWN EXCELLENT CONSOLIDATION, HOWEVER PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO INHIBIT RAPID INTENSIFICATION...(more)
>> HALONG {pronounced: ha~long}, meaning: A famous picturesque place in Viet Nam which was claimed heritage by UNESCO, lies in the Bacbo Gulf and consists of more than 1,000 isles, most of them are lime- stone islands. Name contributed by: Vietnam. ___________________________________________________________________________ __
PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): > 4 AM (20 GMT) 17 MAY: 15.4N 118.4E / NE @ 15 KPH / 95 kph
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml ___________________________________________________________________________ __
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/) ___________________________________________________________________________ _______________
NOTES:
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near its center. ___________________________________________________________________________ _______________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
Yeah great day, rainfall started at my place around 11pm last night, remained light rain throughout the night then easing up around 7am.
Headed for Doncaster for the aswa meet at 7am and it rained the whole way there. Great meeting as usual, followed by a 45 min drive up to Mount Donna Buang where I met up with Lennie and Greg S from SA.
About 8cm on arrival with light snow however snow really started bucketing down shortly after and the thickness on the ground started to build quickly. Stayed up there for about 3 hours, enjoyed it thoroughly.
Was joined by Stormchasers Jane G and Deano but the conditions were becoming wild quickly. Was like a blizzard! Never seen snow as intense as it was up there. I took video but the video malfunctioned with a Dew Detect error so am hoping I can salvage the video as it shows just how intense it was.
We left the mountain at 5.05pm, with approx. 20cm of snow on the ground meaning a fall of ~12cm in 3 hours.
Took a few pics but it was difficult in blizzard-like conditions trying to keep the camera out of harms way. Will process the pics tomorrow.
Came home from the venture to find 22mm in the gauge! Great day all round!
> Hi Gavin.....Plenty of weather down here actually buckets of > weather what a day in the central ranges !....However a very busy > day with the Vic ASWA meeting....Woke at 0530 overnight very windy > and rain periods around 2am temp 8c dropped to 4c in about 10 > minutes, around 6am sleet started to fall with the temp around 3.5c > (Trentham 700M snow fell in Trentham from about 0830 to 1030 did > not settle). Drove to Woodend and picked up Jane and Max, started > sleeting in Woodend around 7.20am temp 4.5c, a bit surprised to see > sleet at this temp. Drove over the Woodend to Mt Macedon road sleet > turned to snow at about 700M then at higher levels snow settling at > 850M...At 900M buckets of snow and increasingly dangerous roads we > got off the mountain as fast as possible the little Honda going > sideways on ice....After the ASWA meet headed back to Woodend then > changed to Jane's 4 wheel drive back up to Mt Macedon rapid thawing > around 1430 hrs but still 6 to 8cm on the ground snow depths got to > about 10/12cm at around 1030....After a great ASWA meeting and > plenty of weather its was a great day for a weather nut....best > regards Clyve H > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Gavin O'Brien > To: wx, aust pac > Sent: Saturday, May 17, 2008 4:32 PM > Subject: [austpacwx] FW: TS HALONG (COSME) approaching Western > Luzon... [Update #006]
> Hi all, > Since it seems so quiet on the local scene...Though it looks like > SE Australia is getting some winter from my vantage point in > Ayr.Why is it so quet down there Clyve, thought you would have been > on the list by now.
> Thought this report from MIchael Padua in the Philippines might be > of interest. Looks like quite an active season up there as this is > the second Tropical Storm in that region in the last three days. > Dagupan 220 km NW of Manila reported a 144 km /hr Wind gust at 10 > am Phil Time this morning as the STS Cosme passed over Lyngayan > Gulf, seems headed for my wife's home provence, La Union, tonight > before heading rapidly towards Japan. In over 30 years of watching > tropical cyclones in the NW Pacific I can not recall a hit on the > west coast of Luzon by a Storm out of the South China Sea in > May...Interesting times ahead this season?
> Gavin
> Ayr, > Nth Qld.
> To: typhoon2000asiapac_storml...@yahoogroups.com; > typhoon2000ph_storml...@yahoogroups.com > From: storml...@typhoon2000.ph > Date: Sat, 17 May 2008 07:31:01 +0800 > Subject: TS HALONG (COSME) approaching Western Luzon... [Update #006]
> Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #006 > Name: TROPICAL STORM HALONG [COSME/05W/0804] > Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SAT 17 MAY 2008 > Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 006 > Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or > bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only. > ______________________________________________________________________ > _______
> TROPICAL STORM HALONG (COSME) INCHING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF ZAMBALES > AND NORTHERN PANGASINAN...WINDS NOW CLOCKED AT 95 KM/HR...STORM > WARNING > SIGNAL NUMBER TWO (2) NOW HOISTED.
> + FORECAST OUTLOOK: HALONG is expected to continue intensifying as it > moves closer to the Western Coast of Luzon. It shall make landfall > over > Ilocos Sur-Ilocos Norte area around 2 AM tomorrow morning (Sunday), > reaching forecast peak intensity of 110 km/hr. The 2 to 5-day long > range > forecast shows the storm crossing the NW tip of Northern Luzon passing > thru Balintang Channel & Calayan Island tomorrow morning. It shall > then > pass close to the South of Batanes tomorrow afternoon. By early Monday > morning, HALONG shall reach Typhoon strength as it begins > Extratropical > transition. The system shall be Extratropical before moving inland > across > Honshu, Japan - just east of Tokyo on Tuesday morning, May 20th.
> + EFFECTS: HALONG's over-all circulation has slightly shrunked over > the > South China Sea, near the Coast of Zambales. Its inner rain bands con- > tinues to spread across the coastal areas of Zambales & Northern > Panga- > sinan - bringing moderate to heavy rains w/ strong winds not exceeding > 85 km/hr today. Deteriorating weather conditions can be expected late > today along the Provinces of Ilocos, La Union, Pangasinan & Benguet as > HALONG make its closest approach. Its outer rain bands, on the other > hand, continues to affect Western Luzon including Metro Manila & > Mindoro. > These bands will continue to bring moderate to sometimes heavy rains & > strong winds not exceeding 60 km/hr today. People living in low-lying > areas must seek higher grounds for possible flooding due to the > antici- > pated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures > must be fully implemented at this time.
> + CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Intensified Southwest (SW) Monsoon which > is locally induced by HALONG continues to affect Palawan, Western Vi- > sayas including Boracay Island Resort & Southern Tagalog Provinces. > The monsoon-affected areas will have cloudy skies with light to mode- > rate rains & SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr today. Landslides, > mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain > /volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the > affected areas. Meanwhile, big sea waves or surges generated by this > monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-front areas of the abovemen- > tioned areas. Meanwhile, the rest of the Philippines is under the > active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough), which will bring scattered rains and > thunderstorms most especially in the afternoon or evening.
> Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, > effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch > changes > every 06 to 12 hours! > ______________________________________________________________________ > _______
> TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 17 MAY > LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 15.6º N...LONGITUDE 118.6º E > DISTANCE 1: 155 KM (83 NM) WNW OF IBA, ZAMBALES, PH > DISTANCE 2: 185 KM (100 NM) WSW OF DAGUPAN CITY, PH > DISTANCE 3: 215 KM (115 NM) SW OF SAN FERNANDO, LA UNION, PH > DISTANCE 4: 285 KM (155 NM) NW OF MANILA, PH > DISTANCE 5: 295 KM (160 NM) SSW OF VIGAN, ILOCOS SUR, PH > MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER > PEAK WIND GUSTS: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS) > SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A > MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 985 MILLIBARS (hPa) > FORECAST MOVEMENT: NE @ 11 KPH (06 KTS) > GENERAL DIRECTION: ILOCOS PROVINCES > STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 740 KM (400 NM)/LARGE > MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 15 FEET (4.5 METERS) > VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME SAT MAY 17 > TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 96 HOURS LEAD
> PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: > #02 - ZAMBALES, TARLAC, PANGASINAN, LA UNION, BENGUET & ILOCOS SUR. > #01 - METRO MANILA, BATAAN, BULACAN, PAMPANGA, NUEVA ECIJA, NUEVA > VIZCAYA, IFUGAO, KALINGA, MT. PROVINCE, ABRA, QUIRINO, QUEZON, > AURORA, ILOCOS NORTE, ISABELA, CAGAYAN, CAVITE, BATANGAS, > LAGUNA, RIZAL, & LUBANG IS.
> REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 17 MAY POSITION: 15.2N 118.3E. > ^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HALONG) HAS INTENSIFIED GRADUALLY OVER > THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AS MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET > THE EFFECTS OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUT- > FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER > (LLCC) HAS SHOWN EXCELLENT CONSOLIDATION, HOWEVER PERSISTENT VERTICAL > WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO INHIBIT RAPID INTENSIFICATION...(more)
> >> HALONG {pronounced: ha~long}, meaning: A famous picturesque place > in Viet Nam which was claimed heritage by UNESCO, lies in the Bacbo > Gulf and consists of more than 1,000 isles, most of them are lime- > stone islands. Name contributed by: Vietnam. > ______________________________________________________________________ > _______
> PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): > > 4 AM (20 GMT) 17 MAY: 15.4N 118.4E / NE @ 15 KPH / 95 kph
> :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: > http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml > ______________________________________________________________________ > _______
Ta Clyve, Thanks for the update The Typhoon wacked into the Provence this evening with 100+/hr winds so hope to hear about the damages etc in due course, The trough has actually reached us here in Ayr with the Northwesterly most of the day turning Souherly tonight and quite cool! There were some showers around the area this afternoon but we missed them. We usually have persistent Southeasterers at this time of year so quite unusual here too. Gavin
From: mes...@iprimus.com.au To: austpacwx@googlegroups.com Subject: [austpacwx] Re: FW: TS HALONG (COSME) approaching Western Luzon... [Update #006] Date: Sat, 17 May 2008 20:26:56 +1000
Hi Gavin.....Plenty of weather down here actually buckets of weather what a day in the central ranges !....However a very busy day with the Vic ASWA meeting....Woke at 0530 overnight very windy and rain periods around 2am temp 8c dropped to 4c in about 10 minutes, around 6am sleet started to fall with the temp around 3.5c (Trentham 700M snow fell in Trentham from about 0830 to 1030 did not settle). Drove to Woodend and picked up Jane and Max, started sleeting in Woodend around 7.20am temp 4.5c, a bit surprised to see sleet at this temp. Drove over the Woodend to Mt Macedon road sleet turned to snow at about 700M then at higher levels snow settling at 850M...At 900M buckets of snow and increasingly dangerous roads we got off the mountain as fast as possible the little Honda going sideways on ice....After the ASWA meet headed back to Woodend then changed to Jane's 4 wheel drive back up to Mt Macedon rapid thawing around 1430 hrs but still 6 to 8cm on the ground snow depths got to about 10/12cm at around 1030....After a great ASWA meeting and plenty of weather its was a great day for a weather nut....best regards Clyve H
Gavin O'Brien To: wx, aust pac Sent: Saturday, May 17, 2008 4:32 PM Subject: [austpacwx] FW: TS HALONG (COSME) approaching Western Luzon... [Update #006]
Hi all, Since it seems so quiet on the local scene...Though it looks like SE Australia is getting some winter from my vantage point in Ayr.Why is it so quet down there Clyve, thought you would have been on the list by now.
Thought this report from MIchael Padua in the Philippines might be of interest. Looks like quite an active season up there as this is the second Tropical Storm in that region in the last three days. Dagupan 220 km NW of Manila reported a 144 km /hr Wind gust at 10 am Phil Time this morning as the STS Cosme passed over Lyngayan Gulf, seems headed for my wife's home provence, La Union, tonight before heading rapidly towards Japan. In over 30 years of watching tropical cyclones in the NW Pacific I can not recall a hit on the west coast of Luzon by a Storm out of the South China Sea in May...Interesting times ahead this season?
Gavin
Ayr, Nth Qld.
To: typhoon2000asiapac_storml...@yahoogroups.com; typhoon2000ph_storml...@yahoogroups.com From: storml...@typhoon2000.ph Date: Sat, 17 May 2008 07:31:01 +0800 Subject: TS HALONG (COSME) approaching Western Luzon... [Update #006]
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SAT 17 MAY 2008 Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 006 Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
TROPICAL STORM HALONG (COSME) INCHING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF ZAMBALES AND NORTHERN PANGASINAN...WINDS NOW CLOCKED AT 95 KM/HR...STORM WARNING SIGNAL NUMBER TWO (2) NOW HOISTED.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: HALONG is expected to continue intensifying as it moves closer to the Western Coast of Luzon. It shall make landfall over
Ilocos Sur-Ilocos Norte area around 2 AM tomorrow morning (Sunday),
reaching forecast peak intensity of 110 km/hr. The 2 to 5-day long range
forecast shows the storm crossing the NW tip of Northern Luzon passing
thru Balintang Channel & Calayan Island tomorrow morning. It shall then
pass close to the South of Batanes tomorrow afternoon. By early Monday
morning, HALONG shall reach Typhoon strength as it begins Extratropical transition. The system shall be Extratropical before moving inland across Honshu, Japan - just east of Tokyo on Tuesday morning, May 20th.
+ EFFECTS: HALONG's over-all circulation has slightly shrunked over the South China Sea, near the Coast of Zambales. Its inner rain bands con- tinues to spread across the coastal areas of Zambales & Northern Panga- sinan - bringing moderate to heavy rains w/ strong winds not exceeding 85 km/hr today. Deteriorating weather conditions can be expected late today along the Provinces of Ilocos, La Union, Pangasinan & Benguet as
HALONG make its closest approach. Its outer rain bands, on the other hand, continues to affect Western Luzon including Metro Manila & Mindoro.
These bands will continue to bring moderate to sometimes heavy rains &
strong winds not exceeding 60 km/hr today. People living in low-lying areas must seek higher grounds for possible flooding due to the antici- pated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be fully implemented at this time.
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Intensified Southwest (SW) Monsoon which is locally induced by HALONG continues to affect Palawan, Western Vi- sayas including Boracay Island Resort & Southern Tagalog Provinces. The monsoon-affected areas will have cloudy skies with light to mode- rate rains & SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr today. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain /volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas. Meanwhile, big sea waves or surges generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-front areas of the abovemen- tioned areas. Meanwhile, the rest of the Philippines is under the active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough), which will bring scattered rains and thunderstorms most especially in the afternoon or evening.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours! ___________________________________________________________________________ __
TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 17 MAY LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 15.6º N...LONGITUDE 118.6º E DISTANCE 1: 155 KM (83 NM) WNW OF IBA, ZAMBALES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 185 KM (100 NM) WSW OF DAGUPAN CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 215 KM (115 NM) SW OF SAN FERNANDO, LA UNION, PH DISTANCE 4: 285 KM (155 NM) NW OF MANILA, PH
DISTANCE 5: 295 KM (160 NM) SSW OF VIGAN, ILOCOS SUR, PH MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER PEAK WIND GUSTS: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS) SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 985 MILLIBARS (hPa) FORECAST MOVEMENT: NE @ 11 KPH (06 KTS) GENERAL DIRECTION: ILOCOS PROVINCES STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 740 KM (400 NM)/LARGE MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 15 FEET (4.5 METERS) VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME SAT MAY 17 TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 96 HOURS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: #02 - ZAMBALES, TARLAC, PANGASINAN, LA UNION, BENGUET & ILOCOS SUR. #01 - METRO MANILA, BATAAN, BULACAN, PAMPANGA, NUEVA ECIJA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, IFUGAO, KALINGA, MT. PROVINCE, ABRA, QUIRINO, QUEZON, AURORA, ILOCOS NORTE, ISABELA, CAGAYAN, CAVITE, BATANGAS, LAGUNA, RIZAL, & LUBANG IS.
2 AM (18 GMT) 18 MAY: 18.1N 120.6E / 110-140 KPH / NE @ 22 KPH 2 AM (18 GMT) 19 MAY: 21.9N 125.0E / 120-150 KPH / NE @ 50 KPH 2 AM (18 GMT) 20 MAY: 29.7N 133.5E / 100-130 KPH / NNE @ 68 KPH
REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 17 MAY POSITION: 15.2N 118.3E. ^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HALONG) HAS INTENSIFIED GRADUALLY OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AS MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUT- FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS SHOWN EXCELLENT CONSOLIDATION, HOWEVER PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO INHIBIT RAPID INTENSIFICATION...(more)
>> HALONG {pronounced: ha~long}, meaning: A famous picturesque place in Viet Nam which was claimed heritage by UNESCO, lies in the Bacbo Gulf and consists of more than 1,000 isles, most of them are lime- stone islands. Name contributed by: Vietnam. ___________________________________________________________________________ __
PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
> 4 AM (20 GMT) 17 MAY: 15.4N 118.4E / NE @ 15 KPH / 95 kph
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml ___________________________________________________________________________ __
